Posted on 10/23/2007 5:50:12 PM PDT by GraniteStateConservative
vs.
Curt Schilling vs. Ubaldo Jimenez
AccuScore has run more than 10,000 simulations for every World Series game for Yahoo! Sports, calculating how each team's performance changes in response to game conditions, opponent's abilities, roster moves, weather and more. Each game is simulated one play at a time and the game is replayed a minimum of 10,000 times to generate forecasted winning percentages, player statistics and a variety of game-changing scenarios.
Boston winning 66.8 percent of World Series simulations
AccuScore simulates each playoff game and the entire playoff series 10,000 times. This season, the team that has won over 50 percent of series simulations won their series with one exception: New York won 51 percent of simulations over Cleveland. AccuScore correctly projected Colorado to upset both Philadelphia and Arizona, but in simulations vs. Boston, the Red Sox ride home-field advantage and the dominant pitching of Josh Beckett to win 66.8 percent of series simulations.
The forecast below is based on the designated starters and was run on data available as of October 23. AccuScore's proprietary algorithm weights each game's data, and as each game is played the simulation winning percentages will change. The simulation winning percentages also will change if the projected starters change.
| Game | Starters | COL | BOS | |
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| Game 1 | Francis vs. Beckett | 31.2% | 68.8% | |
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| Game 2 | Jimenez vs. Schilling | 35.7% | 64.3% | |
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| Game 3 | Matsuzaka vs. Fogg | 52.1% | 49.2% | |
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| Game 4 | Lester vs. Cook | 56.3% | 43.7% | |
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| Game 5 | Beckett vs. Francis | 45.9% | 54.1% | |
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| Game 6 | Jimenez vs. Schilling | 35.7% | 64.3% | |
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| Game 7 | Fogg vs. Matsuzaka | 39.0% | 61.0% |
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| WIN SERIES | 33.2% | 66.8% |
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PITCHERS (11): Josh Beckett, Manny Delcarmen, Eric Gagne, Jon Lester, Javier Lopez, Daisuke Matsuzaka, Hideki Okajima, Jonathan Papelbon, Curt Schilling, Kyle Snyder, Mike Timlin.
CATCHERS (2): Doug Mirabelli, Jason Varitek.
INFIELDERS (7): Alex Cora, Eric Hinske, Mike Lowell, Julio Lugo, David Ortiz, Dustin Pedroia, Kevin Youkilis.
OUTFIELDERS (5): Coco Crisp, J.D. Drew, Jacoby Ellsbury, Bobby Kielty, Manny Ramirez.
CATCHERS (2): Chris Iannetta, Yorvit Torrealba.
INFIELDERS (5): Garrett Atkins, Jamey Carroll, Todd Helton, Kazuo Matsui, Troy Tulowitzki.
OUTFIELDERS (7): Jeff Baker, Brad Hawpe, Matt Holliday, Seth Smith, Ryan Spilborghs, Cory Sullivan, Willy Taveras.
crap. We definitely need Ellsbury on 3B now for the sac fly possibility.
Come on, Manny.
Ok. Manny officially has the most disgusting batting helmet I’ve EVER seen.
That was a terrible AB by Ortiz.
Manny isn’t looking much better than Ortiz at the moment.
You should have seen Trot Nixon’s when he played for the Sox.
There go the towels again...
If Francoma would have had Ellsbury stealing 3B then we have a run.
Good pitches from Fogg. Junkball, but effective.
It’s pine tar.
I’m really more concerned about Francona leaving Ortiz in the lineup.
Squanders suck.
This is actually good news for us because DiceK has better control than Fogg and Fogg is getting some wide strikezone calls. Please be consistent, ump.
Only consolation is the number pitches da fogster had to throw.
No runs, true but...they made Fogg work.
Fogg is keeping it low. The Red Sox made him throw 27 pitches in the first.
Ortiz killed the Rockies in game 1 and he’s having a great postseason. Youk improves the bench in ways that Ortiz really can’t.
I hope he goes in the dugout and is embarassed with what he did there.
Fogg threw 27 pitches that inning with a 15/12 K/B ratio. If they can keep that pressure up then he’s out before the 5th.
Why they keep calling that guy a “drag queen slayer”?
That’s not how I wanted this to start.
Right down the middle by Dice-K.
Expect a run or three this inning.
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