Posted on 09/30/2016 10:21:16 AM PDT by b4its2late
A series of quakes under the Salton Sea may be a signal that the San Andreas Fault is on the verge of buckling. For the next few days, the risk of a major earthquake along the fault is as high as 1 in 100. Which, holy crap.
The United States Geological Survey has been tracking a series of earthquakes near Bombay Beach, California. This “earthquake swarm” is happening under the Salton Sea, and over 140 events have been recorded since Monday September 26. The quakes range from 1.4 to 4.3 in magnitude, and are occurring at depths between 2.5 to 5.5 miles (4 to 9 km).
For seismologists, these quakes could represent some seriously bad news. The swarm is located near a set of cross-faults that are connected to the southernmost end of the San Andreas Fault. Troublingly, some of these cross-faults could be adding stress to the San Andreas Fault when they shift and grind deep underground. Given this region’s history of major earthquakes, it’s got some people a bit nervous.
Calculations show that from now until October 4, the chance of a magnitude 7 or greater earthquake happening along the Southern San Andreas Fault is as high as 1 in 100, and as low as 1 in 3,000. On the plus side, the likelihood of it happening decreases with each passing day. These estimates are based on models developed to assess the probabilities of earthquakes and aftershocks in California.
“Swarm-like activity in this region has occurred in the past, so this week’s activity, in and of itself, is not necessarily cause for alarm,” cautions the USGS.
That being said, this is only the third swarm that has been recorded in this area since sensors were installed in 1932, and it’s much worse than the ones recorded in 2001 and 2009. This particular stretch of the San Andreas Fault hasn’t ruptured since 1680, and given that big quakes in this area happen about once every 150 to 200 years, this fault line is considerably overdue. 'Double-Fault' Earthquake Could Devastate Southern California
A big fear is that the rupturing of the southern portion of the San Andreas fault could cause a domino effect along the entire stretch, cracking the fault from Imperial County through to Los Angeles County. Another possibility is that the Salton Sea swarm could cause the nearby San Jacinto fault system to rupture, which would in turn trigger the collapse of the San Andreas Fault.
Should the Big One hit, it won’t be pretty. Models predict a quake across the southern half of California with a magnitude around 7.8. Such a quake would cause an estimated 1,800 deaths, 50,000 injuries, and over $200 billion in damage.
But as the USGS researchers point out, this is far from an inevitability. The swarm under the Salton Sea may subside, or fail to influence the gigantic fault nearby. Moreover, the estimates provided by the scientists are exactly that—estimates. The science of earthquake prediction is still very much in its infancy, and these models are very likely crunching away with insufficient data. No need to panic just yet.
A series of quakes under the Salton Sea may be a signal that the San Andreas Fault is on the verge of buckling.
It’s over. We are all dead. It is just that we don’t know it, yet!
And has been for longer than I’ve been alive. NEXT!
Only 1800 dead in a major quake?? Is that a typo?
From what I’ve read, the Hayward Fault along the east side of the bay is of far more concern ... not just because it passes directly through the heavily populated East Bay area (Oakland; Fremont; Walnut Creek/Concord, etc.) which has only been developed significantly in the past 150 years or so, but also because significant segments of the fault have been “locked” for a great while! ... YIKES!
Are these the same “experts” who predict man-made global warming catastrophes?
Set-up a GoFundMe page, I’ll contribute :-)
“Calculations show that from now until October 4, the chance of a magnitude 7 or greater earthquake happening along the Southern San Andreas Fault is as high as 1 in 100, and as low as 1 in 3,000.”
California has been falling into the ocean for centuries yet it’s still here.
“Should the Big One hit, it won’t be pretty. Models predict a quake across the southern half of California with a magnitude around 7.8. Such a quake would cause an estimated 1,800 deaths, 50,000 injuries, and over $200 billion in damage.”
I was born in LA.
They’ve been saying this for the 6+ decades I’ve been here.
You know the SF Bay Area is one of the wealthiest areas of the country? Does the nation owe the people there anything other than emergency services should this event happen? You know the sympathy card will be played on behalf of everyone’s favorite city. If Trump is in office do you think he will have the balls to say go help yourself? California is deep blue. What did the Kenyan do for Texas when they had their fires and floods?
Calif. is just moving north to Oregon following many of its former residents....
Just spewed Diet Mountain Dew all over my monitor! Thanks for the belly laugh!
Hundreds of thousands of liberals would be prevented from voting on election day if the quake is timed right. Where’s the downside? < /sarc >
On average a big quake is way over due in this area. I just hope it happens after I am gone.
And the text in the article:
But as the USGS researchers point out, this is far from an inevitability. The swarm under the Salton Sea may subside, or fail to influence the gigantic fault nearby. Moreover, the estimates provided by the scientists are exactly that—estimates. The science of earthquake prediction is still very much in its infancy, and these models are very likely crunching away with insufficient data.
Flawed journalism, once again.
~ MM ~
We're overdue for an earthquake along the Hayward fault, which runs directly under heavily populated cities, particularly under schools, colleges and hospitals (unlike Loma Prieta centered in sparsely populated hills). There will be deaths and suffering, but the rebuilding will happen and the area will thrive. Disasters do not keep Americans down, politicians do.
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