Posted on 03/13/2020 7:15:22 AM PDT by daniel1212
Officials at the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and epidemic experts from universities around the world conferred last month... Between 160 million and 214 million people in the U.S. could be infected over the course of the epidemic, according to one projection. That could last months or even over a year, with infections concentrated in shorter periods, staggered across time in different communities, experts said. As many as 200,000 to 1.7 million people could die.
And, the calculations based on the C.D.C.’s scenarios suggested, 2.4 million to 21 million people in the U.S. could require hospitalization, potentially crushing the nation’s medical system, which has only about 925,000 staffed hospital beds. Fewer than a tenth of those are for people who are critically ill.
(Excerpt) Read more at nytimes.com ...
“The federal government is ordering all these closures behind the scenes.”
This is a good point. The schools can’t make these kinds of decisions on their own. It’s a boss, asking their boss, asking their boss, all the way up to the fed govt.
So, I counted three (3) “if’s” in two (2) paragraphs. That seems quite convincing to me....
“Trump shouldn’t have used tariffs against China.”
China should move their people up from 3rd world living conditions and shouldn’t be experimenting carelessly with viruses and creating chimeras, Frankencreatures.
You must mean world-wide. We will see. So far its 5,000 and slowing down. And the seasonal flu kills up to 646,000 people worldwide each year .
Trying to pin it down is a fools errand and inflaming panic. Lets deal with reality and not waste time speculating.
It is an on-going tally and comparison.
Then see my response in post 63.
I don’t mean anything other than the speculation is only good for incitement. Let’s deal with the issue.
Meaning details to calm the hysteria.
One is charged with one or the other. The "only the headline and excerpt" readers vs. those who read the comment.
Correct. This is a full-fledged conniption you are trying to bring context and thoughtfulness into. We’ll have none of that on this forum, mister!
Unlike the Flu, children rarely get it or show symptoms, with deaths mainly being that of the aged and infirm - esp. those in quarantine such as nursing homes, as it apparently is more contagious than the flu which did kill 80,000 Americans (2018).
When you calculate worst case, you throw away the IFs... and assume them to be truths.
Reality is, 20 Million came from this article, which I believe is a LOW number if this thing blows up... Nation of 330 Million, wouldn’t take much to top 20 Million cases.
But yielded to it..
But you want worst case based on 20 Million cases in a short time frame:
2-3 Million will be dead.
Period.
That’s the worst case, based on that number of infections.
Now, if you want to talk about what is likely to happen, that’s another story entirely... But these articles that talk about “number of beds” don’t remotely understand what they are talking about... BEDS are not the most limiting resource in fighting something like this... The limiting resource is the ventalator/respirator, and that number is FAR FAR smaller than the number of beds... So if you read anything talking about this and making projections and they talk about “the number of beds”, the estimate at the end will be abjectly wrong..
Open borders or quarantine?
How dare I attempt objectivity. Shoot first and do not ask questions.
But your WCS presumed another "if," "if no vaccine is developed. What do you think the morality count would be for the Flu is that was also the case. 80k here, 650K WW plus what?
And, just as an aside, you haven't been in contact with anyone who might share your objectivity, have you?
Neither. Quarantine if it is warranted. Killing America's economy by shutting down large events..and sending large swaths of people from work..not sure that is the best idea. Maybe at large events they could leave ever other chair empty. Maybe Disney could reduce ticket sales by 50%. At work place send anyone home that has a cough and a high fever?
Ya gotta keep laughing or ya might start screaming.
It’s telling that you didn’t get a substantive reply to your inquiry about a “medium stance” (i.e., they don’t have one).
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.