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We will find you: DNA search used to nab GS Killer can home in on about 60% of white Americans
ScienceMag.org ^ | Oct 11, 2018 | Jocelyn Kaiser

Posted on 10/12/2018 9:58:52 AM PDT by ETL

If you’re white, live in the United States, and a distant relative has uploaded their DNA to a public ancestry database, there’s a good chance an internet sleuth can identify you from a DNA sample you left somewhere. That’s the conclusion of a new study, which finds that by combining an anonymous DNA sample with some basic information such as someone’s rough age, researchers could narrow that person’s identity to fewer than 20 people by starting with a DNA database of 1.3 million individuals.

Such a search could potentially allow the identification of about 60% of white Americans from a DNA sample—even if they have never provided their own DNA to an ancestry database. “In a few years, it’s really going to be everyone,” says study leader Yaniv Erlich, a computational geneticist at Columbia University.

The study was sparked by the April arrest of the alleged “Golden State Killer,” a California man accused of a series of decades-old rapes and murders. To find him—and more than a dozen other criminal suspects since then—law enforcement agencies first test a crime scene DNA sample, which could be old blood, hair, or semen, for hundreds of thousands of DNA markers—signposts along the genome that vary among people, but whose identity in many cases are shared with blood relatives. They then upload the DNA data to GEDmatch, a free online database where anyone can share their data from consumer DNA testing companies such as 23andMe and Ancestry.com to search for relatives who have submitted their DNA. Searching GEDMatch’s nearly 1 million profiles revealed several relatives who were the equivalent to third cousins to the crime scene DNA linked to the Golden State Killer. Other information such as genealogical records, approximate age, and crime locations then allowed the sleuths to home in on a single person.

Geneticists quickly speculated this approach could identify many people from an unknown DNA sequence. But to quantify just how many, Erlich and colleagues took a closer look at the MyHeritage database, which contains 1.28 million DNA profiles of individuals looking at their family history. (Erlich is chief science officer of the ancestry DNA testing company.) If you live in the United States and are of European ancestry, there’s a 60% chance you have a third cousin or closer relative in this database, the team projected. Their success rate was similar when they did searches for 30 random profiles in GEDmatch. (The odds drop to 40% for someone of sub-Saharan African ancestry in the MyHeritage database.)

Assuming you have a relative in one of these databases, what are the chances police could find you from an unidentified DNA sample, the way they nabbed the alleged Golden State Killer? To find out, Erlich and colleagues combined the MyHeritage database information with family trees, and demographic data such as rough age and likely geographic location. On average, that allowed them to use a hypothetical DNA sequence to home in on 17 “suspects” from a pool of about 850 people, the team reports today in Science.

GEDmatch likely only encompasses about 0.5% of the U.S. adult population, but millions of Americans are using DNA ancestry testing services. Once the GEDmatch figure rises to 2%, more than 90% of people of European descent will have a third cousin or closer relative and could be found in this way. “It’s surprising how small the database needs to be,” says population geneticist Noah Rosenberg of Stanford University in Palo Alto, California, who was not involved with the work.

Rosenberg and colleagues showed last year that a profile in a consumer DNA database can be matched up with the same person’s profile in law enforcement forensic DNA databases, even though they use a different, smaller set of DNA markers. Today in Cell, they report that more than 30% of individuals in the forensic databases can also be linked to a sibling, parent, or child in a consumer database. The two types of databases combined could make it even easier to find a suspect from a DNA sample. The linked consumer DNA profile could also reveal physical appearance or medical information for a criminal or their relatives, such as genes for eye color or a disease, even though the forensic databases aren’t supposed to contain that kind of information. “More can be done with them than has been claimed,” Rosenberg says.

Although these studies are encouraging news for solving crimes, they raise privacy concerns for law-abiding citizens, Erlich says. One possible solution suggested by his team is that the consumer DNA testing companies digitally encrypt a customer’s data and that GEDMatch only allow these encrypted files to be uploaded. That way a law enforcement agency couldn’t upload DNA sequence data from its own lab without an ancestry company’s cooperation. (The police can’t just pretend to be a customer and send crime scene DNA samples to companies like 23andMe because the company’s sequencing machines typically can’t process scant, degraded DNA samples.)

Erlich also thinks U.S. officials need to revisit federal rules protecting people who volunteer for research studies. A recently revised guideline for biomedical researchers, called the Common Rule, assumes that a research participant can’t easily be identified from their anonymized DNA profile. But in its paper, Erlich’s team used GEDMatch to identify a woman who was part of a study using her anonymized DNA profile and birth date, which is often publicly available to researchers.

Genetic policy experts agree that changes to how genealogy databases and DNA sequencing firms operate or are regulated are needed. The digital signature might be “a partial solution,” says law professor Natalie Ram of the University of Baltimore in Maryland. But all the players in the direct-to-consumer DNA sequencing industry would have to agree to this scheme, she notes. “If not, we’re back to square one.”

Instead, she and others recently argued in Science that states and Congress should pass laws limiting situations where law enforcement can use genealogy databases to find suspects. It may be reasonable for a murder case, but not for a petty crime, Ram says. “Finding the right balance is important.”


TOPICS: Chit/Chat
KEYWORDS: genealogy; godsgravesglyphs; goldenstatekiller; helixmakemineadouble
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To: Covenantor

Probably mine too. I worked for the Fed Gov in 2 agencies and I was also in banking.


61 posted on 10/12/2018 11:09:36 AM PDT by SaveFerris (Luke 17:28 ... as it was in the days of Lot; they did eat, they drank, they bought, they sold ......)
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To: ETL; SunkenCiv
The 'Father Of Humanity' Lived 239,000 Years Ago: Landmark DNA Study In Iceland Reveals New Insights Into Evolution And Disease

"Scientists see Iceland as a goldmine for doing genetics research. The country was founded by a small group of settlers from Europe arriving about 1,100 years ago and it remained isolated for the next thousand years"

There are 360,000 closely related people living in Iceland today.

62 posted on 10/12/2018 11:10:30 AM PDT by blam
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To: Go_Raiders

“both uploaded”

You’ve increased your chances of getting arrested for something you didn’t do.

False positive means the comparison results in a match when there actually isn’t one.


63 posted on 10/12/2018 11:11:58 AM PDT by fruser1
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To: SaveFerris
Oh yes. Are they assigning SSN’s at birth? I actually don’t know.

Yes. They are. Can't claim a dependent on your taxes without a SSN for them.

64 posted on 10/12/2018 11:13:31 AM PDT by IYAS9YAS (There are two kinds of people: Those who can extrapolate from incomplete data.)
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To: SaveFerris

Thanks for the links, great articles.


65 posted on 10/12/2018 11:13:48 AM PDT by Sergio (An object at rest cannot be stopped! - The Evil Midnight Bomber What Bombs at Midnight)
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To: euram
"DNA is a fantastic tool. I recently had my 96-year-old mother take a DNA test. Her mother, my grandmother, was adopted in 1889, and we had no idea who her biological parents were. Thanks to some 2nd and 3rd cousin matches, within 3 weeks of getting her results, I had found both my grandmother’s birth mother and the biological father."

My dad's mother (Mrs Smith) has the same mtDNA as Cheddar Man

66 posted on 10/12/2018 11:13:48 AM PDT by blam
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To: IYAS9YAS

Thank you for the info. I was thinking it was happening but hadn’t checked in awhile.


67 posted on 10/12/2018 11:14:26 AM PDT by SaveFerris (Luke 17:28 ... as it was in the days of Lot; they did eat, they drank, they bought, they sold ......)
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To: Grampa Dave
Retinal scans...hmm

Wonder what retinal scan test results of Barbra Streisand's cloned dogs would return?

for Blade Runner fans I offer


68 posted on 10/12/2018 11:16:17 AM PDT by Covenantor (Men are ruled...by liars who refuse them news, and by fools who cannot govern. " Chesterton)
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To: Sergio

One, an actual victim of Hillary Rodham Clinton’s book.

With even Nancy Pelosi showing up in the story. Yikes.


69 posted on 10/12/2018 11:16:27 AM PDT by SaveFerris (Luke 17:28 ... as it was in the days of Lot; they did eat, they drank, they bought, they sold ......)
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To: a fool in paradise
It’s going to be everyone or just white folk?

We did it to ourselves, with the fad over ancestry research.

Besides, "if you have nothing to hide, you have nothing to fear."

70 posted on 10/12/2018 11:21:02 AM PDT by Pearls Before Swine ("It's always a party when you're eating the seed corn.")
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To: SaveFerris

It almost seems like associating with or emulating powerful liberals shortens one’s lifespan. Strange no?

And yet all the rich and powerful uber liberals always seem to have the money and connections to insulate themselves from the results of their actions, leaving the rest of us to stew in the mess they created.


71 posted on 10/12/2018 11:26:33 AM PDT by Sergio (An object at rest cannot be stopped! - The Evil Midnight Bomber What Bombs at Midnight)
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To: American in Israel
Harder to profile ancestry when 70% dont have fathers.

Everybody has a father, genetically speaking.

72 posted on 10/12/2018 11:26:55 AM PDT by Mr.Unique (The government, by its very nature, cannot give except what it first takes.)
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To: blam; ETL; fieldmarshaldj; Red Badger; 240B; 75thOVI; Adder; albertp; asgardshill; At the Window; ..
Thanks blam for the ping and link, ETL for the topic. Good digest ping topic, have a great weekend, all!

73 posted on 10/12/2018 11:28:47 AM PDT by SunkenCiv (and btw -- https://www.gofundme.com/for-rotator-cuff-repair-surgery)
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To: Sergio

Of course, Hillary and Nancy never “actually” insert themselves into the dangerous systems they promote.

They always have heavily-armed security around them and cameras to record any event.

It’s so stupid, a 5-year-old could see through it.

But not their Democrat followers.....


74 posted on 10/12/2018 11:31:12 AM PDT by SaveFerris (Luke 17:28 ... as it was in the days of Lot; they did eat, they drank, they bought, they sold ......)
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To: Covenantor

That gear is about as old as I am.

BOL!


75 posted on 10/12/2018 11:33:48 AM PDT by Grampa Dave (Dems @ the Kavanaugh lynching, told the world that non gay men of any color have Zero future w/them!)
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To: SaveFerris; teeman8r

It is “home in on,” and never, never, never “hone in on.”

“Use hone to describe someone working hard, perfecting or sharpening skills, as in “She is honing her skills as an actress by working in community theater.”


76 posted on 10/12/2018 12:33:53 PM PDT by dsc (Our system of government cannot survive one-party control of communications.)
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To: dsc

Thanks


77 posted on 10/12/2018 12:39:42 PM PDT by SaveFerris (Luke 17:28 ... as it was in the days of Lot; they did eat, they drank, they bought, they sold ......)
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To: SaveFerris
But not their Democrat followers.....

I wonder if outcomes in education are better or worse than average in Democrat strongholds?

I mean Democrats are always harping about improving education, but they seem to have a vested interest in a voting population that is devoid of logic and critical thinking skills.

78 posted on 10/12/2018 1:01:51 PM PDT by Sergio (An object at rest cannot be stopped! - The Evil Midnight Bomber What Bombs at Midnight)
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To: Sergio

As long as that “education” is their Marxist, Socialist, pro-gay, pro-abortion agenda including rewritten history.

That’s “education” to Democrats.

We call it by the correct term: “brainwashing”.


79 posted on 10/12/2018 1:11:49 PM PDT by SaveFerris (Luke 17:28 ... as it was in the days of Lot; they did eat, they drank, they bought, they sold ......)
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To: dsc

thanks for honing my grammar skills that i will home in on using better.


80 posted on 10/12/2018 1:24:27 PM PDT by teeman8r (Armageddon won't be pretty, but it's not like it's the end of the world.)
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