What Happened to ALL the Dorian Computer Models Hitting Florida?

Vanity | 9/1/2019 | Self

[CptnObvious]

What Happened to ALL the Dorian Computer Models Hitting Florida?

Was it me, or were ALL the computer models hitting Florida for several days. And I don't remember even one predicting it going to the east of Florida and up beside the US East Coast.

Now, all but one predict it NOT hitting Florida, the one predicting a loop into Florida and back then zipping up the coast with all the other models.

My question is, What Happened to change all the Computer Models, in one day so drastically. How did all the computer models get changed like this so fast?

Were we getting Played?

[GaryCrow]

“I thought Katrina hit the Louisiana coast as a Cat 3 and lost strength as it moved up to Mississippi. What caught New Orleans residents off-guard was the tremendous flooding from all that rain finally sluicing down the Mississippi River three days later. That overwhelmed the mismanaged and dilapidated system of levees around the city. Residents thought the danger had passed with the hurricane but didn’t reckon on the floods.”

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No, that’s incorrect. Katrina hit Mississippi, not Louisiana, specifically the eye came ashore right around Pass Christian MS. It pretty much wiped the Mississippi Gulf Coast off the map with a storm surge of 28’. It had come across a marshy portion of a peninsula in southeast Louisiana but the real landfall was in Mississippi. What happened in New Orleans was the storm pushed a wall of water into Lake Borgne and Lake Pontchartrain which overwhelmed the levees and flooded the city, New Orleans wasn’t actually hit by the hurricane itself. It was a Cat 3 by wind speed but the storm was massive and that’s what drove the big storm surge that did most of the damage. The hurricane rating system is flawed, a big Cat 3 can do a lot more damage than a small Cat 5. It just goes by wind speed which doesn’t tell you everything about a hurricane’s power.

[lodi90]

A thirty mile shift and devastation.

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Yep. If this one shifts like Irma did it will be a FL landfall. They make a cone for a reason. This is not an exact prediction.

[Exit148]

My DH and I took a course in weather forecasting during a time when we sailed a lot. The big thing I took away from that very interesting course was that meteorologists can explain everything that happened —- after the fact!

[reg45]

It is now Category 5.

[poconopundit]

Garbage in, Garbage out. * * * I'm sure there's some of that.  My impression of forecasting is there are a gazillion number of variables to track to achieve accuracy. The worst hurricane predictions by the climate scientists was in 2013. Their prediction of 14 storms was pretty accurate, but they predicted 8 hurricanes when only 2 actually materialized. An average of 4 major hurricanes was predicted, but none occurred. How do you trace Dorian back to that butterfly in Brazil who flapped her wings? Better yet, how do you calculate the Earth is toast in 11.5 years because there's no Green Deal?  Logic is not the Leftists' strong suit.  President Trump needs to privatize the NOAA and pay, in part, based on accuracy of prediction.

[FrdmLvr]

I think it was wishful thinking. The climate change promoters predicted huge hurricanes and lots of them. It’s Sept 1 and this is only D.

[I got the rope]

Ratings. Also to try and make the Floridian Governor and our President look bad if it hit.

[HotHunt]

Your name should be CptnOblivious instead.

Storms like this are dynamic, not static. Things change hour by hour that will affect the path and intensity of this hurricane.

I'm in Florida and have been watching the forecasts and movements carefully. Yesterday, a high pressure in the Atlantic north of the storm started to weaken and the northern jet stream pushed further south, causing the predictions that the hurricane will turn more north and east after the Bahamas. And that the eyeball will stay off shore in Florida and not make a direct landfall hit.

Even this scenario is uncertain. It can change again. But it also means Florida will get heavy rains and high winds regardless.

If you want to know what happened, you need to stay informed instead of thinking one forecast is the final forecast. Predicting the future is fraught with uncertainty. And that goes for hurricane forecasting. It can change by the hour.

[bray]

They may not be able to model hurricanes but they can model Climate Change 60 yrs out.

[hecticskeptic]

Nobody wants a repeat of Katrina, where you waited and then you can’t get out.

Don't disagree with your overall premise but you sure didn't pick the right example.... at least if you were referring to New Orleans. The system of levees there were so bad they were already to break....

[Midwesterner53]

Maybe climate change changed its course? These Voodoo scientists know as much about hurricanes as they do climate.

[FatherofFive]

Watching those models change would be a fun afternoon!

[HotHunt]

My wife was born and raised in Florida and we live there now.

She said yesterday that the weather forecasts are a blessing, even if the exact predictions aren't precisely accurate. Because it gives people time to react, prepare, evacuate or whatever they need to do to make themselves and their properties safe.

Years ago, before better weather forecasting and TV and the internet, the hurricanes would just slam the state out of nowhere with no warning at all she said.

It was much worse not knowing they were coming than knowing they're out there and headed in your direction even if the information was not certain.

So instead of wondering whether "we were played", you should count your blessings that we have some information nowadays rather than no information about the hurricanes, as was the case decades ago.

[equaviator]

I do think it’s a good thing to have these weather/meteorology-related channels. I remember the Weather Channel in Myrtle Beach where a live audio-only report on conditions on the Atlantic sounded like a guy transmitting from a row boat way out there somewhere. The graphics showing weather-related data were high-contrast bands of background and text...No footage or pics...That was during the Christmas holiday week in 1997. They’ve come a long way.

[DownInFlames]

Climate changed. The high pressure ridge on the eastern side of Dorian is weakening and heading east. As it heads east so will Dorian.

[DownInFlames]

OBX is going get nailed.

[Steve Van Doorn]

asked, "I don't remember even one predicting it going to the east of Florida"
I did. but I don't watch the news.

http://climateviewer.org/3d/

[Tallguy]

“Hurricanes never seem to hit the area they’re aimed at.”

Like they say in NASCAR: aim right for the spinning car in front of you, by the time you get there it will be gone.

Statistically the safest place to be might be on the predicted landfall — but I wouldn’t be my life on it.

[nuconvert]

Looks like its headed for Daytona & Jacksonville. Watch out St. Augustine

[bgill]

Much like inaccurate political polls, too many wanted direct hit on Mar-a-Largo.