“could” and “computer modelling” Pure speculation.
“If you’re undetected you could be infected!”
“If the glove don’t fit, you must acquit!” ;)
and the same thing can be said of other colds and flus.
Uhhh.. how do they know this if it’s undetected?
So not all that sick, right?
Uninjected, unsuspected and undetected.
So using the https://ncov2019.live/data dashboard data, as of 3.17.2020, we have 5,598 cases in the U.S. and 98 deaths. If 86% are undetected, that means there are 39,986 infections (5,598/(1-0.86). 39,986/98 deaths equals a mortality rate of 0.25%. This is higher than the flu at 0.1%, but a far cry from what the public health officials are claiming and insufficient reason to quarantine the nation and ruin the lives of small business owners and their employees.
No. It’s 72.457905531%
If only 14 percent get sick why are closing down the country..????
The death rate looks like it is a lot lower if 86% are not sick
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2020/03/16/diamond-princess-mysteries/
So I dug around and found an analysis of the situation, with the catchy title of Estimating the infection and case fatality ratio for COVID-19 using age-adjusted data from the outbreak on the Diamond Princess cruise ship (PDF), so I could see what the outcomes were.
In addition to the low rate of disease incidence (83% didn’t get it), the curious part of Figure 2 for me is that there’s not a whole lot of difference between young and old passengers in terms of how many didn’t get coronavirus. For example, sixty to sixty-nine-year-old passengers stayed healthier than teenagers. And three-quarters of the oldest group, those over eighty, didn’t get the virus. Go figure. Buncha virus resistant old geezers, I guess …
Next, slightly less than half the passengers (48.6% ± 2.0%) who got the disease showed NO symptoms. If this disease is so dangerous, how come half the people who got it showed no symptoms at all? Here’s the breakdown by age:
So, in the US, with about 6000 confirmed cases, that would mean about 43,000 are actually infected. And with about 100 deaths, that would mean a ratio of deaths/infected of about 0.23%. That looks only somewhat worse than seasonal flu statistics, but maybe it’s too soon to tell.
Abraham Lincoln
Study says: I made up some numbers that sound really cool.
FYI, I am 99% certain that myself, my family, and some co-workers had the China virus back in early February and did not know it. We all had the symptoms, which are very unusual. Our coughs were really dry. We all had shortness of breath. Very weird. I could run on the treadmill for 3 miles and have no effects, but if I quickly walked up a flight of stairs I had to catch my breath to even have a conversation. We were all able to work, but felt like sh**. 2 of us went to the doctor and the flu tests were negative. We were told it was “probably” some type of bronchitis. Additionally, the local school kids and teachers in my central Maryland county were getting the same thing in January/February. That’s why I think this entire melodrama is complete b.s. This virus had already spread weeks ago, but yet nobody was dropping dead like in Italy or China.
i say 74.32%
So, if you’ve got it, but don’t feel it, with no affects, what exactly is this all about ?
Nothing. Nothing except carrying the disease to elders who are at much greater risk. That should be the focus.
I chronologically qualify as one of those at greater risk, but still believe this is massively overblown. Certainly not worth shutting down the country and ruining life savings and the economy.
When people hear “confirmed cases” they stupidly believe that all cases are known. Very few people have been tested, very few. The confirmed cases are appearing to be those with symptoms. Many people may have had this virus months ago and it passed by them with little to no symptoms.
This places the death rate far, far lower than simply using confirmed cases to dead as a ratio.
So what explains Italy?
Anyone who believes this is massively overblown and certainly not worth shutting down the country and ruining life savings and the economy...is clearly not a Democrat or a Liberal. QED.