Doomed Russian Spacecraft Is Falling From Space, But Where Will It Fall?

Space.com ^ | Leonard David,

[BenLurkin]

Round and round it goes, but exactly where a failed Russian space cargo ship will fall to Earth on this week is a guessing game.

On April 28, Russia's uncrewed Progress 59 supply ship streaked into orbit atop a Soyuz launcher, intended to dock with the International Space Station. But shortly after liftoff ... Russian mission control team could not command the cargo vessel packed with nearly 3 tons of supplies.

Current forecasts predict that the Progress should fall to Earth in an uncontrolled, destructive nose-dive on Thursday (May 8) between 3:11 a.m. and 5:26 a.m. EDT (0711-0826 GMT). Some media reports from Russia are citing a Friday re-entry target. A more refined re-entry date and time will become available, according to experts tracking the spacecraft

...

There is the potential for pieces of Progress 59 to survive the fiery plunge through Earth's atmosphere and reach the surface, Krag said.

"With every re-entry of a large structure from space you can expect a small fraction to survive," Krag said. But there is an extremely small probability, he said, that somebody would be injured from the fall. "That's because the number of objects that survive is small … and the area over which they are distributed is so huge and mostly unpopulated," Krag said. Also, the large fuel load onboard Progress should burn up before it reaches Earth, he said.

Bill Ailor, a Distinguished Engineer and a re-entry and space debris expert at The Aerospace Corporation in El Segundo, California, agrees with Krag's view.

Ailor said that the rule of thumb for re-entering spacecraft is that anywhere from 10 percent to 40 percent of the dry mass of the vehicle — the mass without propellants, liquids, and stored gas — will survive and impact the Earth's surface.

[5th MEB]

That’s why I am hoping it falls here.

[hoagy62]

It sure did. One of the oxygen tanks even made an appearance at the Miss World pageant.

There was a business started by a couple guys in Spokane right about the time Skylab was supposed to come down. They called it “The Official US Government Skylab Target”. They sold posters and t-shirts, and they also painted a huge “official target” on the side of the building. They sold the t-shirts and posters as “protection” against getting hit by any falling debris.

Why? The official line was that if it was an ‘official government target’, and since the government at the time couldn’t do ANYTHING right (Carter Admin.), there was no possible way for you to be hit by any falling pieces of Skylab...if you were ‘protected’ by their ‘official target’, that is.

I bought a poster ($2) and took it to my aunt and uncle’s place in Maine when I stayed there that summer. I put it on the outside of the building I slept in. I guess it worked... 2 of the last few orbits took it almost directly overhead where I was, and I did not get hit.

[Windflier]

Aaaacccckkk! I meant to say 116 miles altitude, not 11.

It's now at 106 miles altitude. This baby's coming down fast.

[Windflier]

Speed holding steady at 4.68 miles per second.
Descending at roughly 20 miles per hour.
Current altitude 98 miles.
Crossing through north-eastern China now on what appears to be a south-westerly track.

[Windflier]

Make that a south-easterly track. Sorry. Way past my bedtime, but this is just too fascinating.

[McGruff]

where a failed Russian space cargo ship will fall to Earth on this week is a guessing game.

According to an unnamed military source, Ukraine is the target.

[McGruff]

CAPE CANAVERAL, Fla. (Reuters) - An unmanned Russian spacecraft on a failed resupply run to the International Space Station is heading back toward Earth faster than original predictions, with a fiery demise in the atmosphere expected early on Friday, U.S. Air Force tracking data shows.

So you can go back to your normal live now.

[Steven Scharf]

Reentry time Prediction has been updated

The following reentry predictions are issued as of 7 May 2015:

Prediction date/time
08 May 2015 01:08 UTC +/- 2 hours Aerospace (Atlantic Ocean off the southern tip of Africa)
08 May 2015 01:47 UTC +/- 5 hours USSTRATCOM (Pacific Ocean off of Japan)
08 May 2015 02:03 UTC +/- 1.9 hours Ted Molczan (Pacific Ocean pretty much dead center on the Eqautor)

These times relate to 9 pm to 10 pm EST tonight. With the plus or minus 2 hours between 7 pm and midnight EST.

[Steven Scharf]

I was about to report that the satelite appeared to have gone up to 249 miles, but then I saw this.

PROGRESS-M 27M is reportedly decayed according to USSTRATCOM.
The spacecraft reentry occurred around 08 May 2015 02:20 UTC over Pacific Ocean.

It has apparently come down in the South Pacific.

[Windflier]

PROGRESS-M 27M is reportedly decayed according to USSTRATCOM. The spacecraft reentry occurred around 08 May 2015 02:20 UTC over Pacific Ocean.

That's strange. I'm watching the live tracking online at http://www.n2yo.com/?s=40619 and it's still showing the Progress craft in orbit.

According to the site, the craft is projected to come down off the east coast of England sometime around 8:00AM GMT.

[Windflier]

Sorry Steven. I goofed. Your report is correct.

[Jet Jaguar]

I still see it passing Argentina.

[Jet Jaguar]

Disregard. That was the ISS.

[Windflier]

Disregard. That was the ISS.

Yep. I made the same mistake.

[GizzyGirl]

Ping for update later