Posted on 04/12/2016 5:30:16 PM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet
If Republicans nominate Donald Trump, they nearly cede the White House to Hillary Clinton. Trump wouldn't merely be an underdog in the general election. He would be the worst Republican nominee since Alf Landon 80 years ago.
The polls show Trump would be a disaster. To date, Trump's message control has been a disaster, and it would be a disaster in the general election. His political inexperience, which has hamstrung him in the primary cycle, would be a disaster in the fall.
All indications suggest a Trump versus Hillary battle would be a one-sided affair.
Poll problems
Donald Trump would be the most disliked major-party nominee in the history of favorability polling.
The only presidential candidate to beat him in unfavorability never got close to the nomination: Former Ku Klux Klan Grand Wizard David Duke, who had 69 percent unfavorable ratings in 1992 — and Duke was within the margin of error of Trump, who is currently at 67 percent unfavorable in a late-March ABC/Washington Post poll.
That means that for every American who has a favorable view of Donald Trump, more than two others have an unfavorable view. A majority of the country, 56 percent, have a "strongly unfavorable" view in that survey. Trump's 37 percentage-point net unfavorable rating makes Democratic front-runner Clinton, who is 6 percent underwater in favorability ratings, look more than likable enough.
A clear majority, 59 percent, do not find Clinton honest and trustworthy. That's much better than Trump, who is found dishonest or untrustworthy by 69 percent. Trump polls worse than Clinton on basically every question.
When asked if the candidate:
• "Understands the problems of people like you?" Clinton is in the negative, but still has a 13-point edge on Trump.
• "Has the right kind of experience to be president?" Clinton has a 40-point lead, 66-26, over Trump.
• "Has the personality and temperament it takes?" Clinton is 33 points stronger.
Trump would be the least-respected, least-liked major party nominee since polling began.
That's why Clinton leads Trump by double digits in most recent polls, with an average of 10.6 percent according to RealClearPolitics. She has led Trump in the RCP average for the entire campaign. That lead grew steadily throughout March, ever since Clinton and Trump became the clear front-runners for their party nominations.
Compare that to past elections. In the first half of April 2012, President Obama's lead over Mitt Romney hovered between 2.3-5.3 percent. Obama's largest lead in the RealClearPolitics average at any point in 2012 was 5.9 percent. Obama held a double-digit lead over Romney in only one poll after March 1, 2012.
Obama's largest lead over John McCain was eight points.
The problem isn't just Clinton's lead. It's Trump's apparent ceiling: His average in head-to-head national polls against Clinton has never climbed above 44 percent, and he's been hovering around 40 percent since Super Tuesday.
Electoral college
No Republican has ever won the White House without carrying Ohio, and Trump is looking bad in Ohio. Clinton beat Trump in all three Ohio polls conducted in March, by an average of six points.
Any review of the Electoral College looks ugly for Trump.
The website "270 to Win" looked at polling averages and found Clinton carrying 260 electoral votes to Trump's 115 votes, with 165 up for grabs. Clinton's vote total on the site doesn't include Minnesota, Iowa, Ohio or Florida, all states where Clinton has to be considered the favorite. If Clinton carried Minnesota, Ohio or Florida — any one of those — she would win.
Look at every other swing state. In New Hampshire, Trump trails in every poll this year, most recently by eight points. In Florida, Clinton leads by eight in the latest poll and 2.2 percent in the RealClearPolitics average. Clinton beat Trump in the only Iowa poll. Clinton beat Trump by 17 points in the only Virginia poll this year.
Trump says he can expand the electoral map and win in places Republicans haven't won in decades, such as Michigan and Pennsylvania. The polls don't concur.
Trump trails Clinton in Michigan by double digits in two polls conducted in late March. Every Michigan poll this year has shown Trump losing to Clinton significantly, and the margin grew after the Michigan GOP Primary, which Trump won.
Clinton led Trump in every Pennsylvania poll in March, most recently by 13 points. Trump hasn't cracked 40 percent in a single Pennsylvania survey this year.
Trump lacks the political skills
In some ways, Trump is a phenomenally effective politician. He couldn't have gotten to 45 percent nationally in a crowded field otherwise. He couldn't have won 20 states including New Hampshire, South Carolina and Florida otherwise.
But he appears to lack the political skills to win in a general election.
First, we should expect Trump to flop in the debates. Trump had success in GOP primaries, but there was a reason he called them off — refusing to participate in a post-Florida Fox News debate and ignoring Ted Cruz's calls for one-on-one debates. Trump thrived in crowded debates where all he had to do was rudely put down Jeb Bush or Marco Rubio and where he could get away with always changing the topic.
In the less-crowded debates after South Carolina, Trump looked worse. Rubio exposed Trump's utter shallowness on healthcare policy, and Trump found himself flailing in policy areas where he was way out of his depth. Recent interviews, in which television journalists Anderson Cooper, John Dickerson and Chris Matthews pressed Trump on abortion or nuclear proliferation, exposed his incompetence.
In a one-on-one debate against Clinton, Trump's lack of policy knowledge and critical thinking skills would be glaring.
There's also the boorishness problem.
Despite all the talk about equality and equity, and treating women the same as men, we don't really live that way. Men are still expected to treat women with more courtesy than men treat other men. Put another way: You can be a boorish bully toward men in ways you can't toward women.
Trump probably helped himself by interrupting, insulting and sneering at Bush and Rubio. It may have been deliberate on his part, but it's also his personality. When he behaves that way toward Clinton, he will accomplish the incredible: making Americans feel sympathetic toward her.
Rick Lazio and Obama both learned that the hard way. In 2000, as Clinton was campaigning against soft money, Lazio walked across the stage, handed her a pledge to forego soft money and prodded her to sign it. Clinton was as evasive and equivocating as always, but with him leaning over her, pointing his finger at a small mother in a pastel pants suit, Lazio looked like a bully.
In New Hampshire in 2008, as Clinton gave a cheesy answer on her likability, Obama interjected with an offhand joke. "You're likable enough, Hillary," he said, a bit tersely. He lost New Hampshire.
Americans expect men to treat women with courtesy. Clinton would find it the easiest thing in the world to tease out Trump's rudeness — if she even had to try.
The money problem
The three factors for judging a candidate's strength are: the polls, the candidate's political skills and campaign cash. If Trump is flailing in national polls, state polls and favorability polls, and if he's an unprepared boor, at least he can spend his billions, right?
Wrong. Trump would be steamrolled by Clinton's cash juggernaut, even worse than other Republican candidates would be.
Trump hasn't sworn off fundraising. His website and his ads all solicit donations. But he has barely raised any money — $10 million in contributions and $24 million in loans to himself as of the end of March.
Trump also has no experience raising campaign cash. He has alienated the two parts of the Republican Party that do have experience raising money: the establishment-K Street axis and the Tea Party groups. Many businesses already have expressed unwillingness to attach themselves to a Trump nomination.
And Trump probably can't close the gap with his own wealth. Clinton will spend more than a billion dollars in the general election. We don't know Trump's net worth exactly, but we do know the higher estimates all include the value of his name brand, which is not a liquid asset. His buildings, his golf courses and his casinos are not liquid assets, either. Trump probably doesn't have a spare billion in cash to spend.
He lacks the political skills, the likability, the public support and the fundraising ability to beat Hillary Clinton. That's why he won't even come close.
So basically, the county-by-county numbers show the Dems turned out in droves to vote for Cruz, and the Conservatives turned out for Trump.
Sweet!
We all have wondered for so long - decades - 'where does America really stand,' outside of all the media and political party nonsense, because there is no way to tell - they haven't had a clear choice of anything since Reagan. We are going to find out. Part of me is quite sure we're hosed, but a slightly larger part of me thinks the news will be good ... maybe not great, but encouraging.
This seems like evidence for the latter, and lends credence to theory that the so-over-the-top in terms of sheer numbers and hyperbole of all the negative stuff in the media about Trump - is just highly financed 'journalism'.
Trump will destroy Hillary!
The left and the establishment would not be so incredibly afraid of Trump if they didn’t think he was going to win.
If everyone in the leftist media knew Trump would loose, they would be pumping him up big time, but they are doing the opposite. This is just the latest tactic that everyone is jumping in on. The other guy can’t win so vote for our guy.
Trump has been grooming his persona for decades, at least in the NYC area. He was Howard Stern all the time pushing his misogynistic playboy persona, he used to show up all the time on local news shows. He used to be seen at all sorts of NY sports events and concerts. I met him at Shea stadium - he sat right in front of us. He's a nice guy.
But he knows how to sell his persona as a very rich playboy good guy - and he probably is. But that's not really what I'm looking for in a president. A hard partying, good bowling butcher might also be a great guy, every salty old fishing boat captain I've met have been great guys. My best friend since kindergarten is a NYC union guy who goes to a lot of country and blues shows with me - great guy. But none of them are what I want in a president. I want an ideological conservative with a plan to shrink the size and role of government in my life. I don't know if that's Cruz, but I know it ain't Trump.
“...The difference between them and Trump is that the rest (except Carson) spent serious time trying to polish their public persona, in EXACTLY THE SAME WAY THAT ACTORS PRACTICE THEIR LINES.”
______________
Many fine posts in this thread (including the one about Wisconsin) but this is among the best! I think you have nailed it. That’s why Trump so easily dispatched his challengers. Most were acting, reading talking points from a notebook they have read from in front of the mirror for months, or years.
Trump had no script. It totally flummoxed them all.
I still have this picture of Jeb looking imploringly at the moderators for help, with this panic stricken look on his face, when Trump actually attacked him as weak and low energy. This pampered guy had NEVER been spoken to like that in his life, and his reaction was sheer terror and disbelief. And he never went over 2%.
GA really hasn’t had anybody good since Lester G. Maddox, who called Jimmuh Carter “the most dishonest man I ever met.” And Zell Miller worked for Lester Maddox.
That is very spot on.
CGato
Cruz is disliked and mistrusted by all his associates almost without exception. (Google it). THERE HAS TO BE A REASON FOR THIS. Perhaps a few are jealous, but all the rest? Something is VERY wrong here.
He comes off as precisely what he is: an unattractive, slimy, lying,conniving, cheating Canadian LAWYER with no charisma whatsoever.
Just WHAT are Cruz’ qualification for POTUS??
He is a junior Senator with almost no experience or credentials at all.
WHAT HAS HE DONE AS A MERE JUNIOR SENATOR FROM TEXAS?? What has he done - except compile one of the worst attendance records and voting records in the Senate? (research his senate attendance and how he has voted)
Ted Cruz CANNOT win- against Hillary OR Bernie. They will make a laughing stock of him. THEY WILL DESTROY HIM!
How did he even get on the ballot? How did he arrive at his present status?
IT IS PLAIN TO SEE THAT HE HAS SOLD HIS SOUL TO THE ESTABLISHMENT IN HIS QUEST FOR wealth and POWER.
What about the Texans who elected the junior senator? They expected him to show in the senate and perform the duties that he promised to get elected- instead, he’s off running for POTUS while still on senate payroll!
Clearly, has sold out to the establishment.
On the other hand, we have Donald Trump- a brilliant businessman and CEO who has heard the angry voices of We The People; that we a fed up with the corruption in Washington, the Obama administration and of being ignored.
He is one of us.
HE HAS DECIDED TO STEP IN AND CHANGE THE DIRECTION OF THIS BELOVED COUNTRY WHICH IS ON THE BRINK OF DESTRUCTION-THANKS TO OBAMA AND HIS PUPPET MASTERS.
HE IS OUR VOICE.
As a brilliant business man and CEO, Donald knows how to run the country and will surround himself with equally brilliant advisors per his cabinet and others.
What has Cruz ever run- except his lying mouth?
WHAT has he EVER accomplished?? WHAT?
He is constantly bloviating about what a great ‘constitutional lawyer’ he is, making the usual GOPe promises that he has no intention of keeping because he has been bought and paid for by the establishment- and crucifying Donald.
OUR MUCH LONGED FOR REVOLUTION IS HERE.
We have, at last, a pit bull FIGHTER is is owned by no one, a fighter who will listen to us, a fighter who is not crippled by PC, but says what has long needed to be said, attacks those whom no one has had the guts to attack- and will not back down, a fighter who will clean up the corruption in our government caused by the Marxist/Muslim.
We have a fighter who understands the urgency to seal the border, stop illegal invaders who are bankrupting our country through welfare- and stop the colonization of America by the thousands upon thousands of dangerous unvetted ‘refugees’ that Obama has imported. (colonization by Muslims to eventually overthrow our constitution and make Sharia law the law of the land- just as the Koran commands them to do. Just as Obama planned from the beginning))
As for Donald not being able to defeat criminal Hillary (or Bernie, the avowed Socialist), that’s almost laughable.
Not crippled by PC, he knows all the dirt on criminal Hillary and Socialist Bernie.
BEING NON CRIPPLED BY PC, HE WILL BRUTALLY DESTROY THEM WITH NO MERCY. There is NO WAY he would let either defeat him.
Donald is our last hope to save our beloved America.
He is our last hope to build up our defenses which have purposefully been greatly diminished by Obama in preparation for eventual Muslim take over.
He will help our poor veterans who are dying of neglect.
He will seal the border and deport dangerous illegal aliens.
HE WILL REGAIN OUR ALLIES WHOM OBAMA HAS TURNED AGAINST US.
HE WILL MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN!
I was upset about the antics too. For a minute. We Conservatives DONT LOOK BACK.
We learn and move on! He has learned, gotten a much better team AND WILL get 1237!!
Things that are unfair have happened. Life’s unfair.
The difference between a dem and a conservative is we don’t hide in corners crying “poor me. life’s unfair.”
As the Godfather said “YOU CAN ACT LIKE A MAN!!”
That’s what we all need to do and GET THIS THING DONE!!
If he does not win outright before the convention, I PROMISE I am going to Cleveland, head injury issues or not.
Who’s with me!!!! I know it’s a lot easier for me because I don’t have children.
I would send this to more but don’t know how!
I was watching the Still Report on Youtube awhile back and he interviewed a person that had quit the Ted Cruz campaign. He was a campaign insider and what I bolded was almost exactly what he said of the people inside the campaign act like as well. It has made me wonder at times if a few of these Cruz supporters here are one in the same.
CGato
The other person said there was no comparisons so I gave him one. That doesn’t mean I think they are exactly the same or even close. As a kid, Ronald Reagan was one of my first political heroes back in the day so I do understand Reagan.
Trump has never been a politician. I do like a lot of what he stands for as a politician. I’ve read from his friends and people that worked for him that he is the real deal and will stand up for what he says.
If he does what he says he will do, that will be good for our country and for Constitutional conservatism going forward.
The monstrous mess this country is in is going to take much time to get it back on track but if Trump is successful it will be a good start.
CGato
Yep, since they haven't been able to ruin Trump's appeal to the voters in the primaries, they've adopted the he can't win in November meme almost as a last resort. It's about all they've got left to use.
I Remember clearly the media saying the same things about Ronald Reagan that they are saying about Trump, that he was stupid, didn’t know anything, was just a TV/Movie personality.
So you don’t know, and instead just resort to a personal attack. It’s a legitimate question, Trump supporters claim he owes no one because he’s self funded, he won’t be able to do that in the general election. He will need over a billion dollars. If he doesn’t get money from the special interests, do you think he can raise over a billion dollars in just 3 months from small donors?
I rember all the arguments the media used against Regan. The arguments are similar to the ones used against Trump. That said, Trump is no Regan. And so far Trump’s debate performance has been pretty bad. The thought of a one on one debate Trump vs Someone that has studied the issues, i don’t think Trump would do well at all. Of course Trump could be sandbagging. I like to think that but I don’t really believe it. Even So... I disagree with the article. Trump can win if nominated.
Yes, and that propaganda tool of theirs is becoming less and less convincing: Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton in statistical dead heat in NBC poll showing close Nov. match-up
So much for that argument. Not that such polls are useful as anything other than propaganda, but at least it's honest to admit that. The failing and flailing GOPe/Cruz fanboy crowd likes to cite such polls like they're the gospel truth, believe it or not!
What will the next hysterically empty argument be for the Trump-haters? They're running kind of low on quality articles, but at least they're making up for it with the sheer quantity of GOPe spam that they're posting...
If Donald Trump ends up needing donors, he'll get donors. It's that simple. There will be no dearth.
BTW, opining that a question is silly somehow constitutes a "personal attack"?
9.26 million a day, from small donors?. And yeah I took your opinion as a personal attack, because I asked the question in good faith, and you decided to try and belittle me instead of what you just posted.
Seriously, though, between his own resources and asking for money from the public, if necessary, I'm pretty sure Trump can do whatever he needs to in the way of funding.
And he'd still be able to avoid being bought out by big money donors who insist on influence and access in exchange for their support.
I certainly hope that Donald Trump doesn't underestimate what it will take to run a competitive and ultimately successful general election race. Trying to run a Presidential general election campaign "on the cheap" would be a bad idea...
Well, how about a pragmatic conservative with a plan to shrink the size and role of government in your life?
Methinks thou doth protest too much if you think that Donald Trump won't try to shrink the size and role of government. Donald Trump certainly knows that's necessary in the regulatory/business world in most cases, and the same should be true for individuals: maximum options and empowerment.
Thank you, but to raise 9 million a day for 108 days would require an operation you don’t just put in place on day 1 of the general campaign. Mr. Trump has been running his campaign without investing in infrastructure. Questions to ponder.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.