Posted on 04/24/2018 8:17:09 PM PDT by JLAGRAYFOX
Pubbies easily win House Special Electionover Democrat in Arizona 8th CD!!!
Except that the party in power historically loses in the mid-terms.
How are Tuesday’s results not a warning sign that we could lose it all in November?
A loss of 14 points because it is an off Presidential year election, means less even enthusiasm in November, which means these races will be much closer than expected.
And when they are close, the Dem fraud machine kicks in.
And the GOP loses again.
Because you comparing apples to yogurt
Trumps numbers should never be used to determine how a local race should go
It is one thing to lose seats it is another to lose the house. We will not lose the house. What the seat differential is we will have to wait and see
Your hysteria and breathlessness comes right out of dem headquarters
They want you to think we’re losing
Oh, just stop.
It is not breathless, and it is not out of Dem HQ.
If the GOP does not solidly get behind Trump now, they will lose in November.
That is what the electorate will respond to.
Trump will once again drag them across the finish line, kicking and screaming,if they follow him.
Ryan, McConnell and Daniels give me zero confidence.
So, get off your @ss and get out the vote before we lose it all.
You can be less desperate already.
I’m not on any ones keester. You asked a question. You don’t like my answer. That’s fine.
Nov will come and go. The earth will continue to revolve on its axis
Not the point.
But I’m done on this topic.
You need to breathe a little
Don’t need your advice.
Don’t want it either.
You’re the one who launched this.
Actually you did with your original post
Time will tell all
Your post 114 started the ball rolling.
My posts through #112 were fact, and my analysis had no personal insults.
Lordy, could you at least be honest?
I don’t think McConnell ever came to realize that he wouldn’t have been majority leader had any other R been the party’s candidate in 2016. Several seats the Rs were SURE to lose, they won. PA comes to mind.
Check your post at #18 which started it all
Your so called fact is that Yrump won the district by 20 which has nothing to do with the current race or what will happen in the fall
I ain’t mad at you. I agree no matter what work hard and get out the vote.
There’s one key problem with your analysis: The present 8th and pre-2012 8th are not the same district or areas. The 2003-2013 8th was located in the SE corner of the state, centered on Tucson and Cochise County. That district became the 2nd beginning in 2013 and sends Martha McSally.
The current 8th was within the pre-2012 2nd (which was considerably chopped up) and centered on NW Phoenix and all of Mohave County on the NV & UT borders, so the NW corner of the state, and extended eastward to take in the Hopi Reservation. Only the NW Phoenix area remained in the “new” 8th, with the rest distributed to other districts, mostly the 4th and 1st.
As you know, AZ’s “Independent” redistricting board is leftist and drew the delegation to be 5 Democrats and 4 Republicans for the 2012 elections. McSally’s victory in 2014 turned that to a 5R-4D delegation. Were Republicans in charge of redistricting, as the legislature SHOULD be, this would be a 7R-2D state, and those two other RED Democrats (O’Halleran in the 1st and SINema in the 8th) would be gone, leaving just the ultraradicals Grijalva and Gallego.
I never bought she was down. This was a gerrymandered district to elect a Republican by Democrats in order to elect them a majority on a minority of votes. Not a district to elect a “RED” Democrat.
Ugh yeah, one reason I hate why they change district number is it can confuse people, even Proffessors! :0)
Barber was ousted in 2014, very narrowly, by MCSALLY, he had “beaten’ her by less than a point in 2012.
Franks (first elected in 2002 not 2012) never had in a close race in his seat which IS typically “red” under both the 2002 and 2012 lines and is carried by wide margins by GOP Presidential candidates, I can’t say this wasn’t a deal closer than you’d want.
I’m not overly worried about these close special elections though (and lost state leg seats) Dems are very motivated for them but if GOP turnout is normal in November they won’t touch districts like this.
Connor Lambchop ran as a no-Pelosi DINO and “won” by a small margin in a district that won’t exist next year, big deal, he’s 50/50 to remain running in a close district but against a GOP incumbent.
Moore losing was a huge deal cause the Senate is close and that’s for 4 years but it wasn’t because of any party weakness but an atrocious candidate with foot in mouth disease. Senator Fag-lover McBabykiller will be out on his *ss in 2020 as Trump beats whoever by over 20 points there.
The one House special in close district, in GA, was a dogfight that we WON.
The lost state leg seats displease me but they were all very light turnout. You aren’t gonna have 10% turnout in the midterms and that means rats won’t touch “red” districts.
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