Posted on 09/01/2019 2:07:56 AM PDT by CptnObvious
What Happened to ALL the Dorian Computer Models Hitting Florida?
Was it me, or were ALL the computer models hitting Florida for several days. And I don't remember even one predicting it going to the east of Florida and up beside the US East Coast.
Now, all but one predict it NOT hitting Florida, the one predicting a loop into Florida and back then zipping up the coast with all the other models.
My question is, What Happened to change all the Computer Models, in one day so drastically. How did all the computer models get changed like this so fast?
Were we getting Played?
Exactly. We’re doomed. In 11.4 years, the earth’s coasts will be under water and arable land burnt to a crisp. AOC assured us.
It’s a conspiracy, Capt.
A little more than 100 years ago, ‘tis stuff would show up with a day’s warning. A chance of 100 miles in the projection is pretty good!
Good grief, weather is dynamic. As the high pressure off the Atlantic coast area dynamically moves north and west, the hurricane dynamically alters course accordingly. This kind of a question is right up there with “why do clouds move in the sky?” It’s a low IQ thing.
What a tragedy. People got warning and moved out of the way.
The people complaining about this should be ashamed of themselves. Would you prefer NO warning?
Go back to complaining about the kids walking on your lawn.
“But it’s from a powerful computer so people trust it.”
A picture of IBM PC Jr would be appropriate at this point. I don’t know how to do that.
Fact is, we really don't know much about predicting the weather. What we have gotten very good at is to see what might be coming based on satellite imagery. That's why we now talk about hurricanes two weeks before they even pose a threat where just 100 years ago, they'd take us totally by surprise.
Remember, many of these are the same "experts" that predict global warming. They have trouble enough predicting what will happen 72 hours ahead of time. They have near zero ability to predict long term weather and thus this this whole "global warming" crisis is a big fraud being perpetrated upon us for political reasons. (So we can elect a bunch of socialists to swoop in and save us by taking away our automobiles and making peasants of us).
This is why the Farmer's Almanac appears to be so right much of the time in predicting long term weather with their simple and folksy approach. Typical Farmer's Almanac forecast for September (Upper New England, Upstate NY):
Sep 1-6 Showers, Warm
Sep 7-12 A few showers, cool
Sep 13-18 Rainy, then sunny, cold
Sep 19-22 Showers, mild
Sep 23-27 Rainy periods, cool
Sep 28-30 Sunny, warm
Bet this ends up being 75% accurate.
It's not so much that the Farmer's Almanac is right - it's that a common sense observational approach to the weather often beats the "experts" with their fancy computer models.
I sent out thoughts and prayers too. They do work.
Thanks. I like your clear, precise answer.
Keep praying everyone Please.
Actually the potential to hit fl is still strong regardless of what models say. I would not want to be in vero for instance and take a direct hit from a 4/5 storm. The models and NHC have been way off on timing of storm but good on its path. The “news” media have picked up a what the NHC says is a low confidence report after 48 hrs as if the storm will magically go NE. So my advice to anyone who lives in FL on east coast is be alert to any change to the forecast
Quit complaining; The hurricane predictions are as completely accurate as their Global Warming models.
Those models were generated by Home Depot
We've never had a hurricane named Donald, just a TS in '11. Perhaps one hurricane named Donald in the White House is enough.
TABD was a mis-spelling.
OBAMA is the real name—heading for his house. ;-)
Maybe a little. The National Weather Service is a bureaucracy within another bureaucracy, The Dept. of Commerce. As such, it needs to justify its existence. Invoking fear is its prime tactic to justify that existence. Also, as such, it’s inept. The Weather Channel is just another version of CNN. Yes, the personalities may be meteorologist s but , in practice, they are just teleprompter readers regurgitating whatever the NWS feeds them.
Played? To what end?
The hurricane has slowed down making it more susceptible to the Gulf Stream current. Therefore, the path will be more northerly.
In general, strong steering currents tend to keep Atlantic hurricanes out over water, away from major land masses and moving northward into the cold waters of the North Atlantic where they die.
October hurricanes tend to be different in that they generally form more in the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico where steering currents generally move them north into major landmasses.
A hurricane is a planetary South->North heat transfer mechanism.
The libs were cheering for it to hit Florida because of Mara Lago. They wanted to hurt Trump. So Somebody up there decided to show them what He thought of that!
“Climate science” has gotten so skewed by lefty politics that the difficult challenges of long term climate prediction have been transformed into leftist monkeys pounding on their keyboards producing random garbage.
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