The Great China Plague of 2020 (daily thread #23)

[Mariner]

Yesterday's thread here:

http://freerepublic.com/focus/chat/3826523/posts?page=1

[Badboo]

N-95s great price but you have to act now

https://www.sportsmansguide.com/product/index/us-municipal-surplus-safe-life-n95-respirator-surgical-masks-25-pack-new?a=2228538

[Lonely Bull]

I like the changing thread title.

I don't, if only because a constantly mutating title makes searching harder. Interested readers should be able to use the site's search function pretty quickly, without having to wade needlessly through the index.

[goodnesswins]

I have a question. Lotsa people are ordering takeout or using drive thrus...even taking it to nursing homes for their elders (some in our family) Doesn’t anyone question the safety of that...from packaging, to the food itself, ie salads, bakery, etc.)?

[Pollard]

Should have added /s

[cgbg]

Italy numbers up for today:

Total Cases: 53,578

New Cases: 6,557

Total Deaths: 4,825

New Deaths: 793

---

Population of Italy: 62.1M

Percent confirmed infections: 0.1%

Needed to reach herd immunity: 60%

---

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

[StAnDeliver]

FairGrounds racetrack, NOLA.

It's Louisiana Derby Day.

[Mariner]

Half of All Coronavirus Cases in New York Are People Under 50 Years Old: Cuomo

https://www.thedailybeast.com/half-of-all-coronavirus-cases-in-new-york-are-people-under-50-years-old-gov-cuomo-says

[scouter]

Some analysis and discussion...

The Case Fatality Rate (CFR) for CLOSED CASES (based on official published numbers) for various locations are listed below:

China - 4.3% (obviously bogus)
Italy - 44.0% (Overwhelmed)
Spain - 64.2% (Overwhelmed??)
United States - 65.7% (Low sample size)
Germany - 26.4% (Low sample size)
Iran - 16.9%
France - 22.1%
S. Korea - 3.8%
Switzerland - 81%
UK - 73.5%

For those who are comparing this to the published mortality rates, understand that the Mortality Rate and the Case Fatality Rate are not the same thing, even though their names might give the impression that they are. The numbers I've posted are calculated as deaths/closed cases, where a closed case is one where the patient either died or recovered. It does not include those who are still sick or who have the disease and remain undiagnosed. Thus, it answers a different question than statistics (like the mortality rate) that include those people. It answers the question If I am diagnosed with this disease, how likely am I to die from it?

CFR is also frequently calculated over a period of time, which is appropriate for diseases such as cancer. For example, it could be calculated to answer the question If I am diagnosed with pancreatic cancer, how likely am I to die within the next year?

So it is perfectly legitimate to calculate the statistic as I have. You just have to know what cases are included in the denominator to begin to understand the question that the number is answering.

Case Fatality Rates are used as one indication among several of the severity of an illness. A disease with a low CFR that is widely prevalent or contagious will not kill many people. On the other hand, a highly contagious disease with a high CFR can end up killing many, many people. And of course, the worst case scenario is a disease that is both highly contagious and has a high CFR. It is arguable, at least (and in my personal opinion, already demonstrated) that this is that case with COVID-19, or Coronavirus.

There are many factors that can influence a CFR. Here's a list of just some of them:

• How many people have been tested
• Ability of the local health care system to accurately diagnose the disease. This includes the accuracy of their testing methods.
• The ability of the local health care system to accurately collect and report data. This includes the political will to be transparent.
• The ability and willingness of political and health care decision makers to take early action.
• The unique strain of the virus that is predominant in a given location
• The ability of the health care system in that location to treat the number of patients with the disease. This includes numbers of hospital beds, availability of medications, ventilators, etc., number of uninfected health care personnel, etc.
• The experience the medical personnel in any given area have with the disease, and their access to information from other professionals
• The season of the year (although it's not clear that's relevant with Coronavirus, and there are indications it is not)
• Genetics
• The prevalence of other diseases and health conditions in the local community, including age, diabetes, obesity, lung disease (think of places with polluted air), poverty, malnutrition, etc.

I find it interesting to note that the only places with a CFR in the single digits (as I have calculated it) are in Asia. I don't know what that means. It could be simply bad data reporting. Or it could be a genetic factor.

[Jane Long]

VP says we are now in to Day 6 of the 15 Days to Slow the Spread.

[Mariner]

Our own little Wuhan...

Coronavirus Update: NYC’s Javits Center On List For COVID-19 Field Hospital

https://newyork.cbslocal.com/2020/03/21/coronavirus-update-nycs-javits-center-to-become-massive-field-hospital/

[Redcitizen]

Thank you for keeping us supplied with essentials items. I appreciate your work.

[dakine]

I’m still having to go to work... Traffic has been glorious... I need to start an under/over pool on how many speeding tickets I’ll receive during the duration of this shutdown/slowdown...

[Pollard]

This FEMA guy is a fellow masshole(I don’t live there anymore)

[Freee-dame]

If you live in a state with lots of cameras checking your speed, you could be getting many tickets. Take care.

[TigerClaws]

Los Angeles county not testing the public. Says it too late for that.

[Pollard]

They might be giving a bit leniency right now

[Pollard]

I moved away from one of those States

[9YearLurker]

I don’t think I want “Great” and “China” to be used in the same phrase.

[stuck_in_new_orleans]

” Many customers admitting that their trip to Walmart is out of boredom. They aren't giving each other space. In fact, they are getting closer than usual, face to face.”

Oh stop. Nobody is getting closer in Walmart than usual.

[Redcitizen]

At some point we have to accept a certain amount of risk. I think for the most part the process is sanitary and safe considering disposable packaging is used.