Think of Intrade:
It is a free market. Anyone in the world can invest in it (except I think for Americans - not sure about that)
Communist China. Russia. Iran. Anyone.
Soros.
Imagine a tiny market, in a big international world seeking to advance a political agenda, but not having legal American resources to do so.
That IMHO is what is happening.
Intrade is being played.
I hope some real contrary money takes huge advantage of this, it is an opportunity just waiting for someone to take huge advantage of.
There is a legal betting site for US bettors at:
http://tippie.uiowa.edu/iem/
They post the current odds at:
http://iemweb.biz.uiowa.edu/quotes/Pres12_Quotes.html