Posted on 03/20/2020 7:28:07 PM PDT by NRx
New York State’s long-feared surge of coronavirus cases has begun, thrusting the medical system toward a crisis point.
In a startlingly quick ascent, officials reported on Friday that the state was closing in on 8,000 positive tests, about half the cases in the country. The number was 10 times higher than what was reported earlier in the week.
In the Bronx, doctors at Lincoln Medical and Mental Health Center say they have only a few remaining ventilators for patients who need them to breathe. In Brooklyn, doctors at Kings County Hospital Center say they are so low on supplies that they are reusing masks for up to a week, slathering them with hand sanitizer between shifts.
Some of the jump in New York’s cases can be traced to significantly increased testing, which the state began this week. But the escalation, and the response, could offer other states a glimpse of what might be in store if the virus continues to spread. Gov. Andrew M. Cuomo on Friday urged residents to stay indoors and ordered nonessential businesses to keep workers home.
State officials have projected that the number of coronavirus cases in New York will peak in early May. Both the governor and Mayor Bill de Blasio have used wartime metaphors and analogies to paint a grim picture of what to expect. Officials have said the state would need to double its available hospital beds to 100,000 and could be short as many as 25,000 ventilators.
As it prepares for the worst-case projections, the state is asking retired health care workers to volunteer to help. The city is considering trying to turn the Jacob K. Javits Convention Center in Manhattan into a makeshift hospital.
(Excerpt) Read more at nytimes.com ...
We should urge our politicians to find out what kind of success/or failure the 3 Chinese clinical trials are having with using high dose intravenous Vitamin C to treat the acute respiratory syndrome phase of Covid-19.
Personally, I have taken 3 to 6 grams a day of C for over 45 years to deal with my allergies—house dust, cool weather molds, cigarette smoke, and ragweed. I vary the dose depending on whether my sinuses are blocked and sometimes sneezing. Vitamin C is anti toxin, anti histamine, and needed to grow our immune system white blood cells. ALso I space it out over every 6 or 8 hours. Recently I have increased my Vitamin D to 2000 to 5000 IU a day depending on seasonal sun exposure. Apparently D acts like a hormone affected around 2,000 of our genes operations. I got this recommendation from my son who is in Special Forces and has suffered from winter depression.
The people live on different floors in the same building.
Actually 12755+91540=104295 completed cases.(deaths +recovered)...then 12755/104295 and you get your running death rate vs total completed cases we know about so far or .122 or 12.2 percent.(or did you subtract the Chinese numbers already?) 12.2 percent...hmmm my 11 percent figures have gone upwards.
If you take out Chinese recovered and reported death rates then the numbers are starker... 9500 deaths + 20540 total recovered)=30040 closed cases that we know about then 9500/30040=.314 or 31.4 percent in the rest of the world...Italy is skewing the numbers higher but I haven’t yet decided to figure the numbers without China and Italy. iran I haven’t decided on....I feel like they are putting out higher numbers in a sort of median way...mixing a little fiction with truth which would be very Muslim of them but I’ve kept them in for now.
Let me see if I can subtract out Italy, Iran and China...
I didn’t mean to say Italy was lying or over exaggerating...I’m just curious about what the rates are in the rest of the world without Italy or China or Iran...maybe I’ll do it when the mood strikes.
In America, NYC is our big skewing source now...we’ll need a few days to watch how admissions and deaths are going. I expect a very high death rate initially but recoveries will take 1-3 weeks to fully show up to push the death rate curve down against the totals of completed or resolved cases.
Confirmed Dead Survive Mort
World 297,090 12,755 91,540 12.2%
-China 81,304 3,259 71,857 4.3%
-Italy 53,578 4,825 6,072 44.3%
-Iran 20,610 1,556 7,635 16.9%
141,598 3,115 5,976 34.3%
34.3% world wide without CII? Yuck!
I can't easily recover retrospective data to use The Lancet's method of offsetting recoveries and deaths by two weeks. This gives a more accurate final number as it takes into account that it's longer to recover than die.
IOW, that 34.3% is artificially high due to the rapid rise in cases. JHU CSSE data as of 3/21/20 10:43 PDT
Nor did I think you meant Italy was lying, and I agree they are an anomaly, so I took them out.
Already did it, see above...
True it is not a one to one correlation.
But my point is that we handle the 480,000 deaths each year and plan to do so forever I guess and don’t destroy the known world over it.
Animals our size which make their own Vitamin C, which is most animals, typically make 2 to 4 grams a day when NOT under stress. I have been taking 3 to 6 grams a day spread over taking every 6 or 8 hours for over 45 years.. When my allergies are active I take the larger amounts. I am currently a healthy 81 years old. I have taken as much as 24 grams in one day with a severe flu, with no burning urine or acid farts, so apparently my body was happy to keep it inside. I also was once helping a woman in the wilderness who had been stung by 3 yellow jackets in the neck. She had forgotten her bee allergy kit at home. Her eyes were swollen shut, she was choking, and her body was swollen all over. I crushed 10 grams of C, mixed in a glass of water and had her drink it all. In 20 minutes her eyes were open, she had stopped choking, and her body swelling was shrinking. I spent the next 8 hours with her giving her 5 grams of C every hour. Finally she said she felt well enough to sleep so I left her with a small bottle of C to take as she felt she needed. I was told she hiked out 3 miles the next day. She never reported any burning urine or acid gas. The 3 Chinese clinical trials are using 24 grams IV. at the acute phase of the severe respiratory syndrome. I hope we get some news from them soon.
Meanwhile, if I had symptoms and could not get into a hospital with a respirator, I would treat myself like I did with the poor woman stung by yellow jackets. If MILDLY ill I would take 2 or 3 grams to start, and another gram every hour or two until I had the urine/bowel symptoms. Then I would reduce the amount taken and spread to every 3 or 4 hours. For SEVERE symptoms I would increase to the amounts I used with the severely allergic woman who was stung. In giving gram amounts to myself, my husband, and my children when we had fevers, I found there would typically be a 2 degree drop in temperature—104 to 102, 103 to 101 and 102 to 100. I did not try to reduce to lower as fever does help kill infective organisms. I hope this information is useful to someone who finds their local hospital is too full. We need to keep our FReepers alive, even the ones over 80.
I don’t know if anyone has already thought of this, sure they have, but normally nurses on the floors only wear masks when going into designated isolation rooms. Now every time they go into ANY patient’s room they have to put on a mask. Imagine the numerous times they go in and out of every room on a unit and putting on a new mask each time. Sure adds up to a lot of masks
I’m a data analyst. You can’t use recovered cases because it is meaningless in this case because you can catch it again. Recovered just means you have re-entered the subject population. You use confirmed vs deaths because deaths are a subset of confirmed. Deaths and recovered are mutually exclusive. You cannot be dead and recovered so it doesn’t make sense to use them in a ratio.
Thanks for the facts. We have a common point to discuss starting with this. Italy which has a regional hotspot has a mean age over 65. It is the second oldest region in the EU. Additionally the smoking rates are well in excess of 60%. Literature suggests that the greater comorbidity is long term smoking. HTN has been on and off the list. It I understand it is more the predisposition of using ACEi than the actually condition. Correct me if I am incorrect
As for transmission time. At first was the doomsday two weeks. Recent literature show mean incubation 3-7 days with five being the central tendency both mean median and modal. What else is unclear is what is the shedding period. If asymptomatic cases exist then we can surmise it would be hard to determine if there was a presymptom shedding. Hard to tell as most cases are mild or self limited (85-90%).
As for timeline. Symptoms to hospital +1.2 days. To ICU if necessary + 2 days. I also think that some of this may have previously been managed on the floor with NIPPV however with the panic I think we are possibly intubating more than under ordinary circumstance would have required ETT. This may be skewing the icu cases. In my experience thus far it looks like routine ARDS. Not seeing anything all that different both in terms of course and severity. I haven’t really seen any Pa/Fi gradients <100:1. Most are in the 150 range.
Assuming am incubation as described on the literature the time is at hand in the US. I don’t think our CoVId population is like the Italian population with CoVId. We shall see.
I will disagree with the assumption that you can catch it again. Scant evidence as to that
We’ll know in a few weeks when the “recovering” recover in bulk and their numbers will pad down the ongoing running death numbers to the customary .1 to .5 percent we always expect such viruses to be....at least what we always expect them to do....at least what we always expected.....
I’m worried about the youngsters that now are showing more susceptibility and are coming down with it then what was touted and always expected....
I worry about babes already in utero with mothers who get the covid while pregnant with them. There have been pregnant mothers and newborns who got it when their moms got sick afterwards... I worry about mothers surviving a bout while pregnant who end up needing ventilatory support...yeah I know what they said and we should always have expected them to be okay....what we should have always expected...
The numbers in the rest of the world in terms mortality are of high because the most sensitive and elderly are being taken out earlier in the disease process...I think the number will go down....if you want a happier number....divide the 3115 figure into total cases of 141598 and you get 2.2 percent mortality rates not counting the big three...it might be that the final death rate settles in that range but if 50 million end up getting this thing, 1.2 million people still will have perished but with another 10 million possibly hospitalized or will have needed to be hospitalized and rationing of care instituted...the total rate goes back up into the 4-5 percent ranges simply because health care facilities broke down.
Regardless this millennial generation and Y and Z and have had a wake up dose of reality....and I myself at age 58 and still working in critical nursing and I’m staring mortality in the face...I shall praise the Lord and do what I can!
Who said the organ donors had a virus?
Accident and gun shot victims donate organs too.
Transplants are not going up because elective cases are forbidden. Transplants go up when organs become available.
No. The statistic is this “Out of the confirmed cases, what percentage of cases have died?” Clearly adding the recovered to the dead makes no sense from a data standpoint.
You can divide Recovered by Confirmed and get “”Out of the confirmed cases, what percentage of cases have recovered?”
Your stat is “Out of the recovered and dead cases, what percentage of cases have died?” Deaths are occurring in the confirmed cases, not the recovered cases.
It could be possible but they are definitely saying it isn’t impossible.
The organ donors didn’t have the virus. People are on ventilators for reasons other than disease.
The US numbers are horrifying in your statistic
Deaths: 274 Rec: 147
65% death rate. Yikes.
In my state, there is a 100% chance of dying. 2 deaths, 0 recovered.
Actually if the virus I suspect this has been cooked up with is correct, you only have antibodies for about 3 months.
We are going to have to watch China and see if they get another surge starting about now. And I am hearing there are some cases perking up. The question is if they surge again taking out the ‘second time around.’
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