Posted on 04/07/2010 3:12:46 AM PDT by Swordmaker
I don’t get it. It costs $500 for the basic model, when you could get a laptop with a lot more functionality for about the same price. The iPad hype machine has been in full effect this week, and I still think it’s just that—hype.
As I wrote previously, nobody has ever made a commercially successful tablet computer. The iPod was not the first portable MP3 player, but it was the first that got widespread appeal for its simplicity and superior storage capacity for the cost. The iPhone was not the first smartphone, and it still faces fierce competition from rivals at Research In Motion (RIMM) (the maker of the BlackBerry), Nokia (NOK), and HTC.
While mainstream media has been ecstatic about the iPad (it made the cover of both TIME and Newsweek), it’s been blasted by tech critics. Gizmodo, one of the most popular tech websites, wrote their analysis with a succinct headline: “8 Things That Suck About the iPad.”
What is this thing?
So, why then is there so much hype? It’s not just a rhetorical question. For one, even if you are not a Mac user, everyone loves Steve Jobs. He has been a visionary in the computing industry and made computers accessible to the masses with the old Apple II. Steve Jobs also turned Apple around completely from the 1990s, a time when an old computer science professor of mine said that “Apple tried really hard to go out of business.”
That said, Steve Jobs has been wrong before. One of his earlier projects before he was ousted as the Apple CEO (and obviously before he was re-hired later) was the Apple Lisa. It was a computer built in 1983 with a graphical user interface and features now associated with a modern computer—significantly ahead of its time in 1983. Unfortunately, it was horribly expensive and ended up as a commercial flop.
The iPad could be even worse. At least the Lisa was ahead of its time. The iPad isn’t ahead of anything, but it’s certainly expensive. Tablet computers didn’t flop when HP (HPQ) was making them because HP lacked vision or creativity; they flopped because tablets were a bad idea. They’re not as useful as a laptop, and they’re not mobile enough or cheap enough to replace a smartphone—and of course, they can’t make phone calls.
In short, tablets try to fill a niche that doesn’t exist.
What I find most amusing about this is the talk that the iPad will “save the media industry.” No, it won’t. It is just another means to distribute media. If customers are not interested in watching something on a computer, they also won’t be interested in watching it on a tablet. As far as the iPad being a “Kindle Killer”, that may be so, but both Kindle and the iPad are competing against another format for books, called paper. I don’t buy the iPad hype. Analyst expectations for iPad revenue are way overblown. If I turn out to be wrong, I’ll gladly eat my words, but I’m pretty sure that I’m not wrong.
Update: Here's David Letterman's take on the iPad. Watch the whole thing; he nailed it:
Alex Cook is a graduate of the UNC and studied economics. In college, he founded Tar Heel Business, a print and internet publication focused on business and economics. Alex now writes for frontieroutlook.com. Check out that site for macroeconomic trends and investment ideas.
I don't know. P T Barnum and suckers' money?
“LOL! I am in marketing. I’ve used Macs since the eighties. Say what you will about Jobs, as I said, he can be a control freak and a jerk. But, he does have a guiding philosophy, has always followed it, and it’s plainly visible in the products from Apple under his tenure. This one is no exception.”
OS X and iPod. What else? The design of the Mac, sure. But it has gone through 3 major revisions since Jobs returned. Was that marketing or R&D?
Apple is poised to sell more tablet computers this year than have sold in the last decade. Tell me, what is is those competing products are doing right?
???????
If burn CDs to my computer, put them in iTunes, then download the songs from iTunes to my iPhone or iPod. I have never bought music from Apple. I have copied music from cassette tapes that I have put on my iPod.
I thought the same thing when Mac dumped the floppy disc. Apple was right.
Fine, you keep buying cheap netbooks. They clearly serve you and your needs well.
Both, clearly. What would the Win world do, without Apple's form factor to copy?
You still haven’t given a straight answer. What is so different about having content available on this tablet as opposed to my netbook?
Having content will be no different. The source of that content, how it is delivered, how the end user interacts with that content and where, will be different. Or not, depending upon the wants and needs of that end user.
I think so, too...
Form factor? If they copied the iMac G3, I missed it. And the iMac G4. Or even the iMac G5. I don’t follow Windows stuff so I’ll have to assume that they’ve all got Intel iMac-like all-in-one’s now.
The only thing I look to Apple for is their OS. The new iMacs are beautiful. (Have one.) And the MacBook unibodies? Superb. The iPod was a clear win. But all have been evolving into these great designs. And some of the stuff that preceded them (I take them apart) was horrible, brainless, insane. Would that they had cracked a case on some Windows boxes.
When you have only 4 products and you’ve been reworking them for 10 or 15 years, you had better be learning something from your mistakes.
With every successive wave of new product from Apple, the industry as a whole has been altered, ever since the first, “gumdrop” iMac. We still see jewel toned translucent plastics, over a decade later, across all manner of consumer products. Titanium PowerBook? Same. Aluminum tower? Same, but plastic. iPod? Same. iPhone? Same.
1. Not having to lug around extra space & mass of physical components you don’t need to read books, watch movies, surf web, hear music, browse pictures, etc. So long as you’re connected (wireless), you don’t need keyboard, removable media, ports, origami, etc.
2. Replacing much of that space & mass with battery. 11+ hour battery life vs. what? 3-5? Content is more available when the battery isn’t dead.
3. Instant on. Push button, go.
4. Touchscreen. Swipe screen to turn a page. Touch an item to access it. No coordination of trying to touch/type/poke somewhere else to activate what you’re looking at or emulate a natural movement. This is a bigger deal than most people give touchscreens credit for: reduce the cognitive cycle time and you’ve got more time to think about other stuff.
5. Weight. Ask a backpacker: given time, each extra ounce is just another pound.
0. The whole of the above (and other refinements) is greater than the sum of the parts. You can nitpick each point, but the aggregate just makes for a superior content experience.
-1. Hey, if your netbook works for you and you’re happy with it, great.
As a business model, extracting $150 million in a day is fantastic. It remains to be seen just how much of a game changer the iPad will be (or not). I haven’t seen one yet.
For some reason, many FReepers equate anything from Apple == Liberal. I guess the company probably *is* liberal, but so is Microsoft, so ... *shrug* I dunno, what other choice is there? Red Star Linux? *BSD?
BTW I run Win XP, 7, OS X, Solaris, and Debian Linux on my various machines. Different platforms do different things well. I’m sure this will be the case with the iPad and any other tablets that are developed if it takes off.
Netbooks are pretty light and compact, plus they fold to protect the screen. Battery life you may have a point, but how many situations are people really in for 11 hours without a power source?
Windows can hibernate and turn on in a relatively short time.
And I have never had “cognitive cycle time” difficulties using a mouse.
I see some obvious knockoffs but I also see some Windows laptops that are in many ways better than MacBooks. The iPhone? Yes. They set the standard on that. The iPod, a forerunner of the iPhone, was a great compilation product. But don’t forget AppleTV. AirPort Base Stations? Sure, I want to pay twice as much for a wireless router. AirTunes rather than an FM transmitter?
Love my Macs, but everything Apple is not “magical”.
Apple ditched the floppy drive while others still offered it. Apple ditched the old serial and parallel connectors in favor of USB and Firewire, and the others still offered RS-232 and parallel. Apple ditched CRTs for LCDs way before the competition.
Because of its unique position, Apple can afford to drop legacy technology and legacy ways of thinking. OTOH, the iPad still has USB, just not in the form of that overly-large USB plug.
To elaborate on my “cognitive cycle time” comment...
Mouse:
-5. Find mouse.
-4. Find other end of mouse tail.
-3. Plug it in.
-2. Find table to put mouse on.
-1. Put mouse on table.
0. See icon.
1. Identify mouse location.
2. Put hand on mouse.
3. Wiggle mouse to attract eye to cursor.
4. Coordinate motion of mouse with motion of cursor.
5. Move mouse, correcting for errors in cursor position.
6. Stop moving mouse.
7. Click mouse button.
Touchscreen.
0. See icon.
1. Touch it.
Oh, sure, no big deal. Sure I’m overstating it.
Did you know one reason that Chinese are so good at math relative to Americans is that the human mind can process Chinese words for numbers faster than the English words? Tiny improvements in cycle times add up. While you’re looking for the cursor, I’ve already touched & activated the icon.
Turns out that hinge is the reason I need a new computer. The display's flexicable running thru that hinge is breaking. Same thing happened to my folding cellphone. I'm learning the hard way that "folding to protect the screen" is the wrong solution, as it introduces a new and susceptible point of failure.
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