Posted on 10/21/2012 11:21:55 AM PDT by Perdogg
I apologize for the vanity, but I do not really know much about Intrade. I know it is called a "Prediction" site, which is a fancy legalistic word for gambling. I am assuming US law prohibits Americans from participating.
1. Today - New Hampshire and Alaska are considered toss up
2. Yesterday Colorado was toss up now leans Romney.
3. Friday - Ohio was shifting between toss up and Lean Obama.
In all of this Obama keeps flucuating between 60 and 61.5%. Once he hits 60% he goes up.
I don't understand how all of this works. It does not seem very logical.
I think Intrade is being played by foreign money. The more I think about this the more it makes complete sense.
Foreign money doesn’t have a legal inroad to influence US elections, except for something like Intrade.
This is exactly what is happening.
Intrade is being influenced by foreign money. Not to win money, but to influence the election.
Next week should be a much different story.
Basically, if Obama wins, we will all take it in the shorts.
So, why not hedge that by winning some money if Obama wins.
Put 5 sawbucks on Mitt and let it ride.
Intrade is a much thinner market than let’s say Wall Street. What that means is whereas it will take several million dollars to move a stock like MSFT or Apple a few pennies, half a million can move Intrade numbers by several percentage points. If a freeper is willing to bet $2 million on Romney, the numbers would change significantly.
Think of Intrade:
It is a free market. Anyone in the world can invest in it (except I think for Americans - not sure about that)
Communist China. Russia. Iran. Anyone.
Soros.
Imagine a tiny market, in a big international world seeking to advance a political agenda, but not having legal American resources to do so.
That IMHO is what is happening.
Intrade is being played.
I hope some real contrary money takes huge advantage of this, it is an opportunity just waiting for someone to take huge advantage of.
“Most of the people involved are Europeans and foreigners who probably know very little about Romney, other than he’s not Obama.”
They are all foreigners as Americans are banned from trading. Some free market, huh?
There is a legal betting site for US bettors at:
http://tippie.uiowa.edu/iem/
They post the current odds at:
http://iemweb.biz.uiowa.edu/quotes/Pres12_Quotes.html
Zero has as about much chance in Alaska as a Used Jesus Salesman..
Even the women here are packin heat..
Until about a week out Intrade is a gambling site. It is being churned.
Until about a week out Intrade is a gambling site. It is being churned.
At 5:00 PM Pacific time on election day 2004 Bush was at 15% to be re-elected.
Basically, if Obama wins, we will all take it in the shorts.
So, why not hedge that by winning some money if Obama wins.
Yeah, I’ve considered that issue myself.
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