Posted on 05/08/2010 10:08:51 AM PDT by Ernest_at_the_Beach
Recent Variations In Upper Ocean Heat Content – Information From Phil Klotzbach
By Dr. Roger Pielke Senior
Phil Klotzbach has graciously permitted me to post an update on upper ocean heat content in the equatorial upper ocean. He writes
“The Climate Prediction Center recently released its equatorial upper ocean heat content for April 2010. One of the primary areas that they focus on is the equatorial heat content averaged over the area from 180-100W. The decrease in upper ocean heat content from March to April was 1C, which is the largest decrease in equatorial upper ocean heat content in this area since the CPC began keeping records of this in 1979. The upwelling phase of a Kelvin wave was likely somewhat responsible for this significant cooling. It seems like just about every statistical and dynamical model is calling for ENSO to dissipate over the next month or two as well, so it’s probable that we will see a transition to neutral conditions shortly. I have attached a spreadsheet showing upper ocean heat content data from CPC since 1979. In case you’re interested, the correlation between April upper ocean heat content from 180-100W and August-October Nino 3.4 is an impressive 0.75 over the years from 1979-2009.
He has plotted the data below. An interesting question is to where this heat has gone.
It could have moved north and south in the upper ocean, however, to the extent the sea surface temperature anomalies map to the upper ocean heat content, there is no evidence of large heat transfers except, perhaps, in the tropical Atlantic [see].
The heat could have been transferred deeper into the ocean. However, if this is true, this heat would have been seen moving to lower levels, but, so far, there is no evidence of such a large vertical heat transfer.
The heat could, of course, be lost to space. This appears to be the most likely explanation.
What are the implications of this, if any?
Cooler ocean water....
Profiling the ocean is more important than profiling “terrorists”...right?
From what I have gathered that if global warming had any validity there would have been an increase in ocean temperatures. After all the planet is three quarters covered by ocean.
When NOAA went around the world last year you found temepratures stayed the same or went down slightly. That is why the study never made it to the mainstream media. The oceans act as a heat sink/moderator of climate.
The whole thing is a scam.
Now if the temperatures are dropping it could signal a trend to another ice age, or it could signal a trend for nothing at all because it might just be a natural cycle.
“The decrease in upper ocean heat content from March to April was 1C – largest since 1979″
From the comments:
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RockyRoad says:
While driving to work this morning and listening to the radio, the weatherman said the low temperature in West Yellowstone last night was 8 degrees F. This is the 7th of May, for Pete’s sake! So obviously the missing heat hasn’t been found in Yellowstone.
We’re doomed.
It’s interesting that there seem to be regular waves in the data in the second chart. WUWT?
JoNova website...posted May 2nd, 2010:
The La Nina shark rises to bite --animation
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Does this herald the end of this years warm spell?
Frank Lansner has been watching the Southern Oscillation Index and noticed it’s rapid climb out of El Nino territory. He’s found graphs showing how the warm water is displaced from below and I’ve pasted them into a brutally rough animation.
See Franks full post
I wouldn’t use a single season to debunk AGW (and nor does Frank) but we all know that the crowds are swayed by weather, and Frank’s point is that the weather is possibly not going to help The Big Scare Campaign.
McLean, De Frietas, and Carter published a paper last year pointing out how much influence the La-Nina-El-Nino system has on the global climate. In an El Nino, the surface of the Pacific doesn’t churn as much because there is not as much wind, and so warm waters stay on the top and satellites record high temperatures. But in a La Nina the winds resume, surface mixing increases, deep cold waters from below displace the warmer water on top, and so the ocean surface cools.
If you’ve wondered why, during the 1998 El Nino, the satellite records “spiked” up so high compared to the surface records, it’s because of the influence of ocean temperatures. Satellites measure the surface temperature of the planet, and 70% of the surface is ocean. So when warm water is “stalled” on the surface, it shows up in the satellite records. But deep down, the oceans presumably are not getting that warming effect (or at least it is delayed).
There is roughly a 5-7 month lag between the SOI and global temperatures.
John McLean makes a guesstimate on the run (from an airport lounge):
I think UAH LTT’s [lower trophosphere satellite measurements of temperature] will remain on the high side until around October then a cooling off. Maybe we’re looking at another cold northern winter at year’s end.
Thanks to William Kininmonth for advice (over the last year), and Frank Lansner for his work
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UPDATE: There’s become quite a debate about the likelihood of a La Nina.
Does this mean that we are doomed?.....
The graphing techniques can be misleading for someone not up to speed....guess I am in that group.
IMO you are correct. The ocean is the worlds heat sink. The fear of global warming is that the water from the icecaps would melt and dilute the salt water. Think of it as radiator fluid. If the fluid is too diluted it doesn’t cool as well. If the alarmists were correct the dilution of the oceans would have a very measurable affect, but as is shown time and again that is not the case.
Does a sheen of oil atop a large portion of the gulf warm or cool the waters underneath?
For the globe it is a very small area....but I don’t have a direct answer.
I agree its small relative to the rest of the oceans but its one of the warmer waters. Rest assured if it traps heat that’s the area they’ll monitor and tell us temps have risen in oceans.
The Humboldt Bay region had a light frost Thursday morning with the low temp of 32/34 plus we had the wettest winter in many years and it more then doubled the average in April. We will see if our summer fogs return after a hiatus for a few years. So far May has been very windy but clear...
A light frost....damn...this is May...
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