How about those polls using ‘adults’ or worse simply ‘Americans’ - gaslighting.
Valid point.
It's hard not to get demoralized, and with all these polls and the media hammering Trump 24/7 on everything little thing it's hard to know which end is up...But I don't believe he's as far down as they are saying, I don't believe his campaign is in the kind of reeling disarray they say it's in, and I DO believe he can win in November. Jesus take the wheel.
The amazing thing to me is that the dead registered voters can be reached without use of a medium.
And many are oversampling Dems by a whopping 12 percent. To put that in perspective, the Gallup Party ID number is dead EVEN right now.
Even in the depth of the 2008 mess, when Bush was so unpopular, the Party Id gap was 8 or so.
There is no way on earth HRC is going to have a 12 percent advantage in party turnout. If memory serves, even with Obama Romney the gap was only 3 or so in 2012.
So the translation is, Trump is actually likely ahead, and possibly by a healthy margin...even WITH the Dem Convention and the so called “gaffes”.
Good point. Thanks.
The entire elite formed one gigantic choir this week, all singing at the top of their lungs “Trump must go!”
I think we can expect this any time there is a lull in international bad news. They have shown they will not hesitate to whomp up some kind of illusionary “incident” out of thin air and go wall-to-wall with it, trying to ram it down our throats.
When the whole hive goes after a conservative, it is something to see.
I would imagine they will try to arrange a similar “incident” for the week before the election. An October Surprise, leveraged to the hilt by the MSM.
Cherry picked democrat voters want Hillary. What a shock.
The polls also do not reflect the enthusiasm gap. Also the cross-over vote.
They only poll democrats so hillary is still slightly ahead even with the dnc fixing the race and the polls. In a real poll or in the real race she is actally behind. But if the say Trump is way ahead then they will not be able to fix the election.
Real Clear Politics polling has the following as Toss Up States.
This is where the election will be won for Trump if in fact he is to win.
Toss Up (151)
Arizona (11)
Florida (29)
Georgia (16)
Iowa (6)
Michigan (16)
Missouri (10)
Nevada (6)
North Carolina (15)
Ohio (18)
Virginia (13)
Wisconsin (10)
Maine CD2 (1)
Electoral Map:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/2016_elections_electoral_college_map.html
A poll is made up of numbers and statistics are just a way to analyze those numbers. And from what I learned in that class, one can make those numbers say anything you want, depending on your viewpoint or agenda.
BTW, the title of the textbook for the class was "How To Lie With Statistics."