Posted on 11/11/2016 9:25:12 AM PST by fwdude
Since the campaigns are over and electioneering can cease, let's take a realistic look as the lay of the land and understand what is likely to occur under Trump's administration and what is not likely.
Indeed, Obamacare repeal legislation has been floated numerous times by the Republican House over the past several years, only to find an unwilling Senate or Executive roadblock to kill all possibility. I contend that we are in a similar situation now.
A perilously bare "R" majority in the senate will be the death knell for any repeal for at least the next two years. Democrats will form a monolithic bloc of opposition to any repeal, and the remaining RINO's will insist on meaningless tweaking of the current law before they'll sign their names to any legislation, but won't go for an outright repeal. So, the senate remains a roadblock.
If I'm missing anything in this analysis, let me know. I'm just a realist who doesn't see a way forward, especially with the raw hatred of the left aimed straight at America.
Obviously, it will have to stay in place for 2017. But as of right now, I do not see it going beyond 12/31/17. :)
The insurance companies have time to come up with rates for 2018, starting today.
“Under President Trump, Repealing & Replacing Obamacare Will Be Harder Than It Looks”
Easy peasy. Nothing to it, but to do it!
I want a front-row seat (and can I help?)
Repeal of this is probably one of the simplest tasks he can get done... Dems know its a noose around their necks. Obama is gone not going to fall on their swords to protect it... It’s a failure and they know it.
They will put up some political theater to make it look like they are trying to stop it while behind the scenes will be cheering it’s death.
The Dems will no longer be in a blackmail position. Remember, Obama forced it on them. They know it’s a mess.
The execrable Joe Manchin, for example. 'Rat-fink Jim Justice got elected governor in WV by pretending to be some sort of 'conservative'. Munchkin knows on which side the bread is buttered.
If not, heads on a stick
Indeed - it's a tax so it'll be undone using reconciliation.
HA HA
Repubs are already on alert that defying Trump is defying the will of their constituents and it has real consequences.
Cancel the Unconstitutional Mandate Penalty and see what happens.
Yup. Even James Carville concedes it’s gone thru reconciliation.
They’ll be a few tweaks (pre existing issues, kiddie coverage till age 26). But it’s gone.
That's one precedent we follow at conservatives' own peril. Just because Ø acted like an unconstitutional president doesn't give others the right to do it.
“If I’m missing anything in this analysis, let me know”
As mentioned earlier in this thread, Obamacare and Harry Reid dodged a filibuster by passing the bill through budget reconciliation, a parliamentary maneuver which only requires a simple majority.
Trump now has that simple majority, so he will simply repeal Obamacare, root and branch.
Budget bills are mandated by the constitution to originate in the House but a lot of times an elite Democrat controlled senate will pass a bill that ‘suggests’ this and that, and the House and Senate meet together in smaller reconciliation sessions with representatives from both sides meeting to hammer out the “budget law” the House will vote on (formally now ‘originating’ it) and the Senate voting to approve.
A sleazy effing process IMO, and it is fraught with overdone tradition and contemporaneous ‘rule changing’ by despots in control of the Senate or House (and I mean DEMOCRATS when they control one part of Congress).
I remind everyone that NOT ONE REPUBLICAN VOTED FOR OBAMACARE.
Good point. A lot of Dems would likely prefer to get this behind them and (ahem...) Move On.
I disagree, other than a very few semi-independent thinkers. They will act as a solid bloc.
By Senate Rules, it only takes 51 votes to 'giterdone' using budget reconciliation, becasue that is how it was passed.
It will be around for awhile but not for the reasons most think.
There needs to be some transition between Obamacare to something else, so people don’t lose their insurance.
There has been no mention of if\what the “in-between” will be.
If there is no “in-between”, Obamacare will be with us a long while.
I think what he may have to do is a token repeal to let people know that the end of Obamacare is in the works and then spend the next year (or more) trying to figure out what & how they’ll do it.
I can just hear a Democrat say, “People won’t mind a 116% increase in their premiums.”
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