Where is this economic collapse so many are saying will happen?

[eekitsagreek]

If you go to different websites or listen to certain radio hosts, there is a lot of discussion of "economic collapse", "dollar collapse" or "petrodollar collapse" and so forth. They make it sound like we will end up like the Weimar Republic with people carrying their worthless money in wheelbarrows.

I am not an economics expert (nor do I play one online), but are we really heading for collapse or is it all a bunch of talk? I know we have a huge debt problem, but we keep printing money. How long can this keep going? I am confused!

Any insights from those knowledgeable in economics or finance is appreciated.

[SaxxonWoods]

The collapse has been happening for about 7 years and has about 10 years to go. It will not respond much to the machinations of man, only time can help.

So far it’s been fairly mild compared to the possibilities. We probably have a rougher period in our future before things start to get much better, around 2022-2025.

[Rockingham]

Warnings of economic collapse are rooted in fear rather than in facts and reasoned analysis. Contrary to what many suppose, the Federal Reserve System and US Treasury have done a fairly good job of stabilizing the economy and preventing a severe downturn like the Great Depression.

Indeed, due to fracking and the weaknesses of other economies, the US dollar is likely to remain surprisingly strong for years to come. In addition, several innovations offer the prospect of cheap power through small hot fusion energy, with cold fusion devices also under development. If such devices are developed and widely deployed, the resulting wave of cheap energy would generate new wealth across the globe while diminishing the capacity of Russia and Mid East oil producers to make trouble.

[Arthur McGowan]

Trouble is, all God cares about is our souls. God does not promise to save us from economic collapse, Ebola, Obola, tens of millions of pro-abortion illegal voters, starvation, persecution, genocide, ISIS, etc.

[Texicanus]

Thank you for the excellent synopsis.

I would agree our economy is sinking, only not as fast as other economies. Therefore what looks like an improvement is only relative for the time being. Compared to other economies of the world, we may still look fairly good due to new technologies such as fracking. But, we are headed for a disastrous outcome if we don’t get some adults in charge and dump the socialists. Then we can end the current taxation, welfare, and immigration policies that are abetting our declining economy.

If anyone thinks the economy is improving and waiting for their ship to come in, it may never arrive. Or, if it does, it may be loaded with immigrants from other countries with failed economies willing to take our jobs, vote democratic, and bleed the beast until the last taxpayer retires.

Wake up America and vote for REAL change while we still can, otherwise it may be too late in the near future.

[arderkrag]

It’s fearmongering. If they predict it every year (and they have!) It will eventually be right. Broken clock syndrome.

[outofsalt]

Excellent summation! Would like to hear your scenarios for escaping this mess. (My only thought is to sell government lands to the Chinese or Arabs.)

[Popman]

We are already in a collapse....it is a slow motion one....

The pillars of our culture, society are rotting from within...

We will collapse and not even know it until the very end....

Rarely do city states collapse into one giant heap....in a short period of time, that happens when natural disaster hit them..

We are simply flushing ourselves down the drain a drop at a time....

[ballplayer]

As soon as the Fed stops with the zero interest rates,stops printing Billions of dollars of funny money every month,then look out,you will notice

[RegulatorCountry]

Absent QE, it’s clear that the stock market will take a serious hit, fear over it ending had more to do with the wild gyrations last week than anything. Purchases requiring credit will grind to a halt as they did in 2009-2010 and jobs dependent upon those industries will start cutting back deeply again.

I’m not even entirely sure that the likely rate increases will benefit savers. Banks have gotten accustomed to giving crappy rates of return and it will lag. They’ll be battening down the hatches for more defaults on mortgages, since higher rates will mean fewer buyers able to qualify, with falling prices and much longer DOM leading to foreclosures taking off again.

They’re stuck with QE. It’ll continue until they’re forced to stop, and when it stops it’ll get ugly again quickly. They’ve just been staving off the inevitable, imho. Are people better set to deal with it now than they were in 2008? Those who were able to cut or eliminate debt with a secure income are, but such people are in the distinct minority. Most are worse off now than they were then.

[Macoozie]

Popman above is so right. We are in the collapse right now. 20% unemployment 100 million not working 50 million on food stamps.

There will be no soup lines. We have EBT.
If the QE stops, all hell will break loose.
Go to any geographic area where Gub'mint and Gub'mint funded union members live. Things look rather rosey.

Go to other places, except fracking zones and a few high tech spots, and you will witness the slow collapse of a civilization.

[SamAdams76]

Nut jobs have been yapping about the coming “collapse” since I was a little boy.

[RegulatorCountry]

Nut jobs have been yapping about the coming “collapse” since I was a little boy.

Yes, they have. They're much closer to being right at present than they've ever been, though. Some pockets of the country never really felt anything from the financial crisis, and others appear to have recovered nicely with new construction and official unemployment numbers equal to or better than before the crash. But, most of the country is still pretty tenuous. It won't take much to put it right back into near-depression or worse. This will put a serious drag on even the bright spots. Recall that not all of the country was in dire straits even in the depths of the Great Depression. Some fared far better than others. That's the case now as well. I suspect you're in one of the areas that are faring better, otherwise this wouldn't appear quite so nutty to you.

[palmer]

The collapse is ongoing:

Women caught up quickly under Reagan and men also did well. Under Clinton we had a bubble economy. It appeared ok due to the dot com boom and related stock market bubble. But women were now forced to enter the workforce instead of volunteering for it. The economy deteriorated under Bush with the housing bubble and growth of government. You can't sustain an economy on remodelling kitchens in overpriced houses. Under Obama we have collapsed. Under Obola we will complete the collapse. The market will still be propped up, so don't look at that. Look at the graph above.

[palmer]

Sam Adams is in Mass which has a lot of government contracts, a robust medical sector and higher education money flowing in.

[Gaffer]

I think the biggest thing keeping the economy afloat is the performance of the stock market, frankly. And, I think that it is more of a national confidence factor that keeps the belief of solvency afloat, really.

To me, the BLS unemployment numbers and a number of indicators related to it and other government derived numbers don’t give the whole picture. I mean specifically, they are unduly influenced. I shop nearly every day at the grocery store to get supplies at the best prices I can find (1 mile away). I know what prices are and they are always going up. But this isn’t reflected in any government numbers I see.

My biggest concern is the big QE - quantitative easing. For nearly SIX years, the Federal Reserve has been creating e-money to buy up T bills and NYSE mortgaged backed securities at a rate of $85 billion per month for the first 5 years and then down to $75 billion each month starting last year. Air money, scrip, nothing behind it. Pure out and out printing money, in effect. And the stock market is supremely happy because of it. Likewise, it seems that the Fed also has functionally legitimized some of the T-Bill debt we are issuing - one credit card paying off another.

One trillion dollars of additional debt each year we cannot afford, one trillion dollars a year that is either not shown on Fed Reserve accounting statements (either that or they are crediting the T-Bills and MBSs as assets - for which they didn’t even have the real money to purchase). We can’t really know because Fed Reserve is not independently audited. I digress, but rightly I think.

In answer to your question I don’t believe a significant downturn will come until the Fed stops the QE, and then I think there’s going to be some dicey times, myself.

[RegulatorCountry]

Obamacare has crimped hiring in medical down here, with some employers cutting back. Medical is not quite the employment safe haven that it’s been.

[palmer]

Pure out and out printing money, in effect. And the stock market is supremely happy because of it.

Politicians are happy too because they get to spend those printed dollars. There are just two reasons we don't have significant (i.e. 70's style) inflation. First the economy is in the crapper, worse than under Carter now after 6 years of Obama (see graph above). Second, the money is doled out for Obamaphones, smokes and lottery tickets. None of those things inflate much, cigarettes are still cheap to produce.

Serious inflation will kick in when the world economy recovers and the foodstuffs from our farms are all shipped to China.

[Palio di Siena]

In my very humble opinion, the crash started when we left the gold standard in the 60’s. We’ve had fiat currency since then. When government is able to print currency at will and go on unchecked with (literally) no budget, I say the crash is in process.
You can’t go by me, I’m no economist, but I think the first step is establish a limit based on something (oil reserves plus gold plus x?), who knows.
As we stand, the regime du jour is able to print money and benefit those that keep them in power.
I don’t think it will be a precipitous thing, it’s happening now.

[Roman_War_Criminal]

9/13/2015 (but could be before)

7 year economic crash cycle...2008, 2001, 1994 (not so much), 1987.....

I think this year is considered a Sabbath Year. These are always related to famine/economic depression. There are actually a lot of fund managers watching this closely and taking the pattern seriously.

[Scottishlibertarian]

I have come to believe that no-one knows what will happen to our economic future. More than this I am certain that predicting the timing of any economic catastrophe is impossible. I believe an economic catastrophe in the US, China, or Europe is likely to happen more than not. Whether this is in 2 years or 2 decades I have no idea.