Researcher Predicts Over 250,000 Chinese Will Have Coronavirus In Ten Days

https://finanz.dk ^ | Jan 24, 2020

[11th_VA]

... Reed wastes no time to get to his terrifying conclusion which is that if no change in control or transmission happens, then further outbreaks will occur in other Chinese cities, “and that infections will continue to be exported to international destinations at an increasing rate.”

As a result, in 10 days time, or by February 4, 2020, Reed‘s model predicts the number of infected people in Wuhan to be greater than 250 thousand (with an prediction interval, 164,602 to 351,396);

[DoughtyOne]

Yes... good one...

[Jane Long]

Thanks for the info.

[DoodleBob]

It’s difficult to know which is spreading faster, the disease or the massive hype.

Oh, cmon...that kind of hype has NEVER happened...

CDC director warns that Congo’s Ebola outbreak may not be containable
washington post ^ | 11/05/2018 | Lena H. Sun
Posted on 11/7/2018, 3:35:55 PM by BenLurkin

Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Director Robert Redfield said Monday that the Ebola outbreak in conflict-ridden Congo has become so serious that international public health experts need to consider the possibility that it cannot be brought under control and instead will become entrenched.

[Cobra64]

I’ll bet there are thousands more stories like yours. We’re glad you’re special. 👍

[Mariner]

The new numbers are 41/1072 as of this evening.

[Bommer]

That bat soup must be hellaishly good.

[Bommer]

Will anyone remember this in ten days.

Nope.....because they will all be dead. San Fran will be an interesting place to keep your eye on.

[Fungi]

The prediction, not quite what I had in mind.

[DoughtyOne]

03.83%

[Right_Wing_Madman]

San Fran will be an interesting place to keep your eye on.

Now might be good time to prohibit all air travel between the United States and China.

[DoughtyOne]

There you go...

Look, it’s like the doomsayers. They make 1000 predictions, one hits, and they live happily every after being called Jean Dixon’s long lot cousin.

[D Rider]

Generally true. If it takes 14 days incubation... it’s the front end of overlapping curves. Once everyone in the contact population gets it, the mortality rate will increase until it’s over. The final mortality rate tends to be higher, unless a cure is introduced.

[D Rider]

Should have said treatment is introduced.

[SheepWhisperer]

“A higher transmission rate means a lower fatality rate.”

Please, if you have a basis for that assertion, share it.

+1
Please rely with credible substantiation for your claim.
Or is this simply your opinion?

[SheepWhisperer]

Isn’t Ebola transmitted by body fluids only?
If so, far different than airborne...like aircraft fuselage recirculation system

[chickenlips]

This could prove why outsourcing a majority of the world’s generic medicines to India and China was a bad idea.

[Clutch Martin]

I Wonder, how many Chinese takeout restaurants will suffer because people will refuse to go there and eat or to take out?

There’s a lot of different financial problems associated with this virus and the ramifications thereof.

[mrsmith]

Fatality rate = Dead from virus/ not dead from virus.

When you increase the trsnsmission rate you increase the ‘not dead from virus’ number.

It’s very simple math. I don’t understand any claimed confusion.

[a fool in paradise]

“That’s xenophobic!”

[null and void]

Ten days will be February 3rd, 2020.

It's already tomorrow in China.