Posted on 02/01/2020 5:10:17 PM PST by BenLurkin
The thing about R0 values is that they are averages. And to explain why that makes a difference, we need to talk about Coronaviruses. Before 2019-nCoV, the most notorious Coronaviruses were MERS and SARS. MERS, or Middle East respiratory syndrome, has had several small outbreaks since it was first discovered in 2012, and while very severe in terms of mortality (the case fatality rate is around 30 to 40 percent), the virus’s R0 is very low.
And then there’s SARS. Because while SARS, or Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome, caused a huge uproar in its heyday of 2002-3, good old fashioned quarantining ultimately went a long way, and the virus is now considered functionally extinct.
While you’d have a better chance of surviving SARS than MERS (the case fatality rate of the latter was somewhere between 9 and 16 percent) it was considerably more adept at spreading person-to-person. At least, kinda. The weird thing about SARS was it displayed a pattern of “super-spreaders” — a select group of individuals, for reasons scientists don’t fully understand, were incredibly contagious.
Most people infected with SARS did not infect anybody; a select bunch infected dozens. At least one super-spreader infected over 100. It’s a weird quirk, but not unheard of. So the original projected R0 for SARS was between 2 and 4, and everybody panicked. One research team that later went back and factored out super-spreaders found that in their absence the R0 was more like 0.4, so containing SARS proved to be a matter of identifying and isolating super-spreaders as quickly as possible, which is a far more manageable task than a scenario where R0 is around 2 and all infected individuals prove more or less equally contagious — the maximum difficulty scenario that Contagion runs with.
(Excerpt) Read more at filmschoolrejects.com ...
She obviously knows a lot more than that dumb Chinese govt with its draconian ongoing containment efforts
Govt is now warning that sewage must be sterilized
Mask. Goggles. Rubber Gloves.
Such a minimal investment covers serious risk.
Its an artificially manipulated coronavirus, not something that naturally evolved. The inserted HIV genes are a giveaway.
If nothing else watch the 4 minutes starting at 37:00
https://youtu.be/UeR9i4BNTTY
It’s just another flu.
80,000 out of 49 million died. For this flu, depending on the mortality rate you chose, let's use the current world wide rate, it would be 1,027,000 dead. If you used the Hubei province rate, it would be 1,588,000 dead. It's not just another flu.
Or not. I can pull numbers out of my Obamahole just like you.
I choose to call it arithmetic.
SARS is gonna kill us all!
We’re all gonna die from Ebola!
Swine flu is gonna kill us!
Bird flu is gonna kill us!
Corona virus is coming for us!
So far most of us have managed to survive.
Ebola is gonna kill us all!! The media LOVES hysteria!! Hurricanes are gonna kill us all EVACUATE, EVACUATE!!!
You’re just one of those people who likes to pretend they know everything.
Anonymous sources are the most reliable sources. </sarcasm>
Have to manufacture a crisis to have one to exploit, don’t ya?
None of the gaslight media’s frenzies have come true. That’s a lot of data right there.
But you just keep hoping there Butch. It’s what you’re good at.
I guess Everybody should Wang Chung Tonight.. for Tomorrow May Never Come.
The thing is look how China has reacted. Have we ever seen them shut down entire cities? Something is up. Not going to freakout though. Common sense, Faith and Prayer.
I like that analogy!
I seem to recall that rattlesnake deaths in the USA are less than lightening deaths.
I did a job in Taiwan. Read up on the snakes - some nasty critters. (”two-step Black Mamba”).
The local engineers thought I was nuts going into the jungle. They wouldn’t go off the road. The local crew seemed to have no worries. I did use a long stick to tap the ground ahead of me. And I had snake proof gators on. (Yes - the local crew gave me a hard time over that!)
Hmm - perhaps another analogy. Prepare the best that you can, take the necessary precautions, but carry on.
When were black mambas introduced to Taiwan?
I was going off my failing memory of 20 years ago. Looking on the net, I’m guessing a Black Mamba didn’t swim from Africa to Taiwan! (BTW - never did see a snake there!)
From the nets:
Banded Krait
This colourful snake from South East Asia has a very potent neurotoxic venom. During the Vietnam War US soldiers referred to this snake as ” two step’” meaning if bitten you would walk two steps before dying. Us soldiers also referred to the Banded Krait as the ” cigarette snake” meaning you would die in the time it took to smoke a cigarette. Both these names are over-exaggerations.
Kraits are nasty, too. When my brother was in India many years ago, his guide prevented him from stepping on one.
Glad you didn’t have to deal with any. Snakes never seem to be around when you’re watching out for them, anyway. I live in Arizona and hike and hunt quite a bit, but I very seldom see rattlesnakes.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.