Posted on 08/20/2009 10:18:20 AM PDT by Signalman
Mortgage lenders say the flood of foreclosures has not yet crested. Highwater mark should come this fall.
NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- The number of Americans who have fallen at least 30 days behind on their home loan payments inched up slightly between the first and second quarters of 2009, but jumped 44% compared on an annual basis, according to an industry report.
That puts delinquencies at a record 9.24% of mortgages, according to the National Delinquency Report from the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) That represents more than 4 million of the 45 million borrowers covered by the report.
What the rate does not include, however, are loans already in foreclosure. Some 4.3% of all the mortgages are in that stage, up from 3.85% three months earlier and 1.55 percentage points from one year ago.
The combined percentage of loans past due and those already in foreclosure hit 13.16% during the quarter, the highest ever recorded by the MBA survey
"There was a major drop in foreclosures on subprime ARM loans," said Jay Brinkmann, chief economist for the MBA, in a prepared statement. "The drop, however, was offset by increases in the foreclosure rates on the other types of loans, with prime fixed-rate loans having the biggest increase."
Indeed, the MBA survey reported that prime, fixed-rate mortgages accounted for nearly one in every three foreclosure starts. That's way up from a year ago, when only one of every five foreclosure start involved a prime loan.
(Excerpt) Read more at money.cnn.com ...
And what % of all home occupants are delinquents?
Just wondering...
In states like CA and FL with massive home value declines one research paper I read claims at least 25% of defaults are borrowers dumping the house on the bank because they are so much underwater not because of ability to pay.
Harry Dent (”The Great Depression Ahead”) predicted this real estate bubble burst for next year into 2011. He also predicted home values to fall to about mid-90’s levels.
So heads up for those who expected to sell in the next couple of years. Maybe now is the time.
“Mortgage lenders say the flood of foreclosures has not yet crested. Highwater mark should come this fall.”
This fall? I heard two credible analysts say that forclosures would not crest until the middle of next year.
Which means there are 91% of mortgage holders being responsible and paying their mortgage ....
and I treading carefully on managing our finances and preparing for the future based on Harry’s predictions
We have been waiting since early May for our Refi to close. We have been told that everything looks great, and that we are locked in, and they put the blame on the underwriters because of the very large backlog. Our rate is frozen only until October, so nothng is really frozen, and as for the documents we faxed back in May, many of them have to be replaced because they are now too old. My wife spent yesterday getting those replacements faxed in. In the mean time our lives are on hold.
I have read on the web many many stories just the same. We thought it was just our company (Wells fargo), but it appears to be wide spread.
Here is a related story:
Mortgage Market Locks Up
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2009/05/mortgage-market-locks-up.html
And this one:
Dear Mortgage Refinance Applicant, Expect Delays
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2009/05/dear-mortgage-refinance-applicant.html
This can't happen as the dollar cheapens overseas foreign investment will keep the nominal real estate prices up to present (2007) "real" levels.
I’d like to know the numbers from say 5 years ago.
But, but Hussein said just the other day that he’d already fixed the economy!
Nope. Only 86.94% are being responsible.
The 9% did NOT include homes already in foreclosure.
The good news is that that 91% are in GOOD shape. So where’s the problem.
banks can only have about 4% delinquent otherwise there insolvent
Excerpt:
Let's juxtapose two stories. First, from Bloomberg:
Aug. 14 (Bloomberg) -- More than 150 publicly traded U.S. lenders own nonperforming loans that equal 5 percent or more of their holdings, a level that former regulators say can wipe out a bank’s equity and threaten its survival.
Ok. Now how about this one?
WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- Delinquency rates for loans and leases at U.S. banks increased to a record 6.49% in the second quarter from 5.58% in the first quarter, the Federal Reserve announced Monday.
So let me see if I get this right.
At 5% of non-performing loans a bank is at risk of being insolvent.
But the entire banking system in The United States had its non-performing loan ratio increase from 5.58% in the first quarter to 6.49% in the second, a record, and higher than the 5% level at which the survival of a bank(ing system) is threatened with collapse.
Hmmmm.... So should we take from this that the entire US Banking System is about to collapse?
Ok - was just going by the article ... but still that’s still a lot of responsible house owners (everyone has a home, you just need a house to put it in) .....
We tried. Had the house under contract and everything. Then the FHA loan appraiser says its worth 15k less than we had "sold" it for. Our realtor appealed, but FHA appraisers are being super conservative right now. The buyer could no longer get his FHA loan and doesn't qualify for conventional. We can't drop the price and cut into our down payment, cause then we can't even afford a house as good as the one we're in. So we said screw it, and are taking the house off the market--luckily we are under no pressure to move.
And this is in the Northeast, where the housing market didn't really take that big of a hit.
Whaddya gonna do. Sit tight, keep paying down the mortgage, and try again in a couple of years I guess.
Hmm. How about that.
Hold on a second, I've got to run to the bank with a fistful of withdrawal slips. ;)
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