Posted on 04/01/2017 10:34:54 PM PDT by Ernest_at_the_Beach
From the Swiss National Science Foundation (SNSF)
Suns impact on climate change quantified for first time
For the first time, model calculations show a plausible way that fluctuations in solar activity could have a tangible impact on the climate. Studies funded by the Swiss National Science Foundation expect human-induced global warming to tail off slightly over the next few decades. A weaker sun could reduce temperatures by half a degree.
There is human-induced climate change, and there are natural climate fluctuations. One important factor in the unchanging rise and fall of the Earths temperature and its different cycles is the sun. As its activity varies, so does the intensity of the sunlight that reaches us. One of the key questions facing climate researchers is whether these fluctuations have any effect at all on the Earths climate. IPCC reports assume that recent solar activity is insignificant for climate change, and that the same will apply to activity in the near future.
Researchers from the Physical Meteorological Observatory Davos (PMOD), the Swiss Federal Institute of Aquatic Science and Technology (EAWAG), ETH Zurich and the University of Bern are now qualifying this assumption. Their elaborate model calculations are supplying a robust estimate of the contribution that the sun is expected to make to temperature change in the next 100 years. For the first time, a significant effect is apparent. They expect the Earths temperature to fall by half a degree when solar activity reaches its next minimum.
According to project head Werner Schmutz, who is also Director of PMOD, this reduction in temperature is significant, even though it will do little to compensate for human-induced climate change. We could win valuable time if solar activity declines and slows the pace of global warming a little. That might help us to deal with the consequences of climate change. But this will be no more than borrowed time, warns Schmutz, since the next minimum will inevitably be followed by a maximum.
At the end of March, the researchers working on the project will meet in Davos for a conference to discuss the final results. The project brought together various research institutions capabilities in terms of climate effect modelling. PMOD calculated what is known as radiative forcing taking account of particle as well as electromagnetic radiation, ETH Zurich worked out its further effects in the Earths atmosphere and the University of Bern investigated the interactions between the atmosphere and oceans.
The Swiss researchers assumed a greater fluctuation in the radiation striking the Earth than previous models had done. Schmutz is convinced that this is the only way that we can understand the natural fluctuations in our climate over the last few millennia. He says that other hypotheses, such as the effect of major volcanic eruptions, are less conclusive.
Exactly how the sun will behave over the next few years remains a matter of speculation, however, since appropriate data series have only been available for a few decades and they reveal no evidence of fluctuations during this time. To that extent, our latest results are still a hypothesis, says Schmutz, and it remains difficult for solar physicists to predict the next cycle. But since we have been observing a consistently strong phase since 1950, it is highly likely that we will experience another low point in 50 to 100 years time. It could be every bit as intense as the Maunder Minimum, which brought particularly cold weather during the 17th century.
The research project also placed great importance on the historical perspective. The Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research at the University of Bern compared data series on past solar activity with other specific climatic conditions. People have been recording the number of sunspots, which correlates well with solar activity levels, for some three centuries now. However, it is much more difficult to quantify exactly how cold it was on Earth back then. We know that the winters during the last minimum were very cold, at least in northern Europe, says Schmutz. The researchers still have a fair amount of work to do before they have a detailed understanding of the relationship between solar activity and the global climate both in the past and in the future.
h/t to The GWPF
Something that will harness the power of cow farts?
Yes this will greatly interfere with global warming. The ocean levels will fall some 400 feet on average with drops of 700 feet not unexpected depending on seabed slopes, while the northern and southern continents take up the water in the form of ice which is expected to reach depths exceeding 3 kilometers on average.
There are two outcomes of this newly discovered climate alteration, or rather cycle: one is that in several thousand years the ice will melt, or that the ice will continue to grow covering the entire planet (Snowball Earth). Both of these outcomes have been repeated throughout geologic time.
Pick one ...
They will pivot and argue that we must redouble our efforts to combat global warming to prevent a catastrophic rise in temperatures once the solar cycle returns to a more active pattern.
This won’t help win the argument, as it’s not about science.
(Algore tied up in sheets)
Wow!!! The warmists have figured out that the sun effects climate for the first time. These guys are real geniuses.
Note also, the key use of the word 'robust'. That's to make you think the authors are really really smart. It's true, though, that the global warming theory is a very 'robust' theory, for EVERY observation of weather conclusively proves the theory (to the true believers).
I figure i bet on cold when i ordered my new sled for next winter!
Dont worry folks, I have 2 RZ500 Yamaha 2 Stroke Motorcycles that spew massive amounts of CO2, I will ride both of them today and fly my Airplane for a couple hours to make up the difference.
I have 2 RZ500 Yamaha 2 Stroke Motorcycles that spew massive amounts of CO2,
I might be interested in taking one of those RZ500’s off your hands if your interested in selling one.
OK!! Everybody pay attention!
Lesson for today:
1. The sun is 1,300,000 times as big as the earth.
2. The sun is a giant nuclear furnace that controls the climates of all its planets.
3. The earth is one of the suns planets.
4. The earth is a speck in comparison to the size of the sun.
5. Inhabitants of the earth are less than specks.
Study Question: How do less-than-specks in congress plan to control the sun?
Unfortunately you will have to wait til I die before my Wife can sell any of my toys. I have 2 RD 400’s also. There was an RZ500 on Ebay a couple weeks ago, but it sold fast.
if you put a wanted ad on rzrd500.com there is a good chance you can find one, but it won’t be easy, and you CAN NOT Import them anymore, so make sure it is titled already in the US. Plan on spending 10-15K
——will meet in Davos for a conference-—
There you have it.
The reason for the work is to go to conferences. Meeting in lavish hotels with the stops pulled out is justification for a drab, dingy life.
Conferences are a reason for promoting progressive causes
I’m confused...should I listen to this moronic liberal...or the last one who said global warming is affecting the solar system...
On a scale of 0 to 100 the impact on Earth’s temperature:
CO2 = 0.2
Methane = 2
Water vapor = 5
Sun = 92.8
Methane is actually a climate stabilizer. Limits the big temperature swings.
Almost every time the left has a global warming meeting, it snows. And now this. Who said God doesn’t have a sense of humor.
I don’t blame you one bit for not letting one go, I have a 76 GT 750 i’m in the middle of restoring along with a 73 H2.LOVE 2 STROKES!!
If I’m going to live with a capricious star, can it be Lindsey Lohan?
I have spent more than a half-century using computer models to solve problems. (Starting with a model of a posi-traction car axle using a vacuum tube analog computer.) I always followed the philosophy that "all models are inaccurate, though some are useful."
The Global Circulation Models used by the CAGW tribe are simply not useful. They simply fail to accurately calculate what they are purported to show.
I see Gary Schumake from Spec2 every week, he still holds the Drag Bike 1/4 mile record on his H2. 132 mph in the quarter,4th gear. never could hit 5th.
...a climate model has to deal with thousands of such
vectors...a lot of which the climate scientists don’t entirely understand.
Then throw in that they are biasing the numbers to get a preconceived
result so that they can keep their funding and you get the AGW hoax
AND
statistics NEVER gave you an answer, at best, another question.
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