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What Happened to ALL the Dorian Computer Models Hitting Florida?
Vanity | 9/1/2019 | Self

Posted on 09/01/2019 2:07:56 AM PDT by CptnObvious

What Happened to ALL the Dorian Computer Models Hitting Florida?

Was it me, or were ALL the computer models hitting Florida for several days. And I don't remember even one predicting it going to the east of Florida and up beside the US East Coast.

Now, all but one predict it NOT hitting Florida, the one predicting a loop into Florida and back then zipping up the coast with all the other models.

My question is, What Happened to change all the Computer Models, in one day so drastically. How did all the computer models get changed like this so fast?

Were we getting Played?


TOPICS: Miscellaneous
KEYWORDS: dorian
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To: Labyrinthos

Exactly. We’re doomed. In 11.4 years, the earth’s coasts will be under water and arable land burnt to a crisp. AOC assured us.


81 posted on 09/01/2019 5:45:12 AM PDT by BradyLS (DO NOT FEED THE BEARS!)
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To: CptnObvious

It’s a conspiracy, Capt.

A little more than 100 years ago, ‘tis stuff would show up with a day’s warning. A chance of 100 miles in the projection is pretty good!


82 posted on 09/01/2019 5:47:27 AM PDT by Vermont Lt
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To: CptnObvious

Good grief, weather is dynamic. As the high pressure off the Atlantic coast area dynamically moves north and west, the hurricane dynamically alters course accordingly. This kind of a question is right up there with “why do clouds move in the sky?” It’s a low IQ thing.


83 posted on 09/01/2019 5:48:16 AM PDT by ThePatriotsFlag (We are getting even more than we voted for.)
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To: pepsionice

What a tragedy. People got warning and moved out of the way.

The people complaining about this should be ashamed of themselves. Would you prefer NO warning?

Go back to complaining about the kids walking on your lawn.


84 posted on 09/01/2019 5:49:18 AM PDT by Vermont Lt
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To: ArcadeQuarters

“But it’s from a powerful computer so people trust it.”
A picture of IBM PC Jr would be appropriate at this point. I don’t know how to do that.


85 posted on 09/01/2019 5:51:13 AM PDT by duckman ( Not tired of winning!)
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To: CptnObvious
I don't think we are getting played. The meteorologists just don't know. And those computer models are basically computer simulations of what is likely to happen based on what has happened in the past under similar meteorological conditions.

Fact is, we really don't know much about predicting the weather. What we have gotten very good at is to see what might be coming based on satellite imagery. That's why we now talk about hurricanes two weeks before they even pose a threat where just 100 years ago, they'd take us totally by surprise.

Remember, many of these are the same "experts" that predict global warming. They have trouble enough predicting what will happen 72 hours ahead of time. They have near zero ability to predict long term weather and thus this this whole "global warming" crisis is a big fraud being perpetrated upon us for political reasons. (So we can elect a bunch of socialists to swoop in and save us by taking away our automobiles and making peasants of us).

This is why the Farmer's Almanac appears to be so right much of the time in predicting long term weather with their simple and folksy approach. Typical Farmer's Almanac forecast for September (Upper New England, Upstate NY):

Sep 1-6 Showers, Warm
Sep 7-12 A few showers, cool
Sep 13-18 Rainy, then sunny, cold
Sep 19-22 Showers, mild
Sep 23-27 Rainy periods, cool
Sep 28-30 Sunny, warm

Bet this ends up being 75% accurate.

It's not so much that the Farmer's Almanac is right - it's that a common sense observational approach to the weather often beats the "experts" with their fancy computer models.

86 posted on 09/01/2019 5:52:14 AM PDT by SamAdams76
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To: Sirius Lee

I sent out thoughts and prayers too. They do work.


87 posted on 09/01/2019 5:53:34 AM PDT by cnsmom (G)
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To: Paradox

Thanks. I like your clear, precise answer.


88 posted on 09/01/2019 5:53:37 AM PDT by lastchance (Credo.)
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To: Sirius Lee

Keep praying everyone Please.


89 posted on 09/01/2019 5:55:05 AM PDT by cnsmom (G)
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To: CptnObvious

Actually the potential to hit fl is still strong regardless of what models say. I would not want to be in vero for instance and take a direct hit from a 4/5 storm. The models and NHC have been way off on timing of storm but good on its path. The “news” media have picked up a what the NHC says is a low confidence report after 48 hrs as if the storm will magically go NE. So my advice to anyone who lives in FL on east coast is be alert to any change to the forecast


90 posted on 09/01/2019 5:55:28 AM PDT by Mouton (The media is the enemy of the people.)
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To: CptnObvious

Quit complaining; The hurricane predictions are as completely accurate as their Global Warming models.


91 posted on 09/01/2019 5:56:13 AM PDT by LegendHasIt
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To: CptnObvious

Those models were generated by Home Depot


92 posted on 09/01/2019 5:56:32 AM PDT by freedomjusticeruleoflaw (Strange that a man with his wealth would have to resort to prostitution.)
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To: super7man
Dorian was headed directly for DJT's house (which delighted many) but Mother Nature didn't want to tangle with The Donald knowing it would lose., which begs the question why Dorian instead of Donald ?

We've never had a hurricane named Donald, just a TS in '11. Perhaps one hurricane named Donald in the White House is enough.

93 posted on 09/01/2019 5:57:03 AM PDT by chiller (As Davey Crockett once said: Be sure you're right. Then go ahead. I'm goin' ahead.)
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To: SkyPilot

TABD was a mis-spelling.

OBAMA is the real name—heading for his house. ;-)


94 posted on 09/01/2019 5:57:14 AM PDT by cgbg (Democracy dies in darkness when Bezos bans books.)
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To: CptnObvious

Maybe a little. The National Weather Service is a bureaucracy within another bureaucracy, The Dept. of Commerce. As such, it needs to justify its existence. Invoking fear is its prime tactic to justify that existence. Also, as such, it’s inept. The Weather Channel is just another version of CNN. Yes, the personalities may be meteorologist s but , in practice, they are just teleprompter readers regurgitating whatever the NWS feeds them.


95 posted on 09/01/2019 5:57:47 AM PDT by Texas Eagle (If it wasn't for double-standards, Liberals would have no standards at all -- Texas Eagle)
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To: CptnObvious
Were we getting Played?

Played? To what end?

96 posted on 09/01/2019 5:57:49 AM PDT by Windflier (Torches and pitchforks ripen on the vine. Left too long, they become black rifles.)
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To: CptnObvious

The hurricane has slowed down making it more susceptible to the Gulf Stream current. Therefore, the path will be more northerly.


97 posted on 09/01/2019 5:58:01 AM PDT by reg45 (Barack 0bama: Gone but not forgiven.)
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To: CptnObvious
For Atlantic hurricanes, models are quite inaccurate 5 days out due to all the variables affecting weather and what is known as "steering currents". The models do tend to be fairly accurate within 24 hours of landfall.

In general, strong steering currents tend to keep Atlantic hurricanes out over water, away from major land masses and moving northward into the cold waters of the North Atlantic where they die.

October hurricanes tend to be different in that they generally form more in the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico where steering currents generally move them north into major landmasses.

A hurricane is a planetary South->North heat transfer mechanism.

98 posted on 09/01/2019 5:59:48 AM PDT by fso301
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The libs were cheering for it to hit Florida because of Mara Lago. They wanted to hurt Trump. So Somebody up there decided to show them what He thought of that!


99 posted on 09/01/2019 6:00:13 AM PDT by DGravalloni
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To: napscoordinator

“Climate science” has gotten so skewed by lefty politics that the difficult challenges of long term climate prediction have been transformed into leftist monkeys pounding on their keyboards producing random garbage.


100 posted on 09/01/2019 6:01:29 AM PDT by cgbg (Democracy dies in darkness when Bezos bans books.)
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