Posted on 08/05/2016 4:43:43 PM PDT by murron
Most of the polls showing Hillary way in the lead are of Registered Voters. When Likely Voters are polled, the results are far different and show the race as being much closer.
How about those polls using ‘adults’ or worse simply ‘Americans’ - gaslighting.
Valid point.
It's hard not to get demoralized, and with all these polls and the media hammering Trump 24/7 on everything little thing it's hard to know which end is up...But I don't believe he's as far down as they are saying, I don't believe his campaign is in the kind of reeling disarray they say it's in, and I DO believe he can win in November. Jesus take the wheel.
The amazing thing to me is that the dead registered voters can be reached without use of a medium.
And many are oversampling Dems by a whopping 12 percent. To put that in perspective, the Gallup Party ID number is dead EVEN right now.
Even in the depth of the 2008 mess, when Bush was so unpopular, the Party Id gap was 8 or so.
There is no way on earth HRC is going to have a 12 percent advantage in party turnout. If memory serves, even with Obama Romney the gap was only 3 or so in 2012.
So the translation is, Trump is actually likely ahead, and possibly by a healthy margin...even WITH the Dem Convention and the so called “gaffes”.
Good point. Thanks.
The entire elite formed one gigantic choir this week, all singing at the top of their lungs “Trump must go!”
I think we can expect this any time there is a lull in international bad news. They have shown they will not hesitate to whomp up some kind of illusionary “incident” out of thin air and go wall-to-wall with it, trying to ram it down our throats.
When the whole hive goes after a conservative, it is something to see.
I would imagine they will try to arrange a similar “incident” for the week before the election. An October Surprise, leveraged to the hilt by the MSM.
Cherry picked democrat voters want Hillary. What a shock.
That story has already been debunked by the Trump campaign. Turns out it was all made up out of whole cloth by democrat operatives and the weasels in the MSM took the bait and ran with a complete hoax of a 'story'.
Trump's campaign is fine.
Hillary oh so needs a Ross Perot about now. She won’t win without someone else to split up the vote.
The polls also do not reflect the enthusiasm gap. Also the cross-over vote.
They only poll democrats so hillary is still slightly ahead even with the dnc fixing the race and the polls. In a real poll or in the real race she is actally behind. But if the say Trump is way ahead then they will not be able to fix the election.
The media is doing everything that it can to promote Hillary just like they did in 1980.
My favorite Freeper of all time wrote a post that I have never forgotten. The post below illustrates how corrupt the media was in 1980 and I think that we should remember that we shouldn’t trust polls.
In memory of Common Tator:
New Battleground Poll: 0bama 45%, McCain 42%
10/31/2008, 4:53:49 PM · 74 of 119
Common Tator to agrace
I was anchoring the election returns in 1980 on my radio stations. The stations were in Ohio and I went on the air at 6:35Pm following ABC news. The ABC report at 6:30 said the race was too close to call and it might be morning before we knew who would win.
An AP story that cleared the wire at 6:33PM said the race was very close. It concluded it might be many hours and returns from the west coast, whose polls would not close for 3 more hours, would have to be counted to determine the winner.
I went on the air at 6:35PM and went to our four reporters at the major boards of elections in our coverage area. It was mostly just to introduce them to the audience.
By 6:39PM I was telling my audience what that the election was very close and it might be morning before we knew who our next president was going to be.
My producer handed me a note at 6:39:30PM telling me to join the ABC network at 6:40Pm.. They were going live from Plains Georgia where Jimmy Carter was going to concede to Ronald Reagan.
I felt like and idiot with egg on my face. I later found out that Carter had informed the networks and AP that he was going to concede at 6:40Pm before the polls closed. Carter had been told the previous evening that he was going to lose. That was the same time Reagan’s pollsters told him there was no way he was not going to win. The media knew that too but did not print or air what they knew.
When the networks and AP were saying the election was too close they already know Reagan was going to win big time.
Later that year I talked to Pat Buchanan and he told me he was working at CBS. They had heard that both campaigns internal polls showed Reagan the big winner. Pat went to lunch early so he would be back at work when the first exit polls came in. When he came back he said it was like walking into a room where everyone’s mother had just died. That is when they learned the exit polls and the Carter and Reagan polls all agreed that Reagan was going to have an easy victory. That was at 12 noon on election day. But at 6:30 PM on election day they were still saying that it was a very close election. They knew that was a lie.
From that point on I have been very reluctant to believe anything the AP or the MSM prints or broadcasts.
I really miss Common Tator and his insight.
Real Clear Politics polling has the following as Toss Up States.
This is where the election will be won for Trump if in fact he is to win.
Toss Up (151)
Arizona (11)
Florida (29)
Georgia (16)
Iowa (6)
Michigan (16)
Missouri (10)
Nevada (6)
North Carolina (15)
Ohio (18)
Virginia (13)
Wisconsin (10)
Maine CD2 (1)
Electoral Map:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/2016_elections_electoral_college_map.html
My dad taught me a long long time ago that the only news they tell you is what they want you to hear. I have never forgotten that lesson from him.
A poll is made up of numbers and statistics are just a way to analyze those numbers. And from what I learned in that class, one can make those numbers say anything you want, depending on your viewpoint or agenda.
BTW, the title of the textbook for the class was "How To Lie With Statistics."
Jesus will take your personal wheel, but He expects us to have the appropriate offering for bus fare.
If one really wants Hillary to stay out of the WH, then one needs to actively support Trump by donating to his campaign and Donate to FR while they're at it.
I've been through a bad physical period and haven't attended my church in some months. I still send my offering with extra for our building fund because I want my church to thrive. I can't ask Jesus to take that wheel because it's my personal responsibility.
Backing Trump and FR financially is also our personal responsibility if we are actually who we claim to be....
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