People of Mexico, where have you gone?

Mexico National Statistics Institute ^ | 9/1/2016 | Self

[Riflema]

Here's an interesting quick, "back of the envelope" calculation of how many Mexicans have emigrated from their beloved homeland.

Their government does maintain statistical records of births, deaths and overall population, which even an English speaker such as myself can find and download (link above).

Take a look at this table of births & deaths:

Year	Birth	death	net	Calculated Popn
1990	2,735,312	422,803	2,312,509	81,249,645
1991	2,756,447	411,131	2,345,316	83,594,961
1992	2,797,397	409,814	2,387,583	85,982,544
1993	2,839,686	416,335	2,423,351	88,405,895
1994	2,904,389	419,074	2,485,315	90,891,210
1995	2,750,444	430,278	2,320,166	93,211,376
1996	2,707,718	436,321	2,271,397	95,482,773
1997	2,698,425	440,437	2,257,988	97,740,761
1998	2,668,429	444,665	2,223,764	99,964,525
1999	2,769,089	443,950	2,325,139	102,289,664
2000	2,798,339	437,667	2,360,672	104,650,336
2001	2,767,610	443,127	2,324,483	106,974,819
2002	2,699,084	459,687	2,239,397	109,214,216
2003	2,655,894	472,140	2,183,754	111,397,970
2004	2,625,056	473,417	2,151,639	113,549,609
2005	2,567,906	495,240	2,072,666	115,622,275
2006	2,505,939	494,471	2,011,468	117,633,743
2007	2,655,083	514,420	2,140,663	119,774,406
2008	2,636,110	539,530	2,096,580	121,870,986
2009	2,577,214	564,673	2,012,541	123,883,527
2010	2,643,908	592,018	2,051,890	125,935,417
2011	2,586,287	590,693	1,995,594	127,931,011
2012	2,498,880	602,354	1,896,526	129,827,537
2013	2,478,889	623,599	1,855,290	131,682,827
2014	2,463,420	633,641	1,829,779	133,512,606

Now compare with their overall population counts through 2010:

1990	81,249,645
1995	91,158,290
2000	97,483,412
2005	103,263,388
2010	112,336,538

So, looking at 2010, their should have been 125m Mexicans over there, but they only counted 112m. So 13m have gone AWOL. I wonder where they went? I assume they have not emigrated to the greener pastures of Nicaragua, Guatemala etc.

And this is for Mexico alone. If I had the time, I could try and do the same for the rest of Latin and South America (Brazil anyone?). But you get the point:

That oft-quoted number of 11 million "living in the shadows" is total bunk as we all suspected. I would hazard the real number is somewhere between 15 and 30

[Riflema]

I was sitting here wondering if anyone had bothered to run these numbers, so did it myself. Sometimes official statistics reveal things you'd rather left unspoken.

[Vigilanteman]

Sort of like those Philadelphia precinct totals from the 2012 presidential election . . . compare them with an election or two before and they are statistically impossible, but somehow they are still accepted as official.

[Hostage]

Great job! Excellent FR sleuthing.

Screen capture all you can in case this goes viral and the governments shut it all down to keep people like you from getting further with it.

[Roman_War_Criminal]

Where indeed?

[stylin19a]

Interesting - some things just don't make sense.
Let's assume all is true.

1990 shows no difference between calculated and actual.
Is that possible ?

I am also assuming that the missing are cumulative - the missing for 1995 are still missing today.
1995 had approx 2 million difference.
2005 had approx 12 million difference.
2010 had approx 12 million difference - is that possible ?

[LesbianThespianGymnasticMidget]

Awesome job. I would base it from 86 when the last blanket amnesty was granted. I would also run the numbers for the rest of Central America.

Once done I would send it to Trump. I suspect there are as many as 50 million illegals.

[Buckeye McFrog]

Where have you gone, folks of Mexico?
A nation turns it’s lonely eyes to you
Woo woo woo

What’s that you say, Mrs. Rodriguez?
Pedro has gone north with Old Jose
Hey hey hey?
Hey hey hey

[LesbianThespianGymnasticMidget]

It would be better based on 86, the date of the last blanket amnesty. That would truly be the no diff between calculated and actual basis.

[spintreebob]

The big bump occurred, not due to 86 amnesty, but due to Clinton Treas Sec Rubin destroying the Mexican economy (for their own good) in the 90s. Rubin forced the Maquiladoras to flee Mexico for Asia. Those unemployed then looked for jobs where they could find them... here. When the fled there were no longer customers for the retail sector... So the retail employees...and business owners also came here.

[ChiefJayStrongbow]

Those stats neglect the children born here to illegal parents. I don’t consider them to be citizens, either.

[stremba]

I would assume that you took 1990 as a base year and based your calculations off the assumption that the census population was the zero-illegal one. Given that, you may be underestimating the total as your calculation accounts only for illegals emigrating after 1990. Of course there are no reliable numbers for death rates of illegals in the US. Deaths would reduce the total number, while births would not increase the total since birthright citizenship makes those children born here US citizens, and hence not illegals (Just stating fact here, not expressing approval)

[Ben Ficklin]

The CIA Factbook has a lot of demographic data but it is data only from the current year or last year calculated.

The website Index Mundi started in 2000 and they accumulate data from the CIA Factbook.

Other good sources are the World Bank and the UN.

Another good source is Wikipedia. the problem there is how you search. You can use the Wikipedia search function or search Wikipedia using a Google search, such as: "Wikipedia Mexico immigration rate"

[Enterprise]

Where have all the Mexicans gone, long time passing?
Where have all the Mexicans gone, long time ago?
Where have all the Mexicans gone?
Fled to America everyone.
Oh, when will they ever return?
Oh, when will they ever return?

[Steven Scharf]

I don’t think the start date of your analysis matters to 1986 or 1990. I would want to run the data by someone who deals in Mexican demographics. I wonder how the entity that produced this data handles non documenteds leaving the country.

Interesting that Mexico has 2.5 million births compared to USA 3.9 million births. Also note that the # of births is declining like it is in the USA.

[PLMerite]

Quite a few years ago I remember reading that of all living Mexicans who were born in Mexico, one in seven were in the United States.

[Riflema]

Yep, I went with 1990 as the nearest year which the had numbers for. Given what happened in 86, I’d be shocked if a bunch of our neighbors didn’t jump the fence between 86 and 90, so, yes, I’m understating it.

[Riflema]

I heard a second rationale: NAFTA allowed our farm products to go there very much cheaper and made their small backward family farms unviable. Thus the peasants looked for other stuff to do.

[Riflema]

I just went with 1990 as the baseline as it was shortly after the amnesty and was the earliest data they had an overall population for. And yes, the birthrate was phenomenal.

[ckilmer]

clinton’s nafta also destroyed mexican farmer who couldn’t compete with US grain producers.

[spintreebob]

You’re right. But the Mexican land ownership system is so lousy that it is more to blame than NAFTA.

Also we send increased corn/wheat to Mexico. They send increased fresh fruit and vegetables to us.