Posted on 02/08/2018 2:12:16 PM PST by CincyRichieRich
I'm an investor, and like most here, overwhelmed with the sources to read, the Q Anon stuff, the stimuli, the conspiracies...and now, a few days of stock market drops - including today's 1000 pt drop. I'd like to discuss with anyone who will participate, as to causes, where from here, etc.
It will stop. It always has.
You cannot have an endless party of cheap money and fat spending. The real problems start when the 10 year treasury goes up to 4% or higher.
Don’t look at your invested money everyday. You will not get too high on the highs or low on the lows.
Get in.
Sit down.
Shut up.
Hold on..................
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eRmTrWVqSas
Just got paid I got a little money
Aftershave and after a honey
Got my name on a shot of Jack whiskey
Gonna roll with me, you gotta roll quickly
Get in, sit down, shut up and hold on
Can’t wait, too late, it’s time to get gone
Show up downtown, get us a buzz on
Get in, sit down, shut up and hold on
(Oh oh oh oh oh oh, Oh oh oh oh oh oh)
Shoot a little pool, shoot a little 8 ball
Ain’t goin’ home
Make a little phone call
Feelin’ pretty good
Stumble out the front door
She pulls up in a farm girl Ford singin’
Get in, sit down, shut up, and hold on
Can’t wait, too late, it’s time to get gone
Find us a dirt road get a groove on
Get in, sit down, shut up and hold on
There’s no time like night time and the moonlight
To have a good time
Baby let’s throw down, don’t slow down
If I’m gonna go down
I’m gonna go down crazy
Get in, sit down, shut up and hold on
Can’t wait, too late, it’s time to get gone
Find us a dirt road and get a groove on
Get in, sit down, shut up and hold on
(Oh oh oh oh oh oh, Oh oh oh oh oh oh)
Get in.
Sit down.
Shut up.
Hold on!
There’s no time than the night time
In the moonlight, to have a good time
Baby lets throw down, don’t slow down
If I go down, I’m gonna go down crazy
(Oh oh oh oh oh oh, Oh oh oh oh oh oh,
Oh oh oh oh oh oh, Oh oh oh oh oh oh)
Songwriters: Bobby Pinson / Toby Keith Covel
Shut Up And Hold On lyrics © DO Write Music LLC
Stocks were overbought
Soros is attacking the markets to punish Trump
Earnings are done, sell on the fact...
Everyone was waiting for a crack, now it’s here
Program trading kicked in as various sell programs had been set up
I suspect that a large number of investors are locking in profits. Would have to drop another 2,000 before I suspect panic selling to kick in.
There has been speculation that some central banks had been buying equities to prop up markets under Obama, and maybe Yellen’s departure was the sell signal to them, lest Trump’s success undermine the globalist progressive agenda. I try not to be conspiratorial, but Soros did say he’d give up half his fortune in 2004 to guarantee Bush’s defeat. There are big media company CEOs that gladly give up ratings/ad dollars to push the progressive agenda as well.
A good time to short sell!
If you own 1 share of Berkshire Hathaway you lost $13,000 today.
I got my brothers out on Tuesday.
On Monday, an entire asset class was destroyed - XIVs. There was a 91% swing which activated a termination event, and poof, $3.4B gone.
Then HNA, one of China’s biggest companies, their Real Estate Group missed a $270M interest payment. Technical default - triggering event.
Wednesday, a calmer day, the Plunge Protection Team was wearing out the buy button it appeared.
Thursday, HNA is forced to sell billions in US properties - immediately. They are $15B in the hole. They own a ton of Deutsche Bank stock too.
The kindling under this is companies borrowing money to buy their own stock. The loans stay, the value will go away.
Add to that the $1.2B in automotive loan debt, the automotive industry’s addiction to leasing, and the 9% default rate on auto loans (more than 20% now made to people with FICO < 660).
Automotive is 3% of GDP and 5% of overall employment. It impacts 50% of all US business in some way.
Student loan defaults are through the roof, 6 year (yes, 6) graduation rates are below 60 percent.
Add it all up and there is no middle class to get your economy back on track.
Enter the tax cut - repatriate cash in order to get hiring up and let people work their way out of the debt.
If China doesn’t collapse, it might work.
Pressure on interest rates, however, will make consumer borrowing on autos and homes more expensive. It MAY also, however, drive the price of homes down, which would be good.
If you throw in any bad actors out there trying to tank the market to spite Trump, its a tall order for anybody, even a savvy dude like President Trump.
... on second thought, maybe Donald should do as obama recently suggested and say “Thank You, Obama!” ... like yeah this be Obama’s economy, he ran up the market with his easy money, 0%, Q/E shitte.
Take your cash out of the market and visit the casino as often as you wish.
It is more fun and the owners are more honest.
“Investing?—lol.”
Repatriating money destabilizing European banks?
China issues?
If you are truly “an investor” (i.e. in for the long haul), then you really shouldn’t care. If you need money in the short term, it should already be out of the market. The market goes up, and the market goes down. But in the long run, it goes up.
Every time the market takes a bit dip like it did today, i buy a little bit more (taking cash from my IRA and buying index funds). Buy on the dips...
I’m fairly ignorant of this stuff, but I was expecting that there would be a crypto-crash at some point, that would set off a general sell-off. Was hoping that it would occur sooner rather than later, when it would be much more damaging. So that’s what I think happened. This is still “sooner” in my book.
The problem is debt and trillion dollar deficits as far as the eye can see.
“Turn the machines back on” Mortimer Duke
Very few private investors use borrowed money. And I doubt the hedge funds are as powerful as they were in 08 to bring the market down.
Perusing some comments on this thread, seems like people are calling it pretty good.
BUt, I’ll say this as a 26 yr professional veteran.... Volatility like this usually sticks around for a while. 12-18 months.
Unless this really is all attack by Soros, then it might be like the Flash Crash. I’d be lying if I said I knew which of the two...
Tomorrow I suspect we hit a 10% correction, and for many that will signal a buying opportunity. Not sure I’d jump in, unless just to hit a trade, but at 15% I’m really in.
Be interesting to see if much money winds its way over to the bond market. It’s been a bad market for 2-3 yrs on bonds so...
“..Don’t look at your invested money everyday. You will not get too high on the highs or low on the lows....”
Not bad advice, skinndog.
I also trade derivatives and those need to be reviewed pretty often, especially on days with large movements, both up and down. I had a few PUTs that I had bought a few weeks back that made me some good money today to help stop the “bleeding”. I also bought some long CALLS right at the end of the day when it nose-dived that should go up quickly when it turns around.
But yeah, you are right on target for long-term investments; it’s very good advice.
Ridiculous. If thats the case, why did they let it go up 30% in his first year in office?
This is a correction. A long overdue one. No big deal.
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