Trump, Fox News, and Megyn Kelly Explained

Scott Adams Bllog ^ | January 26th, 2016 | Scott Adams

[ground_fog]

Donald Trump says he won’t appear at the upcoming debate on FOX if Megyn Kelly is a moderator, and as of this writing, it appears she will be. Some of you asked me how this move by Trump could possibly be a smart thing.

On the 2D playing field, Trump appears petulant and whiney. Maybe narcissistic, fascist, and a little bit of Hitler too. And as FOX cleverly pointed out, negotiating with foreign leaders won’t be easier than Megyn Kelly’s questions.

So Trump loses badly in the second dimension.

Let’s shift to the third dimension and see if the view is different. For starters, tell me what you learned about all the other candidates today.

Nothing?

Trump sucked the oxygen out of the room. Again. And the issue – as always – is something we can jabber about forever. It is jabber-ready by design, so the media and the public will have no time and no brain cycles left to consider his competition.

Admit it – you already think the competition on the Republican side has narrowed to Trump versus Trump. If he stumbles, he loses. If he doesn’t, he wins. But the other candidates and all of their money will not change anything. The presidency is 100% in Trump’s hands to win or lose.

And he hasn’t stumbled (in the 3rd dimension of persuasion) in six months of continuous media attention.

Now keep in mind that one of Trump’s signature moves involves creating situations in which he has two or more paths to win, and no paths to lose. He wins AT THE START by picking his battles.

For example, when Trump warned Iran to return the American prisoners, he won no matter what happened. If Iran released the prisoners, Trump would say he influenced it. They did, and he did. If Iran had delayed, Trump would have used it as yet another reason you need a tough guy to deal with them. He had two paths to winning and no path to losing.

And it is intentional. I have a similar (but far worse) skill set, and I would have made that play as well.

So let’s game out the FOX scenario and see how many ways he can win and how many ways he can lose.

If FOX doesn’t budge, and Trump skips the debate, he will tweet the entire mess like it is Mystery Science Theater 3000.

The next day, the news will interject his tweets with their commentary about each participant. Obviously Trump’s tweets would include his usual eyebrow-raising insults and claims, and draw all attention his way. And unlike the people in the debate, he can “twitter-interrupt” them at any point with his counter-punches and clever insults. The media will insert his tweets in just the right place to make their stories compelling.

Interestingly, FOX might have good ratings in that scenario because people would be watching the combined debate plus The Trump Twitter Show to get it all synced up in real time. And people would want to see how FOX handles the lack of Trump. Empty podium?

At about halftime of the debate you might see Trump say it is too boring to watch and sign off for the night. That gives you a data point to see if viewership drops off around then. And it probably would, no matter what he tweets, simply because the novelty of him NOT being there will wear off. Then all you have is a real debate about the real issues. No one wants that. We have better things to do.

Now suppose Trump changes his mind and decides to join the debate even while Megyn Kelly remains. One of two things can happen. Either she asks questions that sound biased, and Trump rips her and FOX News apart on live television – and his poll number go up, or she asks only softball questions and Trump appears to have won that way.

You might be thinking that the real world is messier than that, and Trump is inviting a big risk. For example, Megyn Kelly might get in a zinger. But Trump dodges those with ease. Maybe the public will start siding with a biased TV host, but that seems unlikely. The media is unpopular in general.

Or perhaps a FOX competitor will offer Trump a show of his own for two hours, at the same time, just to be dicks to FOX. Anything can happen, but all paths seem to favor Trump.

Now let’s say you are Donald Trump, the scariest Republican that any Democrat has seen in ages. What is the one best thing he can do to separate himself from the Republican machine and show that he can be a deal-maker for everyone? Answer: Punch FOX News in the mouth. Right in front of you.

Democrats are watching. Trump is framing himself as an enemy of their enemy. (Democrats hate FOX News.)

Trump’s setup here is pure genius. He doesn’t know how it will end, but he is making sure he goes where the odds are deeply in his favor.

That’s a system, not a goal. Once you see the world that way, it makes a lot more sense. Coincidentally, I wrote a book on systems being better than goals.

—

People keep asking me to demonstrate my lack of bias by pointing out some of Trump’s mistakes. The problem is that Trump has a skill set that absorbs mistakes and turns them into whatever he wants them to be. That’s his system.

[Albion Wilde]

What a great noise for America if The Donald was the VP

There is no chance of that happening.

[Albion Wilde]

this tarnishes his image with the undecided voters; that he is a strong manager-negotiator.

And that's exactly what he just did. He is not allowing Fox to make a fool of him. He controls the ratings, not Fox. Why should he help them, when he can do other things like this veteran's benefit? They need him more than he needs them.

[Vision Thing]

Tweet? 99.99% of his followers on Twitter are his voters anyway, while 100 -200 zingers will go un-rebutted at the debate. Works for me. :)

With only a cruz-sized audience watching, it will hardly benefit Fox news or the candidates on stage.

[Albion Wilde]

It's the opposite of Obamba's, "You can have anything you want, but that's my final offer."

You are on fire tonight!

[sparklite2]

;)

[Company Man]

Proudly Fox free since Snarkapalooza I --Aug 6, 2015

[Company Man]

Where are these undecided voters of which you speak?

[WVKayaker]

I just posted this on another thread, but it bears repeating...

this tarnishes his image with the undecided voters; that he is a strong manager-negotiator.

**** He is unfit to be commander in chief.

Hahahahahahahaaaaa! It is so much fun to see the wailing and gnashing of teeth from the Cruzers. The military will love him even more when he takes all the PC and BS from their roles!

From the official DJT bio...

***https://www.donaldjtrump.com/about/

Mr. Trump has long been a devoted supporter of veteran causes. In 1995, the fiftieth anniversary of World War II, only 100 spectators watched New York City's Veteran Day Parade. It was an insult to all veterans. Approached by Mayor Rudy Giuliani and the chief of New York City's FBI office, Mr. Trump agreed to lead as Grand Marshall a second parade later that year. Mr. Trump made a $1 million matching donation to finance the Nation's Day Parade. On Saturday, November 11th, over 1.4 million watched as Mr. Trump marched down Fifth Avenue with more than 25,000 veterans, some dressed in their vintage uniforms. A month later, Mr. Trump was honored in the Pentagon during a lunch with the Secretary of Defense and the entire Joint Chiefs of Staff.

[V K Lee]

LOL - I might give up 10 minutes to see a bit of that broadcast. Otherwise Fox time will be just like every other night of the week. They are no longer watched - nor missed. Anything regarding our next President - TRiUMPh

Is easily found on you tube where I am able to view at any time.

[ifinnegan]

Well, I guess I am dumb.

I did assume it was real.

My wife’s hair is fairly long, and real.

I did figure out Miichelle Obama’s hair is not real.

[Stentor]

Not a surprise that I respect your opinion. I’ll try not to react as sharply.

[dforest]

A smart person doesn’t walk willingly into what he knows is an ambush.

[Teacher317]

A smart person doesn't walk willingly into what he knows is an ambush.

Then there would never be a GOP debate, interview, or public appearance.

[nickcarraway]

That is for gulf countries in Arabic. Iranians are not Arab and they speak Farsi. Some article does not mean leaders know or care about it.

[RedHeeler]

Iran has no arab population and only speaks Farsi?

Yes, and there are no homsexuals there, either.

Have you worked for the US State Dept.? Ever?

[nickcarraway]

I didn’t say there are no air up there but you might be interested to know that a lot of Persians hate Arabs intrusion. This discussion was about the leaders of Iran and they certainly aren’t Arab.

[RedHeeler]

Thanks, nick.

I must be a silly bastard.

[nickcarraway]

Remember when National Geographic and everyone started calling the Persian Gulf the Arab Gulf? Persians were not amused.

[wardaddy]

I haven’t used a PC in years

Prefer Droid but on iPhone 6+

Late in bed old lady snoring

Me gleaning FR and Breitbart

Usual

[wardaddy]

Pleasing to see we’re on same side Jeff

Hope this war here helps Alexa ratings and freepathons