Posted on 10/23/2007 5:50:12 PM PDT by GraniteStateConservative
vs.
Curt Schilling vs. Ubaldo Jimenez
AccuScore has run more than 10,000 simulations for every World Series game for Yahoo! Sports, calculating how each team's performance changes in response to game conditions, opponent's abilities, roster moves, weather and more. Each game is simulated one play at a time and the game is replayed a minimum of 10,000 times to generate forecasted winning percentages, player statistics and a variety of game-changing scenarios.
Boston winning 66.8 percent of World Series simulations
AccuScore simulates each playoff game and the entire playoff series 10,000 times. This season, the team that has won over 50 percent of series simulations won their series with one exception: New York won 51 percent of simulations over Cleveland. AccuScore correctly projected Colorado to upset both Philadelphia and Arizona, but in simulations vs. Boston, the Red Sox ride home-field advantage and the dominant pitching of Josh Beckett to win 66.8 percent of series simulations.
The forecast below is based on the designated starters and was run on data available as of October 23. AccuScore's proprietary algorithm weights each game's data, and as each game is played the simulation winning percentages will change. The simulation winning percentages also will change if the projected starters change.
| Game | Starters | COL | BOS | |
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| Game 1 | Francis vs. Beckett | 31.2% | 68.8% | |
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| Game 2 | Jimenez vs. Schilling | 35.7% | 64.3% | |
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| Game 3 | Matsuzaka vs. Fogg | 52.1% | 49.2% | |
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| Game 4 | Lester vs. Cook | 56.3% | 43.7% | |
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| Game 5 | Beckett vs. Francis | 45.9% | 54.1% | |
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| Game 6 | Jimenez vs. Schilling | 35.7% | 64.3% | |
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| Game 7 | Fogg vs. Matsuzaka | 39.0% | 61.0% |
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| WIN SERIES | 33.2% | 66.8% |
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PITCHERS (11): Josh Beckett, Manny Delcarmen, Eric Gagne, Jon Lester, Javier Lopez, Daisuke Matsuzaka, Hideki Okajima, Jonathan Papelbon, Curt Schilling, Kyle Snyder, Mike Timlin.
CATCHERS (2): Doug Mirabelli, Jason Varitek.
INFIELDERS (7): Alex Cora, Eric Hinske, Mike Lowell, Julio Lugo, David Ortiz, Dustin Pedroia, Kevin Youkilis.
OUTFIELDERS (5): Coco Crisp, J.D. Drew, Jacoby Ellsbury, Bobby Kielty, Manny Ramirez.
CATCHERS (2): Chris Iannetta, Yorvit Torrealba.
INFIELDERS (5): Garrett Atkins, Jamey Carroll, Todd Helton, Kazuo Matsui, Troy Tulowitzki.
OUTFIELDERS (7): Jeff Baker, Brad Hawpe, Matt Holliday, Seth Smith, Ryan Spilborghs, Cory Sullivan, Willy Taveras.
From the Boston Herald (Joe Dwinell):
Boston will hold a rolling Red Sox celebration tomorrow (Tue.) at noon, Mayor Thomas M. Menino just announced.
The mayor just formalized the plans at a City Hall press conference, where he urged fans to come out to the city and celebrate the World Series champs. He would not guess the crowd expected to pack the city streets. He did say:
* The rally will kick off at noon at Fenway Park and follow the same route as 2004 — except the team will NOT be heading down the Charles River on Duck Boats. “The team didn’t want to go into the river,” the mayor says. (Plus, nutty fans jumped into the water as the Duck Boats bobbed by.)
* The 7-mile route will begin at Fenway Park and go down Boylston to Tremont, which takes the team past Boston Common to City Hall Plaza.
* The Dropkick Murphys, the team’s adopted rocking Celtic punk band, will be with the team on a flat-bed truck playing all the way.
* The mayor promised ace closer Jonathan Papelbon will dance away, too, if the crowd asks (is there any doubt of that?)
* The parade will end near City Hall Plaza.
* Jumbo screens will be set up on Boston Common, Copley Square and City Hall Plaza.
* The MBTA will be running at full tilt during the mid-day.
* “I just ask everyone to come down and enjoy the day. It will be a fun day in the city of Boston,” the mayor said.
* The mayor said it would have been easier to have the rally on a weekend day, but the players asked to have the parade now so they can go home and see their families after the long season.
* The forecast calls for temperatures in the 60s and sunny skies — a perfect fall afternoon (and then some.)
Weather sounds much better than 2004. Wish it was on the weekend, but I’m sure Red Sox Nation will turn out, even if I can’t.
I have been dreaming of Joe Torre managing the Dodgers for more than a decade now. He’s the one to shape them up. Oh man, I hope this is more than rumor.
Dodgers have got $money to play with. Only question, why dint they do this before?
Sox ownership will be spending the money on bling for everyone.
They don’t skimp.
Earlier this year the owner of the Indy Colts bought Superbowl rings for ALL employees of his team. The IT guys and the janators got rings.
WOW... is that true? Big news if so...
Replacing a guy who didn’t go to his pen with a guy who used his too much!
How’s the day going today by the way?
Thank you both for the ping and info. I am SO disappointed to learn that the Rolling Rally will be tomorrow - on a Tuesday, no less. We can't get out of work and get up to Boston on such short notice, even though Boston is only a couple of hours away. Shoot, why are they doing this on a work day? Wish it could have been on the weekend.
Oh well, we had loads of fun at the 2004 Rolling Rally... wish we could do a repeat of that. It took the Red Sox and the City of Boston more time back then to plan the rally, so it gave us more time to plan time off from work, a hotel, etc. so we could go to the rally.
I just heard on the radio that Jonathan Papelbon will do an "Irish jig" at some point during the rally. I hope at the very least NESN will televise it live so I can get it on tape.
The guys want to go home.
This has been a long, long season.
Oh yeah... $$$ for FOX or whatever network broadcasts the games.
Also, I'm disappointed that the Red Sox Rolling Rally will be held tomorrow - Tuesday - a day my husband and I can't get off from work on such short notice. Oh well... we were lucky to participate in the 2004 Rolling Rally in Boston. I hope NESN televises tomorrow's rally...
Other than the above crankiness... I'm beaming from ear to ear! :o)
Been a long last few weeks here. Also feeling good but no where like 2004. Starting to become like the Yankee fans I think.
:-)
Tito asked that the rally be no later than three days after the WS win. He wants to release the team and let them go home.
I can certainly understand that from the players' perspective. It's been a grind of a long season for them... they deserve their time off.
Then again, so many more die-hard Red Sox fans from all over New England would have had the chance to participate in the rally if it were on Saturday. Even Friday would work for us... Oh well.
You should go if you can... it’ll be lots of fun! We had a great time at the 2004 rally. It killed me to be at the “T” station (I think it was Alewife) at something like 6:30 in the morning to make it into Boston, but it was well worth it... :o)
Then again, so many more die-hard Red Sox fans from all over New England would have had the chance to participate in the rally if it were on Saturday or even Friday.
Geez, FR is slow today, huh?
CONGRATULATIONS to the full roster of the 2007 World Champion Red Sox! (Not sure if I'd congratulate Eric GagMe though)
Hey, that's right... Wily Mo and Joel Pineiro will get World Series rings also?
I know RemDawg, Orsillo, Joe Castiglione et al also get WS rings. My husband and I and some friends were lucky enough to go to a small, intimate speech and book-signing by Joe C. at the Sports Museum outside of Camden Yards in Baltimore the summer of 2005. He graciously let all of us try on his 2004 World Series Ring... the thing was HUGE and weighed a ton!
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