Coronavirus ‘highly sensitive’ to high temperatures, but don’t bank on summer killing it off, studies say

South China Morning Post ^ | 03/08/2020 | Simone McCarthy

[SeekAndFind]

The virus that causes Covid-19 may have a temperature sweet spot at which it spreads fastest, a new study has suggested, but experts say people should avoid falling into the trap of thinking it will react to seasonal changes in exactly the same way as other pathogens, like those that cause the common cold or influenza.

The study, by a team from Sun Yat-sen University in Guangzhou, the capital of south China’s Guangdong province, sought to determine how the spread of the new coronavirus might be affected by changes in season and temperature.

Published last month, though yet to be peer-reviewed, the report suggested heat had a significant role to play in how the virus behaves.

“Temperature could significantly change Covid-19 transmission,” it said. “And there might be a best temperature for viral transmission.”

The “virus is highly sensitive to high temperature”, which could prevent it from spreading in warmer countries, while the opposite appeared to be true in colder climes, the study said.

As a result, it suggested that “countries and regions with a lower temperature adopt the strictest control measures”.

Many national governments and health authorities are banking on the coronavirus losing some of its potency as the weather warms up, as is generally the case with similar viruses that cause the common cold and influenza.

However, a separate study by a group of researchers including epidemiologist Marc Lipsitch from Harvard’s T.H. Chan School of Public Health, found that sustained transmission of the coronavirus and the rapid growth in infections was possible in a range of humidity conditions – from cold and dry provinces in China to tropical locations, such as the Guangxi Zhuang autonomous region in the far south of the country and Singapore.

[SeekAndFind]

“Weather alone, [such as an] increase of temperature and humidity as the spring and summer months arrive in the Northern Hemisphere, will not necessarily lead to declines in case counts without the implementation of extensive public health interventions,” said the study, which was published in February and is also awaiting scientific review.

[MrEdd]

Depends on where you are.

Where I am spring is humid, summer is dry, and yeah three digit temperatures with dust will kill it off.

[exDemMom]

We cannot assume that this coronavirus will behave as other coronaviruses with respect to weather and temperature. It is an unknown.

[Chauncey Gardiner]

Wait for it.... Blame on climate change

[TroutGuy]

Some rare good news. I say turn off the Air Conditioner this summer at work if it will save lives. Our grandparents lived without air conditioner- we can do so for a summer.

[Paladin2]

Gorebal Warning!

[Starcitizen]

Singapore has it and the (now) the Middle East is getting it. Getting ready to explode numbers-wise in the Philippines, where very few tests were actually given. All tropical countries.

[null and void]

"“Weather alone, [such as an] increase of temperature and humidity as the spring and summer months arrive in the Northern Hemisphere, will not necessarily lead to declines in case counts"

If it did, Singapore wouldn't have case, nor would Australia and Brazil and Indonesia and...

Wash your hands, minimize social contact. Best wishes and good luck!

Bring Out Your Dead

Post to me or FReep mail to be on/off the Bring Out Your Dead ping list.

The purpose of the “Bring Out Your Dead” ping list (formerly the “Ebola” ping list) is very early warning of emerging pandemics, as such it has a high false positive rate.

So far the false positive rate is 100%.

At some point we may well have a high mortality pandemic, and likely as not the “Bring Out Your Dead” threads will miss the beginning entirely.

*sigh* Such is life, and death...

If a quarantine saves just one child's life, it's worth it.

[hsmomx3]

Hmmm...maybe AZ isn’t such a bad place afterall with temps at or above 100 degrees.

[ProtectOurFreedom]

Unless it behaves like polio.

[sanjuanbob]

I don’t know about the rest of you, but I’m heading to Death Valley.

[NittanyLion]

This should be very easy to determine. Investigators should be able to run accelerated and real time stability studies at a variety of temp and humidity conditions and determine with high specificity how the virus reacts. It’s frankly a bit surprising we’re still speculating, someone must know with high confidence.

[bobk333]

The Philippines hadnly one death — a Chinese worker freshly arrived from China. Tehran, in the Middke East, was and is cold. Singapore and Hong Kong have plentiful air conditioning where the virus can be carried from person to person on fanned, cool air.

Is it just a coincidence that hot countries that are too poor to have widespread air conditioning have had almost no cases of the corona virus? These poor countries are often densely populated with poor health practices and no travel bans. Many are next to or near China and have more Chinese per capita traveling there than most other countries that have been infected. Yet they have had almost no cases.

The outbreaks have occurred either in cool places with temperatures in the 40s Fahrenheit (we haven’t seen it in very cold, freezing temperatures) or in hot areas that are more prosperous and are heavily air conditioned.

Here in Seattle, the corona virus epicenter of the United States, the cherry trees will blossom in the next couple of weeks. I am sure the virus will dissipate in April as temperatures ease into the 50s and above.

Calm down. Things will be just fine very soon.

.

[Robert DeLong]

The South will rise again. 8>)

[Starcitizen]

I believe what is actually going on in the Philippines, rather than spokesman for Duterte who is just a Communist Chinese tool of the Communist butcher Xi Jinping.

He fought the DOH when this first hit the Philippines and delayed the banning of flights from Communist China. He ordered that flights from Taiwan be banned for a week for political reasons to please Xi again.

He called out both the Government of Cebu and the Mayor of Cebu as being xenophobic and racist when they wanted to ban Communist Chinese flights from MCIA in Cebu

He continued to allow flights from Xiamen Air from Communist China into Davao, well after the supposed banning of flights

The DOH requested on February 23 to declare a Code Red emergency in the country. Maybe Monday he will approve it.

Lots of articles and posts on Facebook from friends and relatives in Cainta, Tagiug, Cebu about what is really going on there.

[DeplorableGirl]

It’s already high 70s here in Louisiana. Soon to be 90s.
Flip side; the humidity is just cranking up.
Dunno.
No cases here yet. A couple high school groups selfquarenteened after returning from Italy. No one’s tested
positive yet.

[bobk333]

The places with the outbreaks have been in the 40s (no hotter, no colder)— Tehran, Northern Italy, Seattle, New York, etc; or in places with air conditioning

Singapore reports and publishes every transmission in great detail and literally every single transmission was in a heavily air conditioned place.

.

[Robert DeLong]

I am tu-tu, I have a swimming pool, so it can't happen here. (think frank Zappa if you do not understand my reference. 8>)

After Katrina is what hot & dry, and I was without electricity for a month. Still got an electric bill for 5 times my normal bill though. 8>P

Anyway, the pool saved me from those hot days. 8>)

[nonsporting]

...maybe AZ isn’t such a bad place afterall with temps at or above 100 degrees.

I never thought I'd be looking forward to April's heating up. We usually break 100° by late April here in Phoenix.

It's a dry heat, even during monsoon season.

[steve86]

“Lots of articles and posts on Facebook from friends and relatives in Cainta, Tagiug, Cebu about what is really going on there.”

Could you possibly direct me to one of those threads or whatever they call it, especially concerning Cebu? Thanks.