Posted on 03/21/2020 5:43:19 PM PDT by daniel1212
The current coronavirus disease, Covid-19, has been called a once-in-a-century pandemic. But it may also be a once-in-a-century evidence fiasco.
At a time when everyone needs better information, from disease modelers and governments to people quarantined or just social distancing, we lack reliable evidence on how many people have been infected with SARS-CoV-2 or who continue to become infected. Better information is needed to guide decisions and actions of monumental significance and to monitor their impact.
The data collected so far on how many people are infected and how the epidemic is evolving are utterly unreliable. Given the limited testing to date, some deaths and probably the vast majority of infections due to SARS-CoV-2 are being missed. We don’t know if we are failing to capture infections by a factor of three or 300. Three months after the outbreak emerged, most countries, including the U.S., lack the ability to test a large number of people and no countries have reliable data on the prevalence of the virus in a representative random sample of the general population.
The one situation where an entire, closed population was tested was the Diamond Princess cruise ship and its quarantine passengers. The case fatality rate there was 1.0%, but this was a largely elderly population, in which the death rate from Covid-19 is much higher.
This evidence fiasco creates tremendous uncertainty about the risk of dying from Covid-19. Reported case fatality rates, like the official 3.4% rate from the World Health Organization, cause horror — and are meaningless. Patients who have been tested for SARS-CoV-2 are disproportionately those with severe symptoms and bad outcomes. As most health systems have limited testing capacity, selection bias may even worsen in the near future.
The one situation where an entire, closed population was tested was the Diamond Princess cruise ship and its quarantine passengers. The case fatality rate there was 1.0%, but this was a largely elderly population, in which the death rate from Covid-19 is much higher.
Projecting the Diamond Princess mortality rate onto the age structure of the U.S. population, the death rate among people infected with Covid-19 would be 0.125%. But since this estimate is based on extremely thin data — there were just seven deaths among the 700 infected passengers and crew — the real death rate could stretch from five times lower (0.025%) to five times higher (0.625%)....
That’s what happens when mindless panic reigns...one “less than optimal” decision/action is met by another and inertia of less-than-optimal decisions/actions take over and develops it’s own life.
Since this stuff became page 1, I have trying to point out that we need reliable data from reliable tests and people before we rush into harm’s way.
Thanks for your data.
It is? Consider that as Guardian (March 21) reported, about 80% of people who get Covid-19 experience a mild case [WHO said the same] – about as serious as a regular cold – and recover without needing any special treatment.
There is a good chance that none of them were infected. I hope that is eventually proved. The alternatives might be ugly.
Actually your post was in regards to the Diamond Princess (Jap. port) while we were responding to Grand Princess, whose passengers already were quarantined off the coast of San Francisco for five days, then went into quarantine at Travis Air Force Base in Fairfield for 14-days. But you condemn them for not going into possibly more quarantine, with false positives also being a risk, even though they likely would not have Covid or be infectious after that time.
They’ve been busy composing studies that show rifles are a public health threat.
Thanks for linking that article. I’m not a statistician, so it’s a little heavy, but it was very interesting!
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