Posted on 06/29/2016 10:05:44 AM PDT by orchestra
Hillary Clinton has a nearly 80 percent chance of winning the White House in November, FiveThirtyEight polling guru Nate Silver predicted Wednesday.
FiveThirtyEight projected Clinton has a 79 percent chance of winning the general election against Donald Trump, who has just a 20 percent chance of succeeding President Barack Obama in the Oval Office.
“Here’s how to think about it: We’re kind of at halftime of the election right now, and she’s taking a seven-point, maybe a 10-point lead into halftime,” Silver told ABC’s George Stephanopoulos on “Good Morning America.” “There’s a lot of football left to be played, but she’s ahead in almost every poll, every swing state, every national poll.”
(Excerpt) Read more at politico.com ...
I would like to see a state to state poll then we can see who will win electoral votes.
2%
And yet people still take this clown seriously?
He is pretty accurate. His past history of Win’s far outweighs his Losses. Actually, a pretty impressive history. I’d be throwing my money into gambling and keeping my mouth shut if I were him.
As you said though, no-one can get every poll correct.
OK, here is the real deal, I see a 50/50% chance that either Hillary or Trump will win. I’m being a lot more accurate than Silver’s crystal ball.
Thats what I was afraid of... and 79% is a HUGE number for so early out. I wonder what he is seeing...
Nate got a hold of some good weed, there.
Correctamundo. He went on Anderson Pooper last year and said Trump had only a 5% chance of winning the Republican nomination
Just more disinformation from Uniparty’s ministry of truth. Like Twitch McConnell, if you step in one of these guys, just scrape them off your shoe with a stick.
Sounds like a weather forecast and we know how accurate they are.
Actually he is good. I hope he is wrong.
Not I single poll of this race will matter one iota until Hillary and Trump debate.
The first polls taken after their last debate will tell the tale.
If Trump can convince people he is not the monster that will kill us all while skinning alive Mexicans and Muslims that the press has made him out to be the numbers will move BIG in his direction after those debates.
Wouldn’t halftime be when the conventions happen?
(Knowing Silver got North Catolina wrong in 2008, his 2016 forecast is meaningless.)
As I mentioned earlier, his overall history is pretty amazing. He may have gotten a state wrong. Does that explain away literally everything he’s nailed? He got all 50 states 100% correct in 2012.
That being said, this whole election is very fluid right now. As long as trump sticks to speeches and TelePrompTers, he tends to move in the right direction. Hitlery has stayed the course. Her only headway is when he makes outlandish statements that the media runs away with.
Nate Silver is applying a rule to Trump that hasn’t held up.
What he’s saying today about Trump is the same thing pundits and the polls said about KY GOP candidate Matt Bevin: they wrote him off, declared him finished and dismissed the prospect of his being elected governor of the Bluegrass State.
Yet that’s exactly what happened in November 2014. The guy nobody thought had a chance came out of nowhere to win.
It should behoove Silver to display humility.
After 2012, nothing surprises me. Never thought voters would reelect Obama. The electoral college is our thorn we have to overcome. Hillary winning would not shock me like 2012 did.
didn’t Silver predict that Trump WOULDN’T win the primaries and WOULDN’T be the nominee? I seem to remember that afterwards he admitted that he had a bias against Trump from the start, and that he let that influence his predictions.
Exactly!
The only way to combat this is to have HUGE numbers come out for Trump in the swing states. If Hillary wins, it will not be because it is the will of the people....it will be because of the left’s unsavory and strategic tactics.
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