Sunspot group 1158 produces an X class solar flare ( last X class flare was Dec 13th, 2006 )

Watts Up With That? ^ | February 14, 2011 | Anthony Watts

[Ernest_at_the_Beach]

It’s the first one in 38 months,  Solar expert Dr. Leif Svalgaard says the last X class flare was Dec 13th, 2006. The flare today is the first Solar Cycle 24 flare reaching X class level.

See the Xray plot below:

Now THAT’S a flare:

Lookout for auroras in the next couple of days.

Flare classifications: Each category for x-ray flares has nine subdivisions ranging from, e.g., C1 to C9, M1 to M9, and X1 to X9.

Class	Peak (W/m2)between 1 and 8 Angstroms
B		I < 10-6
C	10-6 < = I < 10-5
M	10-5 < = I < 10-4
X	I > = 10-4

Live updates on the WUWT solar page

h/t to Leif Svalgaard

 

i

 

[UCANSEE2]

Tonight/tomorrow we should see some nice auroras from the CME. But that is from a flare that already went off.

1158 is aimed right at us now, and growing. If it gives off a larger or X class flare, we could be in trouble.

[Ernest_at_the_Beach]

See this:

Solar Flares -- Movie

Check out the comments too.

[Ernest_at_the_Beach]

See #3.

[steelyourfaith]

 

Beam me to Planet Gore !

[BenLurkin]

Somebody left these on my porch last night....

[Ernest_at_the_Beach]

From the comments:

********************************EXCERPT**************************************

Tom Rowan says:

February 14, 2011 at 7:21 pm

In an April 2, 2009 article, retired U.S. Navy physicist and engineer Jame A. Marusek writes: “The sun has gone very quiet as it transitions to Solar Cycle 24.

“Since the current transition now exceeds 568 spotless days, it is becoming clear that sun has undergone a state change. It is now evident that the Grand Maxima state that has persisted during most of the 20th century has come to an abrupt end.

“(The sun) might (1) revert to the old solar cycles or (2) the sun might go even quieter into a “Dalton Minimum” or a Grand Minima such as the “Maunder Minimum”. It is still a little early to predict which way it will swing. Each of these two possibilities holds a great threat to our nation.

“We are now at a crossroad. Two paths lie before us. Both are marked with a signpost that reads “Danger”! Down one path lies monstrous solar storms. Down the other path lies several decades of crushing cold temperatures and global famine.”

“If the sun becomes quieter than the old solar cycles, producing more than 1028 spotless days, then we might slip into a Dalton Minimum or maybe even a Grand Minima such as the Maunder Minimum. This solar state will last for decades. Several solar scientist have predicted this will begin in Solar Cycle 25, about a decade from now. But a few have predicted this will occur now in Solar Cycle 24.

“A quiet sun will cause temperatures globally to take a nose-dive. We will experience temperatures that we have not seen in over 200 years, during the time of the early pioneers.

The other possibility Marusek sees is a quiet sun marked with explosive flares capable of returning our electronic society off for years.

Scary stuff.

[wolfman]

I think it just did

[seawolf101]

[23 Everest]

Don’t you just love how all these predictions, solar flares, global warming, ice age, deforestation, starvation, overpopulation is always 10 years from what ever year the predictions are made?

[dayglored]

I imagine you’d be interested in this...

[ChildOfThe60s]

BTTT

[Bean Counter]

If Betelgeuse really exploded over 600 years ago then the first flash ought to get here any time now. When the lights come up at midnight and it looks like noon outside, I’ll worry about it then. Until then, sunspots, sunshmots....

[Nowhere Man]

Not only that but as an amateur radio operator, it could affect HF DX propagation. Had amateur radio, or any other radio, been around during the Maunder Minimum, long distance radio on HF would be almost impossible during the day and hams would have to wait until night for long distance communications. During that time, the 80 meter amateur radio band (3500 to 4000 kc) would be the best bet for long range communications at night. WWV, the time signal station on shortwave, would most likely be only received at night on the 2500 and 5000 kc frequencies.

Unless we depend on satellites for comms, this would put our military comms at risk.

[vanilla swirl]

““A quiet sun will cause temperatures globally to take a nose-dive. We will experience temperatures that we have not seen in over 200 years, during the time of the early pioneers.

The other possibility Marusek sees is a quiet sun marked with explosive flares capable of returning our electronic society off for years.”

So we could all freeze or our electricity goes away.
Goooood!

[Marine_Uncle]

"Scary stuff."
I'll throw a few sets of dittos on that one. Taint looking good at all.

[SunkenCiv]

Thanks Ernest_at_the_Beach.

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