Posted on 10/23/2007 5:50:12 PM PDT by GraniteStateConservative
Curt Schilling vs. Ubaldo Jimenez
AccuScore has run more than 10,000 simulations for every World Series game for Yahoo! Sports, calculating how each team's performance changes in response to game conditions, opponent's abilities, roster moves, weather and more. Each game is simulated one play at a time and the game is replayed a minimum of 10,000 times to generate forecasted winning percentages, player statistics and a variety of game-changing scenarios.
Boston winning 66.8 percent of World Series simulations
AccuScore simulates each playoff game and the entire playoff series 10,000 times. This season, the team that has won over 50 percent of series simulations won their series with one exception: New York won 51 percent of simulations over Cleveland. AccuScore correctly projected Colorado to upset both Philadelphia and Arizona, but in simulations vs. Boston, the Red Sox ride home-field advantage and the dominant pitching of Josh Beckett to win 66.8 percent of series simulations.
The forecast below is based on the designated starters and was run on data available as of October 23. AccuScore's proprietary algorithm weights each game's data, and as each game is played the simulation winning percentages will change. The simulation winning percentages also will change if the projected starters change.
Game | Starters | COL | BOS | |
|
||||
Game 1 | Francis vs. Beckett | 31.2% | 68.8% | |
|
||||
Game 2 | Jimenez vs. Schilling | 35.7% | 64.3% | |
|
||||
Game 3 | Matsuzaka vs. Fogg | 52.1% | 49.2% | |
|
||||
Game 4 | Lester vs. Cook | 56.3% | 43.7% | |
|
||||
Game 5 | Beckett vs. Francis | 45.9% | 54.1% | |
|
||||
Game 6 | Jimenez vs. Schilling | 35.7% | 64.3% | |
|
||||
Game 7 | Fogg vs. Matsuzaka | 39.0% | 61.0% |
|
WIN SERIES | 33.2% | 66.8% |
|
PITCHERS (11): Josh Beckett, Manny Delcarmen, Eric Gagne, Jon Lester, Javier Lopez, Daisuke Matsuzaka, Hideki Okajima, Jonathan Papelbon, Curt Schilling, Kyle Snyder, Mike Timlin.
CATCHERS (2): Doug Mirabelli, Jason Varitek.
INFIELDERS (7): Alex Cora, Eric Hinske, Mike Lowell, Julio Lugo, David Ortiz, Dustin Pedroia, Kevin Youkilis.
OUTFIELDERS (5): Coco Crisp, J.D. Drew, Jacoby Ellsbury, Bobby Kielty, Manny Ramirez.
CATCHERS (2): Chris Iannetta, Yorvit Torrealba.
INFIELDERS (5): Garrett Atkins, Jamey Carroll, Todd Helton, Kazuo Matsui, Troy Tulowitzki.
OUTFIELDERS (7): Jeff Baker, Brad Hawpe, Matt Holliday, Seth Smith, Ryan Spilborghs, Cory Sullivan, Willy Taveras.
Channel 5 showing Papelbon’s dance one more time...
Somebody labeled David Ortiz and Dustin Pedroia “Big Papi” and “Little Papi” today...
bostonchannel.com has video up of the parade already.
Great pics! I’m so jealous.
BTW - I saw the list of Duck Boats - I was lol at the fact they put Johnny Pesky and Dom DiMaggio - the two oldest people with the organization - on the same boat as the medical staff!
I watched the whole thing on NESN and on WCVB Channel 5 streaming on my computer. "Re-sign Lowell!" chants started around Fenway and continued 'til the parade ended. It was loudest when Theo Epstein's duck boat passed thru the crowd. We'll see what 2008 brings...
Glad you had such a great time at the parade today! :o)
Uh oh, da mayah got hurt:
Herald:
Mayor Thomas M. Menino hyperextended his knee when he stumbled climbing stairs at Fenway Park this morning, nearly falling while carrying the World Series trophy.
Dot Joyce, the mayors spokeswoman, said the mayor went directly to see his own doctor after the injury at Fenway Park. The injury required the doctor to place a brace on the mayors knee, Joyce told the Herald.
He went to get it looked at. Hes OK, but he saved the World Series trophy, Joyce said.
After being seen, Menino was taken to the Ritz New Millennium hotel at the corner of Tremont and Avery streets to watch the Red Sox parade.
Gov. Deval Patrick is joining the mayor at the hotel to watch the end of todays rolling rally. The route is packed up to 10-lines deep as Sox players, led by ace closer Jonathan Papelbon doing an Irish jig to the music of the Dropkick Murphys, roll by in Duck Boats and a flatbed truck.
Silliest. Mayor. Ever.
Also in today’s Herald, by WTKK’s Michael Graham
Red Sox win with red state MO
By Michael Graham
Tuesday, October 30, 2007 -
Pity the liberal Red Sox fan. All his life, hes loved the Red Sox - and why?
Because they were Bostons team, of course.
But Boston isnt just the home of Red Sox Nation. Its also the capital city of Blue State America, the heart of Kennedy Country.
For years, the worlds of baseball and left-wing politics experienced a peaceful coexistence, aided by the fact that the Red Sox were eternal underdogs.
Liberals have always been more comfortable around losers.
Many of the same fans whose hearts were broken by Bill Buckner in 1986 also voted Mike Dukakis for president two years later.
And in a September 2007 poll, about 20 percent of self-identified Democrats said the world would be better off if the United States loses the war in Iraq.
Another 20 percent of Democrats said they werent sure.
If youre not sure you want American soldiers to defeat hate-spewing terrorist whack jobs, how do you get up for a baseball game against some guys in Colorado?
But then, Ive never understood how any true progressive could get excited about sports to begin with.
Do liberal educators whove banned tag and wont let kids keep score during soccer games really go home and scream at the TV, The catchers blocking the plate. Youk, knock his head off!?
Everything about Major League Baseball is anti-liberal.
There are no racial quotas, no affirmative action infielders.
Rookies like Dustin Pedroia dont get any more strikes per at bat than seasoned veterans like Manny Ramirez, and none of the umps call the games in Japanese for the benefit of Messrs. Okajima and Matsuzaka.
One set of rules for everyone, applied without regard to race, creed or national origin. Its a Massachusetts liberals nightmare.
It gets worse.
The Sox arent just winning, theyre winning by spending lots and lots of money. Its the kind of income inequality that drives John Edwards to carefully comb his hair in frustration.
The Yankees still lead the league in money dumped on insufferable jerks who choke in the postseason, but the Red Sox payroll is the second highest in baseball ($143 million). Colorado, on the other hand, spent a mere $54 million - about half what the Sox spent to get Dice-K for six years.
How can lefty Sox fans feel good about this? In their lexicon, when people who work harder, have more talent and earn more money than the rest of us go out and buy stuff we cant afford, liberals call that stealing. Its the oppressive power of wealth.
So what is it when the Sox go out and spend $70 million on J.D. Drew? Besides a gross error in judgment, I mean? Wheres the social justice here?
Liberal Sox fans could rise up and demand that their principles be applied to the team they love.
For example, we could stop letting rich teams take the best talent like the Sox did with Dice-K. Instead, the owners could be forced to camp overnight outside the commissioners office the way die-hard fans do at Fenway trying to buy playoff tickets.
Or we pay every player the same, reasonable amount, line them up and let the managers pick teams at the beginning of every season. Isnt that the liberal way?
Or we could abandon liberal principles completely and utterly and continue to let the Red Sox thrash every team between Long Island and L.A. Works for me.
But its a slippery slope, my left-leaning friends. Beware, for soon you may hear the voice of conservatism calling you to the Dark Side.
Then again, it might just be Curt Schilling.
I see Tina Cervasio and Don Orsillo rode with Left Sock and Right Sock. Was RemDawg around? He wasn't in the studio with Tom Caron.
If not, RemDawg and his wife are probably on a plane heading somewhere thousands of miles from Boston...LOL.
MUMBLES Menino! I can't stand the guy...
ah!
“- I dont care how much furniture the Tatelmans gave away. They should not have been on a duck boat with Manny.”
I was fairly shocked not to see john “Live Shot” kerry on one of the boats.
I’ll have to take note of the area next time we’re up in Boston. I have to confess that the only part of Boston I’m really familiar with is the area around Fenway. I actually know NYC far better than Boston... (don’t like that team in da Bronx though).
Same here! I was literally bracing myself for it... John F'in Kerry at Fenway (we booed him in 2004), John F'in Kerry at the 2006 Tour de France. I was certain he or Chappaquiddick Ted or Chris Dodd would be in one of those boats today. Thank goodness common sense prevailed...
Great article.. thanks for posting it.
Good article.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.