Coronavirus Live Thread. No. 11. (Weekend)

3/6/2020

[Vermont Lt]

Continuation of Thread

No 10 here:

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-chat/3821921/posts

[blueplum]

Mike Pence, Mar 6:

tests:

“We’ve been able to provide tests to all the state jurisdictions and labs that have requested it and.. all state labs have the test...State labs can actually conduct CV tests themselves. Beyond that, between Mar 2nd and 5th, we’ve distributed more than 900K tests across the country, including 200K that would allow 75,000 individual patients to be tested..By Saturday another 200K tests will be shipped and by the weekend another million tests will be shipped around the country. With the expectation by the end of next week another 4MM tests will be shipped.”

“To meet future demand this week the President brought together the leading commercial labs in America and asked them to in effect partner with the US in developing tests for the American people.

And I’m proud to say that just in the last 24 hours.. two of America’s leading commercial laboratories have announced that tests will be available by Monday of this week. The reason that’s important, the reason that meets future demand is because the enormous capacity of these commercial labs.. are precisely how we will make cv tests avail for your local doctor, available to your pharmacy and broadly available to the American public.”

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0Qyu1XG-wnw

[cgbg]

True.

There are a few problems, however.

The kits have been slow to arrive in most states—very slow.

The outsourced labs are just getting up to speed on how to use them.

Even though the Feds relaxed the standards to allow additional testing, it appears some states (like my CT) are intentionally slow walking their tests to keep the number of confirmed CV cases artificially low.

Here in CT, a doctor worked in two different hospitals, met with patients, touched all sort of surfaces and then later got symptoms and tested positive for the CV.

He probably infected dozens of people who have already infected dozens of more people, including new patients in the hospitals (which should have been closed until they were decontaminated but were kept open instead).

So we probably have several hundred easily identifiable people who should be tested—the employees and patients of the two hospitals for starters.

The state has conducted tests for a grand total of twelve people.

I kid you not.

[Sleeping Freeper]

Take 20 mg of zinc daily and when a cold starts I take Zicam.

[janetjanet998]

Everett Public Schools WA
@EverettSchools
@SnoHD
informed us of student at Woodside Elementary exhibiting symptoms of coronavirus & their parent has tested positive. Student test results pending. Woodside closed March 9-10 for additional disinfecting. Go to http://everettsd.org/COVID-19 for action steps and info.

[Jane Long]

Thanks!

I just got some of the fast melts in, last week. I took one and it was naaaaasty tasting.

May have to look for regular kind...not the fast melts :)

[RummyChick]

Colby Itkowitz
@ColbyItkowitz
·
4h
CPAC chairman Matt Schlapp tells me he interacted with attendee who has tested positive for coronavirus. While the timeline is unknown, Schlapp shook Trump’s hand on stage the last day of the conference.

[cgbg]

It sounds like if the student had not shown symptoms they would never have tested the parent.

Now this probably has caused a new batch of infected students and parents, and all of their contacts for at least several days.

What a mess!

[Jane Long]

A local radio report, here in the Houston metro area, said each kit can test 800.

No idea if that’s correct, but I thoght it was good news.

[blueplum]

ping to #1721

Living in earthquake country we keep a few extra of everything. From lightbulbs to animal feed. And we have our emergency bin of hard supplies since forever, so we didn’t worry about masks or firstaid stuff and such. We recycle those every year during fire season. New stuff goes in the bin, old stuff comes into the house to be used.

[abigkahuna]

c

[mom aka the evil dictator]

Oh I am not the least bit surprised by the rank incompetence of the CDC. I was just commenting that one kit would test more than one person. That caught my attention when I heard the blurb.

The entire upper echelon of the CDC needs to be taken to the woodshed and tossed on their ears. Political hacks, one and all.

[Solson]

If that’s true, yet the total amount of people tested nationally are roughly 3000, I’m not understanding the massive Gap.

[MplsSteve]

Just a temporary snapshot from the Great White North - Minnesota, that is.

The wife and I went to Cub Foods (Minnesota chain of grocery stores) in a SW suburb of Minneapolis. The store seemed stocked well enough. Yep, they had no hand sanitizers and we’re looking a bit picked over for Clorox (although they had some), it looked like business as usual.

I had to shove a guy’s own finger up his nose to prevent him from taking the last box of Chicken In a Biscuit. I don’t think his finger or nose were broken. Just a little blood and oh yeah, I did get the box of Chicken In a Biscuit.

As of right now (and I stress right now), we’re still sitting at only 1 case of confirmed Coronavirus. The patient contracted it on a cruise and is a senior citizen. Will there be more cases? Likely yes but for now, we’re sitting at 1 case only.

From speaking with others, there’s no prepping but it seems as though people are (when they go shopping) storing up on some extra essentials like canned goods.

[blueplum]

Either this thing will burn out in 3-4 months, or it won’t. We’ll know soon enough. Just thru the summer, pick up some extras here and there in case CV comes back in the fall and we have to hunker down for real. Just buy food you like. Pamper food. Comfort food. Beans and rice aren’t likeable. They’re downright depressing and why they’re the last thing to get eaten. otoh, canned peaches and canned cherry pie filling seem to evaporate right into thin air first :)

[Marie-Jacqueline]

Are you saying most toilet paper is made in the USA? Which brands?

[blueplum]

Charmin ! Scott/Kimberly Clark

[blueplum]

and I would guess that Scott probably also makes a lot of the store brands. As well as Kleenex.

[mrsmith]

I believe all of them.
We grow a lot of trees here.

[richardskeet]

"Because of their policy of testing asymptomatic people, South Korea seems to be showing us that the virus is FAR more widespread than previously thought, and when those mild cases are taken into account, it is much less deadly. SK has only 52 "serious cases" out of over 6,500, while Italy has almost 9X that number with significantly fewer confirmed cases. If Italy were to test as SK is doing, they would likely find 5X-10X more cases. I'm sure the epidemiologists have some equation that makes the difference even greater, because serious cases are always found, while mild cases are only discovered if the person is tested.

So, the upside is that mortality is lower, but the down side is that a lot more people are actually infected and have a mild or asymptomatic case. This might indicate the R0 is higher than 2.3. CDC's stated strategy from early on has been to slow down the virus, not stop it. Despite having the highest number of infections per capita of any country, SK seems to be winning that battle, or at least they are not completely overwhelmed. The question is, can WE win that battle? Because even 0.6% sucks if the virus is unchecked. Like SK, we need to aggressively attack every outbreak. That and a little progress on the treatment side would help."

Possibly. Possibly South Korea is ahead of the curve--catching large numbers of people before they get really sick and or die.

We'll know the truth once it is over--not before.

If we could follow the current 7000 cases in South Korea for a month or two, then we'd know for sure.

For example: Focus on the known 7000 SK cases this week. In a week, assume 5% (350) should go into the hospital and .5% die (35). In another week, perhaps another 10%. (700.) and .5% die (35). Maybe week 3, another 5%. (350) and .5% die (35). Then maybe add a few random trickles for the next several weeks.

By the end of the month, we'd have a pretty good idea the correct SK ratios of these 7000: 80% mild; 20% hospitalized; 2% dead.

The problem is with an RO of 2.5, new cases are being discovered every day--further skewing the numbers. By this time next week, there will be 17,500 cases discovered in SK, of those 10,000 will be less than a week old.

It's important to understand Death Rate can only be calculated by those with access to all the data--at least until the WU FLU ends--it can't be calculated by taking the (number of deaths/number of cases) primarily because in a pandemic there's a substantial lag time between time of discovery and moment of death.

[blueplum]

well, we haven’t had a lot of cases....until this week. The nursing home victims were what, cases number 2-10 last week? And, until Pence was assigned, the CDC qualifying was too high for most patients. That’s out now.

The airlifts/Diamond Princess are kind of off to the side because they went straight to military quarantine and/or isolation. But them aside, the US only had about 20 cases this time last week, didn’t we? something low because nobody was showing up sick (yet).