Vanity: Trump and Electoral Math

Me, with assist from 270 to Win ^ | 9/9 | Yours Truly

[TangledUpInBlue]

Ok all, let me know what you think....

[TakebackGOP]

Just campaign where he did last time. Don’t try to win the states he lost last time.

[Spruce]

I stand by it. Minnesota will turn red. The longer the economy keeps chugging along at its current pace, the more sure I am.

Minnesota wasn’t close in 2016 because the “I’m with her” crowd stayed home. It’s because the voters that did not like either of them stayed home or voted for Giant Meteor 2016. Those people will vote for the current economy. And it will not be even close.

[j.havenfarm]

I agree with Klingon. I see any breakthroughs with China or the Norks as being critical. I agree with the conventional wisdom China would like to wait it out, but I don’t think they can hold out another 14 months. North Korea is waiting a signal from China for permission to make a deal. If the simpletons purportedly administering justice vis a vis the attempt to overthrow our government, I think that could be huge

[DoodleDawg]

I stand by it. Minnesota will turn red. The longer the economy keeps chugging along at its current pace, the more sure I am.

Duly noted.

Minnesota wasn’t close in 2016 because the “I’m with her” crowd stayed home.

Yeah, actually it was. In 2016 Trump got 1.323 million votes, a little higher than the 1.320 million votes Romney got in 2012. Clinton got 1.368 million votes, considerably less than the 1.546 million votes Obama got in 2012. Minnesota was close because people stayed home. There is no guarantee they will do the same in 2020.

[Spruce]

We agree. Those ~200k votes that stayed home will not stay home this time.

I simply believe the majority of them will vote for Trump.

[LS]

In August 2015 I posted on Twitter that Trump would win the general with “between 300 and 320 electoral votes”. The final was 306.

The only state I didn’t get was WI, but I had him getting NH.

In 2020, he’ll hold every state he won in 2016, and add NH and MN (as of now) for 320 EVs.

There is a good chance he can carry NV and ME. I think around 340 is the absolute max, though VA is closer that people think. (About 220k votes in 2016, meaning Trump has to flip 110k. However, I think a substantial % of blacks will stay home and an additional 2-3% will vote Trump in 2020, making VA extremely tight).

[DoodleDawg]

I simply believe the majority of them will vote for Trump.

We will have to agree to disagree.

[Spruce]

Why can’t you just agree to agree with me?? What’s going on here? Wait. I know what this is. Hate speech! Help!!!

[DoodleDawg]

Why can’t you just agree to agree with me??

Because I believe you're wrong. Nothing personal.

What’s going on here? Wait. I know what this is. Hate speech! Help!!!

Another Minnesotan looking for a safe space?

[gundog]

Prosecutions, or lack thereof.

[Pollster1]

The people in states that are reliably blue will vote for a dead squirrel before Trump so voting for Warren or Bernie will be easy for them.

I don't know. The dead squirrel would be far better than Warren or Bernie.

[SunkenCiv]

Thanks TangledUpInBlue. I'm not sure there will be much deviation from the 2016 results, other than perhaps flipping Nevada and NM. Overall the Demagogic Party has been having big problems raising cash, but in part that may be because the big donors' bucks have been flowing to individual campaigns and proxy orgs like what Soros supports.

Small donations are in Trump's favor (if memory serves) including support from women. The population I serve where I work -- if such anecdotal data can be useful -- shows major erosion even among blacks of voting age, and the left hasn't been able to manufacture enough flamers to make up that gap. Whatever the numbers are right now are going to worsen for the Democretins in their "solid" demos, and this is irrespective of whom they nominate.

But they will nominate Biden if he's still alive by the convention time, and because they jump where the money is, they'll have the flamer Buttplug as their VP nominee.

I'm adding Larry to the ping for this reply to get a better opinion than mine.

2016 Presidential Election Live Results

[ealgeone]

IF Roman Catholics turn out for Trump like they did last go round, Trump should win.

[SunkenCiv]

Oh, you're here already. Ignore my ping. Good point on ME, and I think I saw your topic on VA the other day. We agree about NV. MN is tossup, imho, and hilarious if NH goes R, even moreso if Bernie is the nominee, and in that case, even more hilarious if VT goes R as well.

[SunkenCiv]

LOL!

[GOPJ]

President Trump remains the only thing keeping the USA from becoming the USSA.

Our 'intelligence' thugs are working with the press against a sitting President... I hope we're ONLY as horrible as the USSR. We could become like North Korea...

I wish there was a peaceful way to divide the country. Liberals can live in a commie hellhole with Bernie and Warren as joint tormentors - whatever. They can have what they want - as long as we don't have to be part of their country.

[WASCWatch]

All the Evangelical Christians who stayed home in 2016 because they weren’t convinced Trump really supported Christian values and Conservative judicial appointments; well, they are convinced now. They will show up in record numbers.

I predict the GOP will take back the House, and maybe increase their majority in the Senate.

With the Democrat candidates telling the nation that they will repeal tax cuts, green energy plans, and take away their private health plans, they don’t have a chance.

Trump did not have much of a social media presence in 2016. His campaign will have a great social media platform independent of Google and FaceBook up and running in the next month or two. The millions of people who have registered for his rallies had to include their contact data in their application. That will be a huge advantage for the Trump campaign, and the rest of the GOP.

The Democrat debates are nothing but gold mines for GOP ads across the nation; for the President, the House, and the Senate. Going to be a landslide.

[Chode]

gonna be hard to beat the massive voter fraud that will occur...

[SunkenCiv]

Trump’s New Math: Inside the Plan to Flip Blue States in 2020
Time | September 9, 2019 | Brian Bennett
Posted on 09/09/2019 6:40:49 PM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/gop/3777633/posts

[PhilCollins]

Why do you think that Trump might win NV? I lived in Las Vegas. In 2018, NV elected a new U.S. senator, a Democrat, and they elected a new governor, a Democrat. Three of their four congressmen are Democrats. Both houses of their legislature are controlled by Democrats.