Posted on 12/16/2019 11:17:56 AM PST by SeekAndFind
Is the stock market on the brink of breaking into an unmitigated run-up to fresh records?
That is the question that a number of a market strategists are exploring as the Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA, the S&P 500 SPX, and the Nasdaq Composite COMP, indexes mount their latest in an assault to new all-time closing highs, powered by hope that the U.S. and China can forge a preliminary trade accord to resolve a prolonged battle over import duties. A number of other geopolitical headwinds, at least momentarily, have died down, including concerns about market-roiling effects from uncertainty due to Britain’s Byzantine pathway toward an exit from the European Union.
Analysts at Bank of America Merrill Lynch, led by strategists Michael Hartnett, described the market as “primed for Q1 2020 risk asset melt-up,” with the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank still providing ample support to portions of the market and economy that have shown some signs of softness.
UBS Global Wealth Management Chief Investment Officer Mark Haefele said that the partial Sino-American trade resolution contributes mightily to the bullish thesis that a number of strategists have adopted.
“This could unlock further upside for equity markets, driven by an improvement in business confidence and a recovery in investment,” Haefele wrote.
It is important to note that the a so-called melt-up is considered by market pundits as the end phase of an asset bubble and is usually followed by a significant downturn in stock values. Strategists have predicted meltups a number of times over the past 18 months, with concerns growing about U.S. economic growth in its record-setting 11th year of expansion, supporting fears that an economic and stock-market pullback are inevitable.
(Excerpt) Read more at marketwatch.com ...
What happened to the big recession that the leading economic indicators were signaling back in October? The stories were all over the MSM.
RE: What happened to the big recession that the leading economic indicators were signaling back in October? The stories were all over the MSM.
We will be hearing talks of recession all over again the closer we get to November 2020.
“Strategists have predicted meltups a number of times over the past 18 months”
Unfortunately (for them), it’s hard to convince people the economy is crashing when they’re finally employed plus making more than they ever have. AND inflation is staying low, so those high wages actually buy more.
Because they have no idea of any facts so they scare people to make commissions. It’s easier that actually providing facts and being accountable. Like wizards and Hillary Clinton. I think she transferred herself into a toad.
If I had crystal ball, I’d be on a yacht in the Mediterranean, but there’s been such a run-up this year that some kind of >10% correction in the very near future seems almost inevitable. Let’s just hope it’s not too severe and doesn’t hit at the worst possible time (Sept-Oct 2020).
I think you may be right. I was just t watching Christopher Walken in Puss-in-Boots talking the ogre into changing himself into a mouse, then he ate him! Maybe DT talked PIAPS into changing herself into a toad and he’s going to send the White House cat over.
I have a democrat colleague at work who put all of his money in cash right after the election because he thought President Trump would crash the economy.
RE: Unfortunately (for them), it’s hard to convince people the economy is crashing when they’re finally employed plus making more than they ever have
Well, what about talking about our HUGE national debt, unrestrained government spending, pension crisis in many of our states, and the imminent bankruptcy of Medicare and Medicaid?
I thought it was a big deal when it hit 10,000, I think in 1991 +-
Yeah but 18 sucked. 19 is partly a correction for 18.
RE: I have a democrat colleague at work who put all of his money in cash right after the election because he thought President Trump would crash the economy.
Well, at least he’s still making 1% in the bank :)
But then inflation has eaten away at this savings.
Oh yeah, I forgot that’s all bad when an R does it. Remember when Ebola was running against Bush deficits? (and rightly except for the fact he was going to do it ten times worse)
Plus, people care about their own income more than that stuff, or they wouldn’t vote for the people they do.
I put half my $$ in the S&P 500 and the other half in bonds/treasury bills-auto pilot. How can one go wrong?
This to me sounds like a contra indicator. If you’re at a peak, then there has to be some reason to justify further gains.
Let me ask the shoeshine guy by the subway exit...
Lol! That’s funny right there!
I learned years ago. Go with your own instincts when buying stocks. These “experts” are making money on your investments usually that doesn’t mean it’s in your favor
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