Oh great ... now you messed up the computer!
Posted on 04/01/2016 10:00:49 AM PDT by PJ-Comix
Okay, we know that Ted Cruz needs to win 84% of the remaining delegates to reach the magic 1237 to win the nomination. Since that won't be happening, his ONLY hope is to win after the first ballot at an open (brokered) convention. For him to win you need to believe that the GOPe would be cool with a Cruz nomination.
Sooooo... On a scale of 1 to 10 with 1 being a complete impossibility of a Cruz nomination and 10 being an absolute certainty that Cruz will be nominated, numerically rate Cruz's chances of a nomination after the first ballot at the GOP convention this summer.
-1
I think it is a weak argument. Article basically boils down to ‘Trump won by 10, so the delegation wont contest’
But Trump’s recent polling has fallen, so all it would take is a couple of new polls in SC to give the delegation cover.
Does not matter who wins between Cruz and Trump.
Much more important for them to have unity against hillary.
4
Way underestimating Cruz’s support.
Trump needs grounding in policy from Cruz, like the triad and yesterday’s debacle showed.
I only like to Cruz winning in so far as it forces a rapprochement with Trump.
The Tennessee Republicans are more realistic than the candidates about what needs to happen at the convention.
Gaining votes from 700 to 800 won’t help old Teddy.
Rubio delegates too.
The total will keep mounting. Cruz can also get close 1000 with CA now in the mix.
1, and any other answer displays a hefty amount of ignorance.
Cruz is being manipulated by the GOP-e so they can put Paul Ryan or some other hack for the nomination. Why would they nominate a loose cannon like Cruz when reliable toadies like Ryan are available?
Until Trump woke up to the fact that "winning" isn't everything, and you have to work delegates, I would have said Trump's chances were about 3. With ex-President Yanukovych's top adviser, Manafort, joining the Trump team, I'll rate him around the same level of 5 to 6, even though he's starting so late in the game.
The big question is what have Rubio, Kasich and the GOPe been doing behind the scenes in terms of "wooing" delegates?
I’ll rate it a 0.1 From a mathematical standpoint, anything that technically can happen should never be given a 0% chance of success.
Cruz will be the cause of a brokered convention.
But he has 0 chance of getting the nomination.
If the GOPe’s give him the nomination, he will lose.
10
I agree a 7. Many of the delegates are more conservative than the GOPe. I believe Cruz has a better chance to get the nomination than Trump. Bush,Mitt, and other GOPe endorsements indicate such.
So, one of Trump's delegates in my area is the county mayor. Do you think for one minute that if Trump doesnt get it in the first round that the GOPe won't go to him and say, "We really like you and want you to have a bright future in the party but to get our future support you will need to give our guy your vote"?
You are underestimating the party. They can threaten jobs, future support, being blackballed from the party, as well as bribes and promises of all kinds of goodies.
Ted's chances are zero.
as of today, zero.
It is not just the delegate maneuvering ala 100years ago.
conventions are televised, live streamed, twittered, we have live streaming.
IF cruz gets the 88%+ he needs of the remaining delegates vs Trump’s 52%+ needed, it can be revisited.
The court of public opinion would seek revenge and revenge most ugly.
9
If Trump is short delegates there is a 90% chance Cruz wins on the 2nd or 3rd ballot as delegates become unbound.
0 (zero).
-1
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