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Mathematical historian predicts political turmoil will peak in the 2020s (Trunc title)
Daily Mail ^ | 1/5/17 | Abigail Beall

Posted on 01/09/2017 2:42:22 PM PST by Roman_War_Criminal

FULL TITLE: Is civilization heading for a COLLAPSE? Mathematical historian predicts political turmoil will peak in the 2020s

A professor of Ecology and Mathematics from the University of Connecticut, Peter Turchin has led the development of a cross-disciplinary subject called 'cliodynamics'.

'Cliodynamics is a new 'transdisciplinary discipline' that treats history as just another science,' Professor Turchin says.

He started out using maths to predict human activity from 1500 B.C.E. to 1500 C.E.

Then three years ago, using similar models, he began to forecast the future.

'My model indicated that social instability and political violence would peak in the 2020s,' he says.

(Excerpt) Read more at dailymail.co.uk ...


TOPICS: Business/Economy; Conspiracy; History; Society
KEYWORDS: society; turmoil
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To: Roman_War_Criminal

I meant a prediction in, say 2005. Or even in 2012.

Once I heard a couple of Trump’s speeches, I was for him, and was pretty sure he would win, because he was the ONLY candidate (without a piercing, nasal voice like a dentist’s drill) who was speaking in favor of the continued existence of the United States. That sounded like a winning message to me.


21 posted on 01/09/2017 3:17:07 PM PST by Arthur McGowan (https://youtu.be/IYUYya6bPGw)
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To: Roman_War_Criminal

i love Trump, but unfortunately the Republic has been so weakened over the last few decades that he will need to show the skill and wisdom of Washington for our nation to survive.

He might well do it. I hope and pray he is the man this nation has been waiting over 200 years for.

If he is not, then thr Republic, and with it Western Civilisation, is finished


22 posted on 01/09/2017 3:17:31 PM PST by WashingtonFire
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To: Buckeye McFrog
William Strauss and Neil Howe have a cyclical-generation model of history.

They predict a global financial crisis in the 2020s on par with the Great Depression followed by Millennials stepping up to sort things out.

Some kind of crisis is likely. But generations don't always step up when they're supposed to.

23 posted on 01/09/2017 3:18:31 PM PST by x
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To: Roman_War_Criminal

What does Nicholai Kondratiev have to say.


24 posted on 01/09/2017 3:21:07 PM PST by posterchild
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To: Arthur McGowan

Is Trump ‘the mule’ from Asimov’s “Foundation” ?

This “cliodynamics” is very much like the “Hari Seldon” “psychohistory” in Asimovs novels.


25 posted on 01/09/2017 3:22:09 PM PST by buwaya
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To: Hugin

Isaac Asimov, the “Foundation” novels.


26 posted on 01/09/2017 3:23:17 PM PST by buwaya
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To: samtheman

You have to wonder what kind of ignorance has to be at work for the article to contain no mention whatsoever of Asimov.

Just call it psychohistory, dude. The concept has already been named.


27 posted on 01/09/2017 3:26:36 PM PST by thoughtomator (Purple: the color of sedition)
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To: Arthur McGowan

Yes. Three such models did, the simplest one being that Tmp had more total primary votes than Clinton.


28 posted on 01/09/2017 3:27:42 PM PST by Rockingham
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To: Hugin

I agree, except I would say that the effects of Donald Trump’s ascendancy were largely predictable to those of us who are not influenced by the leftist propaganda machine.

Basically, I knew that if one attacked the Left head on, without composite or hesitation, people would rally.

And, yes, my first thought was... Marxism. These kinds of things always come from leftists.

P.S. I love your tag line.


29 posted on 01/09/2017 3:30:12 PM PST by YogicCowboy ("I am not entirely on anyone's side, because no one is entirely on mine." - JRRT)
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To: samtheman

Harry Seldon predicting a crisis?


30 posted on 01/09/2017 3:33:21 PM PST by buckalfa (I am deplorable.)
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To: samtheman
'Cliodynamics is a new 'transdisciplinary discipline' that treats history as just another science,' Professor Turchin says.

Translation: he's publishing a book he hopes will become a compulsory text for classes at his school and others and he can live high on the hog for the rest of his days without having to deal with those bratty students.

31 posted on 01/09/2017 3:34:14 PM PST by relictele (Principiis obsta & Finem respice - Resist The Beginnings & Consider The Ends.)
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To: Red Badger
"The Foundation will rise................"

at stars end.

32 posted on 01/09/2017 3:37:23 PM PST by buckalfa (I am deplorable.)
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To: Arthur McGowan

Well Ann Coulter did but she is hardly a mathematical model.


33 posted on 01/09/2017 3:40:08 PM PST by BBell (calm down and eat your sandwiches)
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To: Roman_War_Criminal

It doesn’t take a rocket scientist or math historian to predict political turmoil. Hope the craziness peaks in a few years but doubt we’ll be that lucky.


34 posted on 01/09/2017 3:43:37 PM PST by bgill (From the CDC site, "We don't know how people are infected with Ebola")
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To: Hugin

Well said.


35 posted on 01/09/2017 3:52:33 PM PST by Bigg Red (To Thee, O Lord, I lift my soul. Thank you for saving our Republic.)
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To: Hugin

> Been tried before, it was called Marxism. It was a failure because it discarded the ability of individuals to change the course of history, among other things. If the election of Trump shows anything, it’s how powerful one individual can be in changing the course of events in unpredictable ways.

Carlyle Great Man theory proven correct again?


36 posted on 01/09/2017 3:54:06 PM PST by RedWulf (Trump:Front Lines. Obama: Back Nine. Hillary:Nap T)
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To: Roman_War_Criminal
Sounds like he's derivative of Arnold Toynbee from the first half of the 20th century.

In his Study of History Toynbee describes the rise and decline of 23 civilisations. His over-arching analysis was the place of moral and religious challenge, and response to such challenge, as the reason for the robustness or decline of a civilisation. He described parallel life cycles of growth, dissolution, a "time of troubles," a universal state, and a final collapse leading to a new genesis. Although he found the uniformity of the patterns, particularly of disintegration, sufficiently regular to reduce to graphs, and even though he formulated definite laws of development such as "challenge and response," Toynbee insisted that the cyclical pattern could, and should, be broken.

37 posted on 01/09/2017 3:55:09 PM PST by seowulf (Cogito cogito, ergo cogito sum. Cogito.---Ambrose Bierce)
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To: All

Perhaps this is a developing offshoot for all of those computer modelers that are now working on globul warming models.

They’ll need a job somewhere else for their doom-predicting skills soon...:^)


38 posted on 01/09/2017 3:57:43 PM PST by az_gila
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To: Roman_War_Criminal

So, just how much must our taxes be raised, and which of our freedoms need to be relinquished to protect us from this upcoming turmoil?


39 posted on 01/09/2017 3:59:23 PM PST by paint_your_wagon
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To: Roman_War_Criminal

Actually what we’re headed for is war. Civilization collapsing will depend on who wins the war. There’s a saying: War is easy and peace is hard.

When people forget the horrors of war and stop resolving differences through a rule based system then war becomes certain. How many long standing traditions, rules, and law have the left destroyed in the last 10 years? Even guys like Cruz where trying to overturn the primaries by stealing electors they didn’t win. Then the left tried to steal the election over and over again after Trump won and continues make up lies that could lead to war with Russia. That indicates a system that’s rapidly collapsing towards war.

This is a war we must win or the left or their Muslim allies will eliminate our entire civilization. We’re not at the point of open blood shed yet(Besides the people Hillary murders). Hopeful Trump will set things right, but I fear the left will become very violent when it’s clear that Trump’s polices are working. Be prepared and ready to fallow Trump’s marching orders.


40 posted on 01/09/2017 4:03:10 PM PST by RedWulf (Trump:Front Lines. Obama: Back Nine. Hillary:Nap T)
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