Posted on 03/17/2020 8:36:27 AM PDT by Mariner
Thread #18 is here:
http://freerepublic.com/focus/chat/3825150/posts?page=1
Just multiply all the official case numbers by 10 — probably put us in the ballpark of the true number of victims. As for the deaths multiplier, I have no idea. I assume the vast majority of undiagnosed cases are/were mild, well over the 80% mild-moderate case rate in the ones that are actually confirmed.
I’m thinking of making a liquor store run before my governor (Hogan) gets around to shutting them down. Somebody left one of our office microwaves — there’s a skeleton crew of essential personnel in our building nowadays and Guess Who is one of them — a mess. Left his grease-stained paper towel he put under his dish there (a usual occurrence) but the glass tray was skewed to one side of the microwave, and the ring with the little wheels on it that causes the tray to revolve was skewed in the other direction!
Given the seriousness of our circumstances, you would think the little numbnutz would clean up after himself, but NO! So I ended up removing my coffee cup back from the microwave after inserting it into that mess and using a disinfecting cloth on my coffee cup, my hands and my desk where I temporarily put the cup! I seriously am beginning to need some beer to put up with these people, as well as all the slowpokes who are still in abundance on the road, in spite of the lighter traffic.
I’m 0 neg as well. I’ve had well over 70/80 blood transfusions. And many platelets too.
RC blood bank are low right now since people are canceling drives and appointments. But, one thing they are always low in is platelets. I had to wait an extra day a couple of times while my levels were 5.
Thank you got your donations!!!
If the census is every 10 years, what were they trying to collect in 2015. I recall census type forms.
Exactly.
Good analysis.
Would think if people woth less of the symptoms now are getting tested that it might go down because of that too.
At any rate looked like needed and welcomed good news by your analysis.
Switzerland is shutting its borders
https://www.swissinfo.ch/eng/covid-19_coronavirus—the-situation-in-switzerland/45592192
Germany is flying their people home
No more than 10 people gathering may be one of the issues.
Geez just saying that sounds so strange.
Well, I’m kinda OT! Anyway:
I have 3 of those too. (Well, one is already at Mom’s.) They do not seem to suffer the safety-thermostat-breaker problems of other types. And, being large and not getting so hot, they are inherently safer.
However, I still prefer the fan-less quartz element heaters (tower type) better for spot heating. They are much easier to move around even when running. (Handle on back.) They radiate very little heat to the back and sides, basically putting the heat right where you want it. And, they feel nice - like a campfire, but the heat carries better due to it’s directionality / being less affected by “inverse square” drop-off with distance. Mom likes to stay in her powered recliner in the middle of a large, open kitchen-dining-living room area. One quartz tower positioned several feet away & running at it’s lower setting (about 800 watts) keeps her happy most of the time.* She even sleeps there, to the dismay of her Doctor. If she moves to the dining room table, we move the heater over near there. (I did make up an “industrial” extension cord to facilitate that move without unplugging / replugging in the heater. But I have a little more background in wiring, up to 10-20 KW, than the average Joe or Josey, too.)
*On days so cold the heat pump / main heat doesn’t really keep up in that area, a small “heater-fan” that’s literally almost under her recliner headrest kicks in @ 1/2 power occasionally. There’s just no place for anything larger, near her. I once saw a “mini” oil filled heater, which would be better (quieter) for that spot, but I have not seen it in stores, recently. (I always buy this stuff on clearance in the spring, anyway.)
The oil filled heaters would be better if we wanted to heat the entire space, but, it takes all 3 of them, they are big, and Mom’s still not as warm. (We tried.) At that point, it’s actually no more expensive to crank up the thermostat on the main HVAC, which usually just runs the heat pump.
In the bathroom (Mom’s other “most lived in spot”), space is so tight that the only option is a small heater-fan that only goes on when Mom’s in there.
As far as the virus reduction goes, the more I think about it, we are past the really cold weather anyway, so turning up the main heat, staying with what’s downstairs for “supplemental” (if even needed), and closing off vents upstairs should be ok even with the fan exhausting out the upstairs window. We can spot heat upstairs if needed when up there.
BTW, I’m not gonna do this @ Mom’s, but I added a wall / ceiling mount quartz heater in my wife’s and my bedroom @ our home. (It’s like a tower heater turned sideways and up near the ceiling, pointing at about a 30 deg. angle at the bed.) (There’s NO room for an oil filled heater or any other significant floor footprint.) It catches my upper torso if I’m at my computer desk, and “floods” the bed. It’s 750 watt setting is almost too warm on all but the very coldest nights. I wake up sweaty, sometimes. (Ok, my wife has the warmest skin on the planet, I think. And we have a nice comforter too - amazingly warm for the weight. $30 on clearance @ Big Lots, some years back...)
In my shop I actually have one of those ancient dual “ceramic heater coil” units for “directed” heat. Bought it off eBay ~ 15 years ago. It still works and is great!
Basically, point is, I have ‘em all: Each type heater has it’s applications, depending also on one’s preferences / needs. Gotta be VERY careful with those heater fans, though.
the rest of my post was all the ‘hot’ countries that currently have cases. French Polynesia and Sudan were a sweltering 90 degrees today so they should have been disease free in what, 2 days? 85 in So. Africa. 95 in Nigeria. 98 in Thailand. But they all have cases. The virus seems to really like 101 degrees. Since that’s the tell-tale temp of an infected body.
40C or 104F for an hour - it might work on surfaces but it’s not going to work in living lung tissue. The body will try to cool the lung. It’s a losing battle. But if you want to do the sweat lodge thing, go for it. I won’t
We cannot definitively say that heat is a limiter on anything but external surfaces because we don’t have a study on letting human body temp get to 104 for an hour although there is anecdotal evidence that it’s not going to kill the virus.
re: Quercetin. doesn’t mesh with a lot of medications
https://www.webmd.com/vitamins/ai/ingredientmono-294/quercetin
But if you’re talking zinc uptake, what you really want to talk about is hydroxychloroquine (less side effects) or chloroquine (more side effects) - but then you have to consider the effect on the QT interval and potential for heart arrhythmias at clinical doses. And, since the study was based on Korean treatment, and not a double-blind study, it’s still all experimental, isn’t it? That is, also not a definitive cure.
here’s two videos on zinc, watch them in order
the first covers in vitro experiments:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Eeh054-Hx1U';
this one goes deeper and discusses the potential of hydroxychloroquine as a zinc pump
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U7F1cnWup9M
enjoy
Possibly the jump in cases is because people are finally being tested. Many couldn’t be tested because lack of kits.
Yes. Most of those heaters are 1200 to 1500 watt consumption with both elements on. 1500 watts on a 120 v. circuit is 12.5 amps. Considerably more when they cycle on. Most house circuits are 15 amp or 20 amp. I always use 1 per circuit, and that on 20A circuits I know have no other heavy draws on them.
Also, it’s a good idea to upgrade the outlets to commercial grade 20A outlets. The 15A residential grade outlets are prone to failure after a while, under heavy loads. Ditto for the plugs on the heaters. It’s always a good idea to run one on “high” and, 10 / 15 minutes later make sure the plug (or your outlet) is not getting hot! Check ‘em again every month or so. I’ve taken plugs apart and the damn Chinese just laid the wire against the back end of the plug blade... If one has the slightest doubt, go to a big box building supply store and buy a heavy duty plug as a replacement. (If not familiar with such work, find someone who is.)
glad I saw your post, scouter. I think this is right up your alley.
How does the below work for projecting cases? Say, if there is 10 deaths, does that project out to 1,000 cases or 8,000 potential cases??
Thanks.
“...For example, if modelers assume a case-fatality ratio of 1 percent, and that it usually takes 15 days for an infected person to die, then they know a death reported today in a specific region means that 100 people were likely infected there 15 days ago. Add in the time it takes cases to double—Edmunds says it seems to take five days—then modelers can estimate that over those 15 days the number of cases swelled to 800. So, for every death in a region, that means about 800 others are already infected, most of whom will not have been identified. This pattern was verified in Italy, Edmunds says, which as of today has reported 12,462 cases and 827 deaths. When officials tested people living near where someone had died from the disease, in many cases they found hundreds of others were already carrying the virus.
https://www.the-scientist.com/news-opinion/modelers-struggle-to-predict-the-future-of-the-covid-19-pandemic-67261
FINANCIAL
Mnuchin warns senators of 20% unemployment without coronavirus stimulus
U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin warned Republican senators on Tuesday that failure to act on a proposed coronavirus …
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-usa-unemployment-idUSKBN21502N
TOKYO (Reuters) - Shares in Japan’s Fujifilm Holdings Corp (4901.T) surged 15% on Wednesday morning after a Chinese official said the company’s Avigan anti-flu drug appeared to help coronavirus patients recover.
Avigan, also known as Favipiravir, is manufactured by a subsidiary of Fujifilm, which has a healthcare arm although it is better known for its cameras. The drug was approved for use in Japan in 2014.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-fujifilm-idUSKBN215025
USA
Mar 17 -
Trump Administration May Close U.S. Borders to Unauthorized Foreigners Over Coronavirus Risk
Due to the coronavirus pandemic, the Trump administration is considering a plan to shutter the U.S. border with Mexico and ...Asylum seekers would be immediately returned to Mexico under a plan that could take effect in as soon as two days Under the plan, the administration would keep ports of entry open to U.S. citizens, permanent residents and foreigners with legal permission to enter the country.
CALIFORNIA - Ventura County
Coronavirus: Ventura County Orders Individuals Over 75 To Shelter In Place
VENTURA (CBSLA) — Ventura County Tuesday ordered “vulnerable individuals” to shelter in place their place of residence.
Beginning Wednesday, March 18, individuals over 75-years-old, and people over 70-year-old with “unstable comorbidity,” are ordered to shelter in place until April 1.
SANTA CLARA COUNTY
More COVID-19 cases in Santa Cruz County, brings total to 13
Santa Cruz County residents are urged to take measures to protect themselves and the people around them. For local information, residents may visit www.santacruzhealth.org/coronavirus, call 211 or text “coronavirus” to 211211.
SAN BENITO COUNTY
Three positive cases have been reported in San Benito County, with two of those patients recovering, and none have been reported in Monterey County.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/more-covid-19-cases-in-santa-cruz-county-brings-total-to-13/ar-BB11k9HD
SAN JOAQUIN COUNTY
9 people test positive for COVID-19 in San Joaquin County bringing total to 13.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/9-people-test-positive-for-covid-19-in-san-joaquin-county/ar-BB11kvZ5
DAVIS, CA
https://www.kcra.com/article/davis-residents-asked-shelter-in-place-covid-19-spread/31710041
SACRAMENTO, CA
Sacramento woman dead from COVID-19 attended church with others who have virus
Faith Presbyterian confirms on website five members tested positive, others symptomatic
https://www.kcra.com/article/sacramento-woman-dead-from-covid-19-attended-church-others-with-virus/31708146#
CALIFORNIA -
Harrah’s Northern California will suspend its operations as a way to limit the risk of novel coronavirus spreading,
Thunder Valley Casino closes
https://www.kcra.com/article/thunder-valley-casino-temporarily-closing-covid-19-crisis/31706301
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