Corona Virus Daily Thread #24

[Mariner]

Daily thread #23 here:

http://freerepublic.com/focus/chat/3826809/posts?page=1

[LilFarmer]

I would too. Ronan Kelly at Flu Trackers keeps pointing out that ILI cases are up compared to other seasons, for example, here is Florida. If you scroll down to statewide ILI activity you see it is off from other years:

http://www.floridahealth.gov/diseases-and-conditions/influenza/_documents/2020-w11-flu-review.pdf

Ronan has seen this trend in several states, which could point to CV cases that were never diagnosed.

[amorphous]

Thanks for the data links!

[semantic]

Both Italy and US daily CV fatalities dropped from the day before. Anomaly (most likely) or true peaks?

For finance/numbers people, drop me a PM if you want a link to the native sheet. It's pretty easy to run all kinds of projections based on different input assumptions. For example, what is the growth rate required for US to hit 25k deaths within 4 weeks, etc.

You can also experiment with relationships to infections, symptoms, hospitalization, ICU and deaths. That is, if you think 5% of ICU patients succumb, then you would need 20x ICU beds per death. Run that and compare to existing and coming on-line capacity.

[Fury]

My guess is that they thought that so many people would ignore a county stay home order and some counties would fudge numbers?, so they applied it to the state.

[cgbg]

Two days ago and yesterday several of us were running numbers based on a 30% growth rate per day in US cases.

[Fury]

Executive order goes into effect. Based on Homeland Security.

Based on Homeland Security.... what?

[bgill]

Hope Abbott does shut TX down. Too late for our county.

[Varsity Flight]

**** Ohio ****

Order: “you can get dog food” Dewine. Church OK, but larger gatherings “dangerous” Husted

[Tolerance Sucks Rocks]

True, if we’re all mostly staying home, the curve could flatten in a few weeks, making a 12-week shutdown unnecessary.

[RummyChick]

I wish they would stop that. Someone please knock some sense into their head so we dont get president pelosi.

I have been going through hat masks online trying to find something I can adapt to at least help with the issue even if it wont be foolproof.

Imagine seeing this one in the grocery store...lolololol

I wish Amazon would just let me post the pic. I think this one would be a hoot

https://www.amazon.com/Faux-Real-Mens-Trump-Mask/dp/B07KBM7NRT/r

[cgbg]

The problem is, once you have flattened the curve, what do you do next.

It is like the dog catching the UPS truck!

[amorphous]

Recalculate your projection for US from the 21st. Total US numbers aren’t in for today.

[Varsity Flight]

Yep, Dewine said just said that.

[Mariner]

‘There’s a big difference’ between Europe and China, says U.S. infectious-disease expert Fauci

https://www.yahoo.com/finance/m/4e063ab5-a7f3-3031-82e4-aafb84635cf6/%E2%80%98there%E2%80%99s-a-big-difference%E2%80%99.html

One word they will avoid above all others is: Mutation.

But those who have eyes can see.

[Fury]

Ohio’s stay at home order: Here’s what you can and can’t do

- see https://www.wlwt.com/article/ohios-stay-at-home-order-heres-what-you-can-and-cant-do/31878089

[Varsity Flight]

Conference over

Ohio deaths remain at 3, same as yesterday.

[mlo]

"Italy is experiencing a 26x greater impact than US"

Those aren't equivalents. There's no reason to compare the entire US to Italy instead of a particular state, like New York or California. Where the boundaries are draw for this comparison is arbitrary.

[RummyChick]

what good does this do..somebody can just say they are on the way to the grocery store

seeing a lot of people say they are going to the store just to get out of the house..AND they are taking their children

[PA Engineer]

I commented on a previous thread, the cases seem to be following a natural log.

I'm not sure where people are getting their numbers. The doubling appears to be 2.2 days. Testing and asymptomatic numbers are an unknown that no one can quantify or point to sources for. I suspect the majority of testing is for those showing symptoms, including drive up.

I hypothesize we will have 77500 cases by Tuesday evening with deaths following the same rate of increase. This is with medical intervention.

[cgbg]

The US ambassador to Burkina Faso announces he has tested positive for Coronavirus

https://twitter.com/RobbieGramer/status/1241795684715704320

—
An embassy is easy pickings for the virus...