Posted on 10/23/2007 5:50:12 PM PDT by GraniteStateConservative
vs.
Curt Schilling vs. Ubaldo Jimenez
AccuScore has run more than 10,000 simulations for every World Series game for Yahoo! Sports, calculating how each team's performance changes in response to game conditions, opponent's abilities, roster moves, weather and more. Each game is simulated one play at a time and the game is replayed a minimum of 10,000 times to generate forecasted winning percentages, player statistics and a variety of game-changing scenarios.
Boston winning 66.8 percent of World Series simulations
AccuScore simulates each playoff game and the entire playoff series 10,000 times. This season, the team that has won over 50 percent of series simulations won their series with one exception: New York won 51 percent of simulations over Cleveland. AccuScore correctly projected Colorado to upset both Philadelphia and Arizona, but in simulations vs. Boston, the Red Sox ride home-field advantage and the dominant pitching of Josh Beckett to win 66.8 percent of series simulations.
The forecast below is based on the designated starters and was run on data available as of October 23. AccuScore's proprietary algorithm weights each game's data, and as each game is played the simulation winning percentages will change. The simulation winning percentages also will change if the projected starters change.
| Game | Starters | COL | BOS | |
|
|
||||
| Game 1 | Francis vs. Beckett | 31.2% | 68.8% | |
|
|
||||
| Game 2 | Jimenez vs. Schilling | 35.7% | 64.3% | |
|
|
||||
| Game 3 | Matsuzaka vs. Fogg | 52.1% | 49.2% | |
|
|
||||
| Game 4 | Lester vs. Cook | 56.3% | 43.7% | |
|
|
||||
| Game 5 | Beckett vs. Francis | 45.9% | 54.1% | |
|
|
||||
| Game 6 | Jimenez vs. Schilling | 35.7% | 64.3% | |
|
|
||||
| Game 7 | Fogg vs. Matsuzaka | 39.0% | 61.0% |
|
| WIN SERIES | 33.2% | 66.8% |
|
PITCHERS (11): Josh Beckett, Manny Delcarmen, Eric Gagne, Jon Lester, Javier Lopez, Daisuke Matsuzaka, Hideki Okajima, Jonathan Papelbon, Curt Schilling, Kyle Snyder, Mike Timlin.
CATCHERS (2): Doug Mirabelli, Jason Varitek.
INFIELDERS (7): Alex Cora, Eric Hinske, Mike Lowell, Julio Lugo, David Ortiz, Dustin Pedroia, Kevin Youkilis.
OUTFIELDERS (5): Coco Crisp, J.D. Drew, Jacoby Ellsbury, Bobby Kielty, Manny Ramirez.
CATCHERS (2): Chris Iannetta, Yorvit Torrealba.
INFIELDERS (5): Garrett Atkins, Jamey Carroll, Todd Helton, Kazuo Matsui, Troy Tulowitzki.
OUTFIELDERS (7): Jeff Baker, Brad Hawpe, Matt Holliday, Seth Smith, Ryan Spilborghs, Cory Sullivan, Willy Taveras.
Dice-K seems to be in love with the breaking ball so far...
The a-hole waving the banner behind home plate ought to be tossed.
I think the very first pitch was a fastball. Dice-K tends to shy away from a pitch if someone really clubs the ball.
Nice play - got the lead runner. He’s thinking.
He needs to show it so the Rockies respect it. With Holiday he threw him an outside change which actaully sped up his fastball.
Brilliant. Good job DiceK.
Well done Dice-K to get Matsui!
Gammons said when we signed him that he’s going to be one of the best fielding pitchers in baseball because they focus on it in Japan and because DiceK took to the instruction well in Japan.
DiceK is settling in. I can feel it.
Nice job Dice man
That reminds me...time to get another beer!
Matsui should freeze on comebacker to the pitcher - he doesn’t LOL!
15 pitches. Minimal effort.
Wonder if he can hit at all?
They need to run and push the issue. If the ball gets through he’s home with their first run.
JD Drew gives them an easy out.
AAAARRRRGGGHHH
I suppose because Fogg has beaten a few ace opponent pitchers.
DAMN. Now THAT’S a broken bat. Holy cow.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.