Posted on 09/01/2019 2:07:56 AM PDT by CptnObvious
What Happened to ALL the Dorian Computer Models Hitting Florida?
Was it me, or were ALL the computer models hitting Florida for several days. And I don't remember even one predicting it going to the east of Florida and up beside the US East Coast.
Now, all but one predict it NOT hitting Florida, the one predicting a loop into Florida and back then zipping up the coast with all the other models.
My question is, What Happened to change all the Computer Models, in one day so drastically. How did all the computer models get changed like this so fast?
Were we getting Played?
The “models” can only calculate results based on the information that is available to them at the instant that they run. Some people foolishly give the models far too much credibility than they deserve.
When carried into the future, a small change in input parameters results in a big change in the outcome. In other words, the models are useless for predicting what will happen.
They are useless. The real problem is idiot people who put their faith in the models because “it’s on the computer and can’t be wrong. “
Now Predicted to be Cat 5
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wS-eWDX57Kg
I preferred the Sweating Bullets title that was shown on CBS Crimetime After Primetime.
You don’t want government causing paranoia over cat 1 and cat 2 storms. Getting people to leave for Cat 4 and 5 storms, even if they don’t ultimately strike, is definitely not paranoia. People should consider themselves very lucky if this one misses them and grateful for the practice evacuation. On my side even a cat 2 that is mostly a rain event would be a mess, our roads are already approaching impassible in some places due to rainwater saturation.
They wanted us to forget the half-dozen plus things that ‘went wrong’ regarding Epstein. Have to admit, it worked.
Also note that the latest mass shooting occurred on the EXACT DAY that Florida was spared the hurricane. Coincidence? You decide.
Exactly
They should use the climate models because their more accurate...…...
Cat 5 160 mph winds now... still going west. Sometimes wthe big ones are stubborn about turning. Wonder when it will do an eyewall replacement?
I will bet the ranch that no computer model has yet been devised that would have produced the path that Hurricane Betsy took. Go look for yourself and discover what I am saying. The computer models are estimates—nothing more. They are a useful tool and not an absolute.
The President got concerned after the Canadian POS hoped it would hit Mar-A-Largo.
TRUMP! TRUMP! TRUMP! TRUMP!
But predicting climate change 11.4 years out is a no brainer. /s
Now I’m in the cone! I don’t wanna be in the cone! I got two major projects in various states of unfinishedness, I don’t need to be in the cone right now! MOMMY!!!!
Trump is going to lose in a landslide to every Dem loony...
Tariffs are going to destroy our economy...
A recession is imminent...
White males will kill us all...
Trump’s Nazi terrorists will kill everyone...
Florida will cease to exist by a direct hit from Dorian...
Robots will become sentient and murder us in our sleep...
Republicans will put y’all back in chains...
But enough about the Drudge Report...
It’s what the media does. We all apparently want to read and watch how many ways we will cease to exist — and how leftists can save us from our terrible, imminent, horrible demise.
Like when TWC names every winter storm.
Living in St. Petersburg, I’ve been tracking it very closely and concur that the path has been gradually shifting eastward over the last several days. With every shift, I relaxed a little more. With Irma, it was the opposite - I thought we were clear based on the models having it hit around Ft. Lauderdale, but it came up through Ft. Myers instead. Daily conditions can alter the path and we need to be aware of that.
But I still have 20 sandbags filled just in case the next one comes this way.
I thought Katrina hit the Louisiana coast as a Cat 3 and lost strength as it moved up to Mississippi. What caught New Orleans residents off-guard was the tremendous flooding from all that rain finally sluicing down the Mississippi River three days later. That overwhelmed the mismanaged and dilapidated system of levees around the city. Residents thought the danger had passed with the hurricane but didn’t reckon on the floods.
Chicken Little Times headline: “Dorian Strikes the Bahamas. Miami and Orlando Hardest Hit.”
they said was hard to predict.. and if it had hit with no warning they would have been pounced on.
GIGO.
Garbage in garbage out.
Hey, good fodder for a government grant to study why that is.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.