Prediction 2020

various | January 2nd, 2020 | various

[SunkenCiv]

1. The wall will be begun and nearly completed by the end of 2020.
2. Legal challenges to the construction of the wall will fail.
3. President Trump's popularity will grow the more the wall is completed.
4. Impeachment will either never make it to the Senate due to Pelousy's fascistic tactics, or it will arrive and be a) shredded item by item or b) called up for a vote and rejected on a bipartisan basis.
5. President Trump's popularity will grow the longer the hoaxpeachment totters on.
6. In Venezuela, there will be a civil war between factions of the military, one of which will initially support Maduro, then remove his ass. Iran and Russia will continue to be involved in Venezuelan affairs until told to get out by President Trump.
7. The Philippines's president Duterte will make an official visit to the US, for a meeting with President Trump.
8. A half dozen or more nations will announce the move of their embassies in Israel to Jerusalem.
9. The witch hunt against Israeli PM Netanyahu will end well for him, leaving him in better political shape than before. The 2020 election will go well for him.
10. The Three Amigos (Russia, Iran, and Turkey) will continue to operate as a sort of triumvirat regarding Syria and to some degree Iraq. Three and a Half Amigos will continue to be used to refer to (in order) Putin, the Shiite-head, Erdogan, and the dwarf Assad.
11. The BJP in India won reelection in 2019, and will begin to experience economic growth never before seen there.
12. Brexit will finally take place, and MPs will jump parties, mostly from Labour to LD or SNP.
13. Discovery of the wreckage of MH370 will be announced three or four more times during 2020.
14. SpaceX will launch humans into space for the first time -- aboard a Falcon 9 -- and dock with the ISS, FINALLY. The Starship phase III is currently in development, but Starship (phase whatever) won't reach orbit until 2021 at the earliest.
15. Bernie Sanders will die before the convention; Biden will carry away a big lead in so-called Super Tuesday; Brainless Joe will eschew Psychojawea and pick Butthurt for his running mate.
16. President Trump will be reelected by a large margin in 2020, and any Pubbie not wanting to ride his coattails will pay the price at the ballot box.
17. The price of crude will spike early in 2020 and go into decline in the early summer.
18. Boeing will pull the plug on the 737Max; General Electric has picked up business for its largest airline engine, with sales to Airbus making up for lost 737 business. Earnings may double to a mere 2 cents a share, but the share price will rise, becoming one of the stars of 2020.
19. General Motors, Ford, and Fiat-Chrysler (with or without Peugeot) will remain flat, although I suspect there's money to be made by moving in and out of Ford, siphoning off a buck a share each time.
20. Despite further decreases in the cost of gasoline/crude oil, electric vehicles will soon become much more commonly seen throughout most of the US. Tesla will be have 10 percent of US auto sales by 2024. Hidebound conspiracy nuts hardest hit!
21. Apple, Inc. will introduce its first A-chip based MacOS desktop product (no, really, this time for sure) and an updated iPhone SE (which may be called the iPhone 9; it'll be a good upgrade path for users of the iPhone 6 models and the 7 models), both of which will sell well; Apple will up the screen refresh rate across its iPhone line, while not giving up battery life. There has been no update for the excellent iMac Pro since 2017, expect some kind of refresh to that line in the autumn or early winter.
22. 2020 will see a shakeout of the streaming business as everyone burns out on the crap content and trying to watch "their shows" on their stupid small phone screens. The falloff in bandwidth use will come in handy for those trying to roll out 5G.
23. Twitter's board will finally rid itself of Twitter's founder, in an attempt to repair its well-deserved s****y reputation. His move to Africa probably means he'll be taken out by a hired hit team from one of the jihadist groups there.
24. Facebook will experience serious competition for the first time; in the EU, it will be investigated and tried for monopolistic practices and fake "fake news" charges.
25. Laz will hit it.
26. President Trump's Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) -- Pelosi called it a "scam" -- will expire December 31, 2025, IOW, during the first term of the next President.
27. Bottled water and various other non-carbonated beverages have (mostly) not had bottle/can deposits; the Demagogic Party will start a well-orchestrated campaign (with help from their media shills) to put deposts on all beverage containers.
28. Slam dunk! I repeat, absolutely NOTHING of significance will be found by the Oak Island treasure hunters.
29. RBG will not remain on the SCOTUS by the end of 2020.
30. The "leadership" in the Demagogic Party is in a vice between the leftist insurgents supported by Soros, and their own inability to get anything done.
31. Fragmentation of the Demagogic Party will continue along racial and gender lines.

    Progressive journalist: 'Sanders's presidency is a threat of an entirely new party' [The Hill's Tess Bonn speaks of / shills for Ryan Grim]

32. At this point, Perdogg would be bringing up professional and college sports predictions, but I couldn't possibly give less of a **** than I do. I don't think we'll see the Patriots in the Super Bowl this year.

[SunkenCiv]

They have a lot invested, but repairing the reputation of this plane is a lost cause. Had they gone scorched Earth and fired everyone involved, the entire management of the company would have been gone -- the guy recently brought in has eliminated a couple of board heavies (Muilenberg or whatever, and before that, he and Muilie took the CFO aside and fired him) and is known for straightening out screwed up corps, but not for running them long term.

Had they tried something more proactive, such as fixing the problem before the second crash, likely that none of this would have happened. If they'd pulled the entire product after the second crash, fixed the avionics Q&D, and made sure the plane kept flying as a freighter for the time being, to establish a track record, that probably would have worked. Now they're screwed, and have screwed themselves on the 737Max. Edsel.

[SunkenCiv]

Regarding #20 above -- In the last week or so, a so-called analyst gave a mixed call on Tesla; the firm he's with was quasi-bullish, but maintains a target price for the stock that's over $100 lower than the stock currently is. The analyst projected that Tesla's production would come in thousands of units below the company's target. Instead, the 2019 production has beaten the company's target by 1000s.

[SunkenCiv]

Regarding #21 -- Samsung's 5G phone sales have exceeded the company's expectations. I suspect that's the reason for the slight pullback this morning in Apple stock.

[SunkenCiv]

Regarding #22 -- Barron's has an article out this morning about the hazards of the streaming vid biz, very interesting. Could also be part of the Apple decline, but the ecosystem gives TV+ an edge. The competition among the otherwise undifferentiated services will be a problem during this phase of the shakeout.

[SunkenCiv]

18. Boeing will pull the plug on the 737Max...

    new related topic: Boeing Uncovers Another Potential Design Flaw With the 737 Max Jets

[SunkenCiv]

Due to the time involved manually typing, I missed a little at the pinnacle today, but sold my small stake in TSLA, which has been up more than $40 today, I think it was up about $39 when my shares sold. I plan to pluck some more, perhaps as early as 3:59 PM. Oppenheimer investment bank had raised target from $385 (which is much lower than current) to $612, while topless secretaries go-go danced on the boardroom table, and Springsteen's "Born to Run" blared from the entire office. As I'd mentioned somewhere, recently, I don't like having a lot of TSLA, just a taste, because I've seen it drop $40 in one day as well.

20. Despite further decreases in the cost of gasoline/crude oil, electric vehicles will soon become much more commonly seen throughout most of the US. Tesla will be have 10 percent of US auto sales by 2024. Hidebound conspiracy nuts hardest hit!

[SunkenCiv]

This showed up on the broker website, no URL, can't turn it up with some basic searches.

Boeing CEO Immediately Under Fire -- Market Talk

Today 2:37 PM ET (Dow Jones)

14:37 ET - New Boeing CEO David Calhoun pledged in a staff memo to incorporate "outside-in perspective on what we do and how we do it", so little surprise that he's been taken at his word. A letter signed by three senators already heading his way, calling for the cancellation of the $7M bonus tied to him successfully returning the 737 MAX to service. "This payment represents a clear financial incentive for Mr. Calhoun to pressure regulators into ungrounding the 737 MAX, as well as rush the investigations and reforms needed to guarantee public safety," write Sens. Edward Markey, Richard Blumenthal and Tammy Baldwin. (doug.cameron@wsj.com; @dougcameron)

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

January 13, 2020 14:37 ET (19:37 GMT)

Chairman David Calhoun will become the manufacturer’s new CEO on Jan. 13... Board member Lawrence Kellner will become Boeing’s non-executive chairman of the board, effective immediately.

Boeing fires CEO Dennis Muilenburg, as the company struggles with 737 Max crisis

[SunkenCiv]

Obviously the long-overdue obliteration of the Iranian master terrorist was a black swan event. Assad suddenly has some cards to play. We'll see whether he survives 2020, with the Hizzies, the IRGC, and various other Iran-backed (but supposedly Iran-opposed) terrorist groups gunning for him.

10. The Three Amigos (Russia, Iran, and Turkey) will continue to operate as a sort of triumvirat regarding Syria and to some degree Iraq. Three and a Half Amigos will continue to be used to refer to (in order) Putin, the Shiite-head, Erdogan, and the dwarf Assad.

[SunkenCiv]

21. Apple, Inc. will introduce its first A-chip based MacOS desktop product (no, really, this time for sure) and an updated iPhone SE (which may be called the iPhone 9; it'll be a good upgrade path for users of the iPhone 6 models and the 7 models), both of which will sell well; Apple will up the screen refresh rate across its iPhone line, while not giving up battery life. There has been no update for the excellent iMac Pro since 2017, expect some kind of refresh to that line in the autumn or early winter.

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The iPad Pro will be getting a 5G modem in the future. According to one analyst, the iPhone 12 Pro series may be delayed until 2021, but will be getting 6GB of RAM. And Apple is preparing to launch a new MacBook, with 'Pro Mode' launching for some existing computers. This video is sponsored by Skillshare. | iPhone 12 Pro Possibly Delayed, 5G iPad Pro Coming & Pro Mode! | iupdate | January 15, 2020

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AMD CEO, Dr. Lisa Su, confirmed the new Zen 3 CPU architecture was on track for a 2020 launch back at CES, and the Linux code base is now obviously being prepared. The new Linux patch details support for Family 19h of AMD's processor silicon, which is widely assumed to be a reference to the Zen 3 family... As such this is definitely not the Linux code base getting prepped for the Ryzen 4000 APUs that have been launched at CES, but the Ryzen 4000 CPUs being launched, likely around Computex... The Linux patch was highlighted by serial Twitter leaker, Komachi (via TechSpot), and specifies three different Family 17h devices... AMD is changing the naming scheme for its new Zen 3 architecture, reinforcing the suggestion that the new processor architecture is far more than just a speedier, more efficient, 7nm+ respin of either the Zen or Zen 2 CPU design. All of the previous Zen processors have been lumped under the Family 17h moniker, both without and within the Linux kernel, which makes the Zen 3 chips appearing under the 19h nomenclature indicative of a brand new design.

Niels Broekhuijsen for Tom's Hardware

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The Walmart Motile Ryzen 5 (and Windows) "Performance" Laptop is a ridiculously good deal...most of the time. | Walmart's New Laptop is an INSANE Deal | Austin Evans | January 15, 2020

[SunkenCiv]

The rest of the week, for TSLA? Reminded me of that Gordo Cooper soliloquy by Dennis Quaid near the end of "The Right Stuff" -- a hurtlin' piece of machinery. I think it's still foolish to not put a toe in, but just a toe, and if it burns off some capital, put in a couple more toes, so the average toe length is shorter when it goes up again.

Telsa isn't limited by falling sales, which is mythical -- it is constrained by its manufacturing capacity. The Tesla facility in Sparks NV (cute) produces nearly half the world's batteries, and when completed, may wind up being the largest building footprint in the world (5.8 million sq ft).

So-called Business Insider has a recent op-ed, "Elon Musk's plan to build a new Tesla factory in Germany makes no sense. Here's why." It s/b "Matthew DeBord's latest Tesla op-ed makes no sense."

[SunkenCiv]

http://www.google.com/search?q=European+union+automobile+emission+requirements