Posted on 03/20/2020 7:28:07 PM PDT by NRx
New York State’s long-feared surge of coronavirus cases has begun, thrusting the medical system toward a crisis point.
In a startlingly quick ascent, officials reported on Friday that the state was closing in on 8,000 positive tests, about half the cases in the country. The number was 10 times higher than what was reported earlier in the week.
In the Bronx, doctors at Lincoln Medical and Mental Health Center say they have only a few remaining ventilators for patients who need them to breathe. In Brooklyn, doctors at Kings County Hospital Center say they are so low on supplies that they are reusing masks for up to a week, slathering them with hand sanitizer between shifts.
Some of the jump in New York’s cases can be traced to significantly increased testing, which the state began this week. But the escalation, and the response, could offer other states a glimpse of what might be in store if the virus continues to spread. Gov. Andrew M. Cuomo on Friday urged residents to stay indoors and ordered nonessential businesses to keep workers home.
State officials have projected that the number of coronavirus cases in New York will peak in early May. Both the governor and Mayor Bill de Blasio have used wartime metaphors and analogies to paint a grim picture of what to expect. Officials have said the state would need to double its available hospital beds to 100,000 and could be short as many as 25,000 ventilators.
As it prepares for the worst-case projections, the state is asking retired health care workers to volunteer to help. The city is considering trying to turn the Jacob K. Javits Convention Center in Manhattan into a makeshift hospital.
(Excerpt) Read more at nytimes.com ...
we're all in this together....the right opinion is usually in the middle somewhere...
this too shall pass.....
"Have I not commanded you, be strong and courageous. Do not be afraid. Do not be discouraged. For the Lord your God will be with you wherever you go"..
get it together people....
Stop admitting people over 70. No shortage.
86% of people infected have no symptoms at all – they are basically immune.
Of the 14% who show symptoms, 82% of those are mild and resolve themselves.
So .86 + .14 x .82 = .86 + .12 = .86 +.1148 = .9748 ~ 97.5% either have no systems or a normal mild two week cold.
This leaves the unlucky 14% x 18% = .14 x .18 = .0252 ~ 2.5% who are severe or critical, almost all of whom are elderly and with existing conditions like cancer, leukemia, heart disease, smokers, vapers, emphysema, liver and kidney disease.
About 3 million people die (a little less than 1%) in the United States each year from all causes, mostly elderly again, it doesn’t harm society. So now, at the worst, we may - may have 7 million die this year, again mostly elderly, - it will not affect anything to lose these people, they are just dying a couple of years sooner than they would normally have.
99% of Italians who have died had other illnesses.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-18/99-of-those-who-died-from-virus-had-other-illness-italy-says
The average age of those who’ve died from the virus in Italy is 79.5
State Governors are destroying our economy and society to “protect the vulnerable” –the extra 1.5% very oldf who are already sick and would die in a few years anyway. This is insanity.
They are yelling “Fire!” in a crowded theatre, when all there is a cigarette smoldering in a corner.
The next thing will be the cancellation of elections to maintain their new dictatorial powers.
More will die from shortages of blood from cancellation of blood drives than will die from the virus – and these deaths will be the young and otherwise healthy – car accidents., etc.
Minorities should be up in arms! Their future is being sacrificed for a small number of old already sick white people near the end of their lives.
No it was a bad analogy.
I don’t live my life based on could be or maybe, conjecture or speculation.
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When it is speculation based on science and numbers you better listen.
Let’s presume you were in the room with the doctors and scientists advising President Trump whose advice he obviously is taking. So when they were finished you get a turn to speak and you say what you just wrote to President Trump:
You’ve been played like a fine tune fiddle. What would I do? NOT THIS. Pretty much live normally; isolate and treat those who have it.
Did you see how Trump handled the child reporter today? How do you think it would go for you?
But you and the other child scientists here feel free to keep the circle jerk going. Just Thank God that an adult is handling the actual problem.
you didn’t list March Madness.....grrrr....
What’s your hourly rate? Do you get higher pay for infectious diseases?
They’d have to cleanse them from top to bottom, first.
Other than that, it’s a good plan. There’s enough of them located around the country in the heavily populated areas.
Germany will not be another Italy. The populace is better organized and disciplined. I know this fits the stereotype, but there are reasons for it. The Italians are less likely to follow the rules and more likely to ignore whatever the government says. Organizing Italians is like herding cats.
No doubt the German numbers will rise as will ours. But they will take whatever actions are necessary as a society to deal with it. There is a distinct difference between Northern and Southern Europe. Having lived in Italy, Greece, Finland, Poland, and Germany as well as traveling throughout the region, I can predict who will and will not handle the pandemic well.
Look what is happening in Hong Kong and Singapore. They have dealt well with the virus. Both are up and running. Again, the US is not Italy. We are not going to suffer mass casualties.
Is that what all the dead squirrels were doing? Playing soccer? With acorns? /s
1) Those who only get a two week cold, but who are fully infectious to others.
2) Those others become infectious.
3) Finally the virus lands on someone in that 2.5%.
The problem is, it's not just, "oh, you're 80, fall down and die (wipes away tear) ok, that's over with."
Instead, it's 3-5 WEEKS in the hospital in the ICU, on a ventilator. Oh, and you're contagious to the doctors and nurses all that time. Oh, and the air in your room is infectious; ideally, you need a negative airflow room.
So what happens is, if you don't do really strict distancing, pretty soon the hospitals fill up.. And not just with out-of-it Bernies and Cat Ladies; I can't remember the number offhand, but i'ts like 35% of the ICU folks in Italy are ages 20-50.
So all the ICU beds (not a lot of spare capacity at the best of times) fill up; and we already see elective surgeries canceled. How long till cancer, accident victims, gunshot, stroke, heart attack victims, get crowded out/? And then you have the aftereffects for those sickened -- loss of 20% -30% of lung function; possible sterility (the testes are loaded with the ACE2 receptor); possible cardiac and kidney damage.
We're trying to head that off.
While I believe and hope the chloroquine drugs work, we cannot blithely assume that they do, or that they are side-effect free for all patients.
Those are words associated with panic. It’s interesting for analysis, that we’ve seen it with the adjunct of projection so many times.
Okay. Whatever. Believe it is panic and projection. Then the interesting thing for analysis is why people like you are trying to induce panic in people?
Thank you for bringing some sanity and knowledge into this thread. The hysteria over this virus is unbelievable.
The media has really done a number on many Americans, including many on this site. They really believe that this is 1918, part 2.
The fact that you are a Critical Care Doctor gives you instant credibility. I trust you more than Hillary’s friend, Dr. Fauci. That man is doing nothing but instigating alarm and anxiety among Americans.
Carry on as normal, and put additional resources into the hospitals and medical facilities, where they might be needed. And then shut my fucking trap so as not to make the problem worse than it needs to be.
The longer it goes on, the harder it will be to rebuild. Many small businesses will not survive. There will be no return to the status quo ante. Trillions of dollars of wealth have been lost. Millions have applied for unemployment. There will be negative growth in the second quarter. Consumer confidence has been shaken.
These reports of the country not getting out of this until July or August would be devastating. We need to start resuming our economic activity within the next two or three weeks or we are screwed. China is up and running.
Uh huh. You think the Dem trolling of "Republicans want to take your Social Security" and "Push Granny off a cliff in the wheelchair" were bad BEFORE...
I’m guessing his granny is over 70 and he needs the money.
This compares case rates in different countries, with some qualitative descriptions of social differences between them which might influence the curve.
The "two weeks behind" mean "Italy had their 100th confirmed case about two weeks before we did."
I predict the PIGS countries will not handle it well.
I wonder if running the masks and clothes that is exposed through a clothes dryer until they get hot would help. When I get home from shopping I do that with my coat, jacket and gloves. Then pour a spoonful of 91% alcohol in my hands and rub until dry.
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