Crop report reflects abundant crop, meaning lower market prices

The Journal of Business ^ | August 16, 2009 | Julie Douglas

[Military family member]

WEST LAFAYETTE, Ind. - A Purdue agricultural economist and state agricultural officials at the Indiana State Fair on Wednesday (Aug. 12) were surprised at the abundant 2009 crop projected by a U.S. Department of Agriculture report, especially given the difficult time farmers throughout the Eastern Corn Belt had getting their crops planted this spring.

The USDA's Crop Production Report has U.S. corn production at 12.8 billion bushels, up 5 percent from 2008. Soybean production is estimated at 3.2 billion bushels, up 8 percent from this past year, while wheat production is estimated at 2.18 billion bushels, 3 percent higher.

Indiana corn production is forecast at 903 million bushels, up 3 percent from 2008, with an expected yield of 163 bushels per acre. There was virtually no change in soybean production, which is estimated at 245.6 million bushels with an expected yield of 45 bushels per acre. Both Indiana corn and soybeans were rated as 66 percent in good to excellent condition.

[E. Pluribus Unum]

The rain in the midwest had been incredible this year. Steady throughout the summer. Not even the usual August drought. The corn and beans look better than I have ever seen them.

[Military family member]

I know there was a lot of worry early on whether the fields would dry enough to allow farmers into the fields.

[calex59]

I think they had better look at the congress caused drought in CA before they go making crop predictions.

[blam]

El Nino Threat Blows Commodity Prices Higher

[snip]

"Typically, El Niño has the potential to disrupt the rainy seasons and cause lower rainfall in India, Australia, Southeast Asia – the Philippines and Indonesia – southern Africa and Central America," said Robert Stefanski, a WMO scientific officer. "In past El Niño events, droughts have occurred and lowered food production in many of these regions."

Right now, the monsoons are late in India, the world's third-largest wheat producer. Many think this is an indicator that a severe ENSO event is about to occur. If it is as bad as some observers think, the impact on food production could be disastrous.

[snip]

[jagusafr]

Mrs Colonel and I were in Fredericksburg, TX this weekend for our anniversary and found out the entire peach crop was wiped out by a late frost back in the spring. The ones they’d shipped in were tasteless and small. Too bad - Fredericksburg and Stonewall usually have some great ones.

Colonel, USAFR

[Marie Antoinette]

I’m in MO and the crops around here are lush and beautiful! We have had such a nice, moderate-weather summer after such a wet spring.

[Eric in the Ozarks]

Missouri peaches from the Bootheel are coming in. They look and taste good.

[nascarnation]

Agreee 100%
late going in, but perfect conditons once planted

[dfwgator]

A Purdue agricultural economist and state agricultural officials at the Indiana State Fair on Wednesday (Aug. 12) were surprised at the abundant 2009 crop projected by a U.S. Department of Agriculture report

"Unless that crop report...God help us!"

[Nam Vet]

From what I've read, world food inventory (at next to nothing) is the lowest in many decades, increasing the likelihood of mass starvation and radically higher food prices.

Nam Vet

[Ev Reeman]

So what is the deal with sugar all of a sudden?

I do not believe their is a sugar shortage and if there is I believe then that it is an artifically created shortage to raise prices.

[17th Miss Regt]

I think they had better look at the congress caused drought in CA before they go making crop predictions.

They did. The results - dust bowl conditions in part of the San Joaquin valley - are most gratifying. They are planning to do this on a national scale. They just need to find the right species in the right locations.

[Mr. Lucky]

You might note that wheat prices have fallen since publication of the Telegraph article.

I'm not sure what a WMO scientific officer is, but he's not very good at projecting commodity prices.

[blam]

"You might note that wheat prices have fallen since publication of the Telegraph article."

Looks like the concern for wheat is over a new u99 wheat rust.

Wheat Crisis: The Next Black Swan?

[lado]

HaHa! I knew someone was going to make a Trading Places reference, and that’s what happened, the orange crop was in abundance and the Dukes got screwed!

[madamemayhem]

would not be a surprise really would it? since oblabo is trying his damnedest to follow the exact same stupid ideas of FDR, this would be next step to take.

[blam]

"From what I've read, world food inventory (at next to nothing) is the lowest in many decades, increasing the likelihood of mass starvation and radically higher food prices."

I've read exactly the same from at least two different places.