Posted on 09/01/2019 2:07:56 AM PDT by CptnObvious
What Happened to ALL the Dorian Computer Models Hitting Florida?
Was it me, or were ALL the computer models hitting Florida for several days. And I don't remember even one predicting it going to the east of Florida and up beside the US East Coast.
Now, all but one predict it NOT hitting Florida, the one predicting a loop into Florida and back then zipping up the coast with all the other models.
My question is, What Happened to change all the Computer Models, in one day so drastically. How did all the computer models get changed like this so fast?
Were we getting Played?
Prayer. Many of us have been praying for our fellow Americans and for the storm to move northeast.
They were based on the same democrat party models that they would win in a landslide against trump. WAY off....
We prayed the spray away. I’m not kidding.
Here is what happened. Dorian is now moving west as predicted because there is a large high pressure north generally centered around Bermuda and whose nose is being extended westward into the US. So the storm is being forced west. The forecast models of 3 days ago showed the high pressure not moving and forcing Dorian into Florida and then moving north once inland.
However, there was always the question as to when the nose of the high pressure retreating to the east would occur and the NHC was quite clear in its discussion section they were not quite certain when this would occur but the path at the moment is the most likely. The NHC was moving the path a bit east every 3 hours and then yesterday morning moved it offshore since it became clear when the models started to agree the high pressure would retreat east sooner then previous runs of the models suggested. The high pressure retreating east allows the storm to move north instead of west.
I just checked the Sunday 5 am update and the path has actually moved a bit west again, a bit closer to the coast based on the movement of the high.
The storm is forecast to really slow down, too (which was forecast several days+ ago. It is moving at only 8 mph and is scheduled to almost stop. So this will do two things. The upwelling of the water will cause it to lose some strength because there will be cooler water on the surface and the second one is that it will hang out in more shallow water and can't get as much energy from shallow water so it is forecast to lose some strength today.
The important thing to keep in mind is that the NHC is really good with their 3 day forecast and not as good for day 4 or day 5. Notice their forecast does not extend beyond 5 days. Their 4 day forecast is off by an average of 155 miles and the 5 day forecast is off by 205 miles. So I have been watching this closely. Their 3 days are spot on, but when looking at the 4th or 5th day, just be aware that it will change.
These storms are so huge, that a slight shift makes a big difference. The hurricane force winds extend 30 miles out, so a slight shift at landfall can make a big difference as to whether your house is obliterated or stands.
They are MODELS. ALL models are wrong, though some are useful. These were not useful.
That is not true at all.
Prayer happened. Twitter asked and shared prayers aaking that all pray for an early turn and the Florida be spared.
Excellent post.
I’m always amazed that we can’t figure out weather 5 days before, but are convinced what will happen in 12 years and the year 2100. Doesn’t make sense.
They changed
The storm is being influenced by a high in the Atlantic. How much influence changes
Your meteorologist should have told you that
Same computer models used to predict global cooling then global warming now climate change. The GIGO rule of basic programming still holds true, Garbage In, Garbage Out.
And didn’t use the federal money you had received, for years, to shore up the levy’s, stole as much of it as you and your friends could and then try to blame on the President and end up in prison...that, too.
You’ve got to be watching this one closely then. You’re very much in the sights, the last I looked.
If there were only 1 or 2 models, they would really look bad... But with 20, it’s our own fault if we believe/don’t believe any of them.
Hurricane forecasting has got noticeably better over the last 15 years or so from what I’ve seen, but it’s obviously still not quite there yet. What I don’t want to see is them going back to the sky is falling method where they issue an evacuation warning every time a minor storm brews. That was the cause of much needless loss of life in Katrina. I’m in Mississippi and at the time the weather forecasters liked to overplay the risk for every storm, whether that was for advertising revenue or to cover their rear I don’t know, but they always took a chicken little approach and the result was hurricane warning burnout. We would get so many hurricane warnings that people stopped taking them seriously, I think there had been about ten of them over the two years prior to Katrina. When the big one finally arrived a lot of people didn’t listen because we’d had so many grossly exaggerated ones before. People just ignored them until it was too late.
Forecasters run the risk of being ignored if they sensationalize every storm. There’s a middle ground where they need to keep the public informed while not disrupting people’s lives needlessly.
I heard that national weather service last year obtained a new super computer that would help their forecasting greatly.
I know, I know — they get these things wrong. There are just too many variables.
BUT, HOWEVER, NEVERTHELESS, NOTWITHSTANDING: they know exactly what the weather and climate will be like in 50 years; trust them!
Trump’s fault.
The Bahamas? I’ll gladly investigate their condition, oh, say in about 23 days from now. I’ll report back. I hope it’s positive.
Study Chaos Theory/Complexity Theory/Sensitive Dependence on Initial Conditions. Let me know when you can model weather on the Earth days out perfectly.
Do we understand every single variable involved?
If no, GIGO.
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