Why Obamacare Will NOT Be Repealed Anytime Soon

Self | 11/11/16 | fwdude

[fwdude]

Since the campaigns are over and electioneering can cease, let's take a realistic look as the lay of the land and understand what is likely to occur under Trump's administration and what is not likely.

Indeed, Obamacare repeal legislation has been floated numerous times by the Republican House over the past several years, only to find an unwilling Senate or Executive roadblock to kill all possibility. I contend that we are in a similar situation now.

A perilously bare "R" majority in the senate will be the death knell for any repeal for at least the next two years. Democrats will form a monolithic bloc of opposition to any repeal, and the remaining RINO's will insist on meaningless tweaking of the current law before they'll sign their names to any legislation, but won't go for an outright repeal. So, the senate remains a roadblock.

If I'm missing anything in this analysis, let me know. I'm just a realist who doesn't see a way forward, especially with the raw hatred of the left aimed straight at America.

[wku man]

Yep...to h*ll with big, sweeping omnibus resolutions. One provision at a time, at a rapid pace, and it's gone before the Commies even knew what hit 'em.

Scouts Out! Cavalry Ho! God Bless Texas!

[TBP]

2018 poses some interesting targets:

< img src="http://cdn.videos.rollcall.com/atr/2018DemMap-01.jpg.jpeg">

< img src="http://editions.lib.umn.edu/smartpolitics/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2015/12/2018ussenatefundraising2.png">

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Senate_elections,_2018

[TBP]

2018 poses some interesting targets:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Senate_elections,_2018

[Mr. K]

Not until January, at least...

[fwdude]

I hope you are correct, I really do, but it is YOU who do not understand the monolithic nature of the modern Democratic species. It is not the party of your grandfather, or even your father. It will commit suicide for its agenda, and take as much collateral damage with it as possible.

[Fiddlstix]

But McConnell won’t go for it. Trump is going to have to beat him up.

McConJob & Lyin RINO Ryan will learn "There's A New Sheriff In Town"!

[BRL]

Obamacare will be repealed by feb 1.

[mass55th]

I’m looking forward to listening to Trump’s “State of the Union” speech next year. I’m sure he’ll be glaringly honest, and tell it like it is. You know the Dems will boo him, but Sheila Jackson Lee will probably still be grabbing an aisle spot to pounce on him when he enters.

[Flavious_Maximus]

There are four hard core RINO’s in the Republican senate.

1. John McCain (AZ)
2. Lindsey Graham (SC)
3. Lisa Murkowski (AK)
4. Susan Collins (ME)

Two of them (Captain Queeg and The Cow) just got reelected to a six year term so they won’t care about primaries.

I can easily see all four of them fighting against
the Trump plans for immigration, healthcare and taxation.

This is why Trump will need to use the bully-pulpit to try to get some democrat senators in red states to go along with his agenda. It’s not going to be easy.

[fwdude]

Have you learned nothing about Trump? Holy cow.

Please, inform me.

So, he can act without Congress, like Obama?

[redfreedom]

I guess I’m tired of people saying this or that regarding Trump with regards to expectations.

Such as he will drop out before the Republican Convention.

Or he will drop out before the election.

Or he will not get elected.

And whatever.

He’s proven himself very well up until now, to include doing away with TPP and getting Canada & Mexico to want to renegotiate the NAFTA.

For crying out loud man, he’s not even in office yet.

He’s the first person to ever do pushback on this scale. He’s got the democrats in utter panic.

Just what is your problem?

[LostPassword]

Pelosi owns it. She’ll own it next year. She’ll own it next election. Single-payer and public options are off the table for at least 4 years even if Ds somehow take back congress in 2. Unless she sees another way out I don’t imagine she wants to keep owning it as it gets worse every year.

If Trump is the leader I hoped for with my vote he’ll make a deal with her and allow Obamacare to not be her legacy. The sooner she replaces it the better she looks. And I wouldn’t be surprised (or unhappy) if he lets her play a role in replacement. We need both parties behind the replacement or Ds will try to undermine it however they can.

[Buckeye McFrog]

Rumor is Trump has had a team working on proposals since June and will have something ready to roll in January.

[rdcbn]

I’m very skeptical that ObamaCare can be repealed fast enough have repeal occur before ObamaCare becomes insolvent and collapses completely

[fwdude]

Turtle-faced McCan'tle is still the sex-slave of the Party Establishment, which STILL hates Trump with a passion. Sure, there will be b^tt-kissing and power plays to get things they want, but the underlying hatred will still remain.

With all of the back stabbing that McTurtle has done over the past 8 years, ask yourself why he is STILL the senate leader. Do you think that will change with a Trump presidency?

[snarkpup]

All Trump has to do is issue an EO forbidding the IRS from taking action on penalties on those that refuse to buy the crap, and it will fully collapse of its own weight.

The problem that no one seems to know how to solve is that "must purchase" and "shall issue" are like the north and south poles of a magnet. The latter without the former will result in absurdities. Without the latter, we're back to individual insurance only being available on a limited, "cherry-picked" basis.

One possible somewhat free-market approach to this would be to allow those who do not want to purchase insurance to opt out—with the understanding that 1) they might not be permitted to opt in at any time in the future (like when they get old) and 2) if they end up needing medical care for any reason, they and their families will be completely on their own (no government assistance and providers are under no obligation to do anything if they can't pay).

[fwdude]

Good point. EO’s are the weak glue holding this monstrosity together.

[Scott from the Left Coast]

I am very well aware of that having been a Scoop Jackson Democrat in my youth.

But what you are missing is that this is now no longer the party of Barack Obama, Hillary Clinton, Harry Reid, Nancy Pelosi, Donna Brazille or Debby Wasserman-Schultz any longer either. They will be fighting within to create its new identity with new leadership. And there will be a bloodbath of different egos and ideas at work to create the next version of the leftist party.

[fruser1]

For laws to pass the senate, before they even vote on it there is a “cloture vote” to declare that the debate is over.

Based on senate rules, this vote requires a 60 majority instead of 50.

Budget reconciliations only require a 51 vote majority for cloture. A tie means the VP casts the deciding vote.

This way, they don’t tie up money going out the door w/the more stringent requirement. (It would be a lot harder to payoff their constituents otherwise).

Knowing that they’d never get 60, the dems put commie care in a budget bill, making a 50 vote requirement.

The “nuclear option” is where the senate rules committee changes the rules to make the cloture vote 50.

They originally made it 60 so that not every single statute from a prior administration would get repealed every time there was an opposing congress taking over.

McConnell has already sworn off the nuclear option and reconciliation path which is why Trump needs to beat him up.

Wiki has a reconciliation article. In a nutshell, it’s reconciling an already approved vote with minor changes when it’s sent back to the house. Dems slipped in major changes to enact commie care that way.

So say something passes the house, senate rejects it but agrees to have it modified (with greater than 50 but less than 60 votes). House passes this modified critter and poof we are now a communist country.

[NorthMountain]

The TFBfK is useless ... almost certainly.

I know it violates FR political correctness ... but Trump (or maybe Pence; they seem to be on speaking terms) really needs to sit down with Ted Cruz, Mike Lee, and Jeff Sessions, and conceive a plan to get the Senate moving in the right direction. They need to bypass Turtleface, McQueeg, et al.