Seriously, Apple Is Doomed

Daring Fireball ^ | 11/10/2012 | JOHN GRUBER

[WashingtonSource]

Interesting.

[Dr. Sivana]

An Apple employee from “the 1990s” has little to no experience under Steve Jobs, and certainly none under Cook, or with nearly all the Mac line. If he was under Spindler and Amelio, that doesn’t give him much more insifght than almost any palooka.

We may be past “Peak Apple”, as every booming company has its peak. That does not necessarily spell “DOOM”.

[Honorary Serb]

Apple has been “doomed” several times in the past.

It always came back, supported by a loyal core of Apple diehards like yours truly!

[Seruzawa]

Inferior products?

So, Apple is going to become more like Microsoft?

[Cringing Negativism Network]

Now that Apples are made in China, you might find the enthusiasm for every renew, shrinking all the time.

Just saying.

[lacrew]

I’m not an Apple cheerleader; but, my understanding is the company is doing beter than ever?

[InterceptPoint]

Long-term, the verdict is out. Jobs has only been gone for a year. Apple has yet to do a Big New Thing without him.

Apple is to Microsoft as hardware is to software. What "Big New Thing" is left for Microsoft in the software realm? Not much that I can see. Just ...

OperatingSystem=8
StillViable = TRUE
Do while StillViable
OperatingSystem = OperatingSystem+1
End Do

So if this is not good enough you go into Hardware, which Microsoft is doing.

So where goes Apple when there are no obvious Hardware "Big New Things". I'm not sure. Invade the automobile industry is a possibility. Put Apple software in every washing machine.

I think even Steve Jobs would struggle with the question. But unless they figure it out they will just duplicate the Microsoft code with something similar but with OperatingSystem replaced with iPad, iPhone, iTouch etc.

[E. Pluribus Unum]

Sounds like what Carly Fiorina did to HP.

[ImJustAnotherOkie]

Apple is now being run by the Bean Counters.

Macbook Pro is largely un-fixable because everything is soldered.

IPhone5 is not a compelling upgrade because of IOS6.

Mini-Pad sounds stupid and is built from 2 yr old off the shelf parts.

PR war games because of FoxConn’s China plant.

I hear of nothing on the horizon or in the pipeline resulting from R&D.

Sounds like Apple has sacrificed their future for current profits.

[Dr. Sivana]

Now that Apples are made in China, you might find the enthusiasm for every renew, shrinking all the time.

Apple's, and pretty much everyone else's electronics, have largely been made in Red China for a LONG time. I bought a U.S. made Supermicro mother board back in 1999, and the were a hold out.

In point of fact, Apple is actually starting a second source in Brazil. California is hostile to manufacturing. Malatsia, Hong Kong (Red China Lite), Thailand and Singapore are still in the mix, but it would be impossible to manufacture a modern computer in the U.S. using only U.S. sources for parts. To my knowledge, we make NO optical drives, no LCD screens, no hard disc drives, etc. I am doubtful that there are any U.S. based manufacturers of SSDs. Others can state whethere there is an ARM processor manufacturer or serious RAM nmanufacturer left.

The causes are multiple: high tax and regulatory environment combined with low tariffs and high wages. I don't like it, but I don't see where a large portion of the populace will give on any of those three causes to change the landscape.

[Jumper]

Apples problem is that US Law and the separate laws in different countries will result in different viewpoints. For example, in South Korea which is home to Samsung a near identical legal decision was rendered not in Apple's favor as had been the case in the US courts. Apple is only as secure as the political allies and perceived clout it can derive over competitors. Just as Microsoft has a major operating system, manufacturers their own hardware, and vendors a product line, each competes for shelve space in the open markets. The global economy may find Apple too expensive, or downtrodden peoples form a movement against them for their use of Chinese slave labor. The point is that Apple's value is derived from the perception of its worth - and today with so many other producers competing for the same currencies in all the markets, they have an advantage of playing politics, the courts, rolling out more products, etc. Ultimately dropping prices to sell as does Amazon a product at a breakeven price will break the Apple 40% profit driven stock value; If Samsung wanted to sell their S-IIIs for $300 it would kill the iPhone. If both Samsung and Amazon teamed together, and then further partnered with Nokia, HTC, and other manufacturers in a marketing campaign of giving more value than Apple and arguing their value over Apple in a prolonged marketing campaign it would doom the stock.

However, I do not think any of these manufacturers would drag another one down, and one need only look at the two party political system which needs each other, or the MSM which all work together to make their niche profits.

[tacticalogic]

Not much that I can see. Just ...

OperatingSystem=8
StillViable = TRUE
Do while StillViable
OperatingSystem = OperatingSystem+1
End Do

It's too bad they only have an operating system.

If they also had infrasctructure software like Exchange, Sharepoint, SQL, IIS, or a suite of desktop applications like Office, or development software like Visual Studio, and programming architectures like dotnet it might be different.

[bigbob]

Correct, but what is the difference? Then, Jobs was alive.

In many ways Apple was an extension of one man’s visionary brain. Only time will tell if “design by committee” will suffice to keep that pattern going.

[Dr. Sivana]

Apple is now being run by the Bean Counters.

Apple is run by a Logistics guy. Close to being a bean counter, but not the same.

Macbook Pro is largely un-fixable because everything is soldered.
Apple has been mostly that way since the original Mac 128K in 1984. Many of their most successful products were based on that. Something as simple as replacing a battery was not considered something for the consumer. It is less of an issue with the cost of electronics, even Apple's declining.
IPhone5 is not a compelling upgrade because of IOS6.
It is a good upgrade because of the faster processor and extra memory, and for some, the Lightning connector. I agree it is not a compelling upgarde for those who already have an iPhone 4.
Mini-Pad sounds stupid and is built from 2 yr old off the shelf parts.
The Mini-iPad was simply to keep the low-end of the market from buying into Kindles and Android-based devices. It is not supposed to be a show-stopper. Apple wants you to buy an iPad.

PR war games because of FoxConn’s China plant.

To the degree that is true, it will affect nearly every notebook and electronic gizmo manufacturer out there, except maybe Samsung and the like. I imagine they wouldn't want you to look to closely at their Red Chinese manufacturing facilities, either.

I hear of nothing on the horizon or in the pipeline resulting from R&D.
The Apple television set has been heavily rumored for a LONG time.


Sounds like Apple has sacrificed their future for current profits.

Focusing on current profits has always been an Apple trait. Sometimes it works better than other times. Their System 6 OS with a 68030 could address 9MB of RAM without jumping through hoops, something no MS-DOS based box could dream of (and the Unix folks couldn't get their act together). But Apple insisted on shipping boxes with piddly 256 SIMMS, and charging a super premium for upgrades. And don't get me started on Jobs attitude to major software developers in the early days (Ashton-Tate, Lotus).

Even now, Apple seems to be almost forgetting the Mac itself. The Mac Pro has been ignored for over two years. While that PC may not be a big money maker these days, it is the Mac Pros that the graphic devekopers and video editors use provide the mosty important part of the Mac fan base. THEY are the ones who stuck with Apple when there wasn't much reason to (early 90s).

[Dr. Sivana]

If they also had infrasctructure software like Exchange, Sharepoint, SQL, IIS, or a suite of desktop applications like Office, or development software like Visual Studio, and programming architectures like dotnet it might be different.

Appletalk, Applemail, CyberDog, Claris Office Mail, Hypercard, Claris Pro Office software (MacWrite Pro, Resolve Pro, MacDraw Pro, FileMaker Pro, Organizer), Claris Homepage (HTML development). This doesn't cover everything, and some of these were baby steps, but for the most part it didn't work out so well. The Claris line in particular made teh few existing Mac software companies (except Microsoft) REALLY mad. I will say their old server software worked great back in the day.

Right now, Apple seems to be putting its eggs in the HTML5 basket and of course iOS development, such as it is.

[pepsi_junkie]

The gist of this article is to list criticism of apple and then say "Steve Jobs did the exact same thing". It appears to be all its true, with specific examples.

On the other hand, Steve Jobs had an almost mystical aura. A cult of personality built up around him. Apple fans were in awe of him. He could get away with a lot that a room full of suits cannot.

[ImJustAnotherOkie]

Logistics is the core of Apple’s execution. Without it you’re nothing, but without the super product so what? Where’s the vision.

AppleTV - Ho-Hum...Can’t take it with you.
Macbook Pro - You can’t even upgrade RAM.
Iphone5 - Not compelling to me anyway and frankly kind of boring.
Mini-Pad - Low-end market with a middle tier price.

Point is Apple was a super-premium product now it is just premium. Apple used to spend a nickel and charge a quarter.

Apple created markets, now they just compete.

All of this happened in pretty short order.

[dfwgator]

This is life in the technology lane. If you always wait for the next price cut or to buy the new improved model, you’ll never buy any technology product because there is always something better and less expensive on the horizon. The good news is that if you buy products from companies that support them well, like Apple tries to do, you will receive years of useful and satisfying service from them even as newer models are introduced.

Agreed....This was key to Apple's success, sure newer models would come, but for the most part, you could use their products for years.....I still use my iPod "Classic" that I've had for five years.....no need for me to upgrade, it works great as it is.

[tacticalogic]

The comment was in response to an observation that all Microsoft can do keep releasing new OS versions, as if Windows was the the only product they have.