Posted on 10/23/2007 5:50:12 PM PDT by GraniteStateConservative
vs.
Curt Schilling vs. Ubaldo Jimenez
AccuScore has run more than 10,000 simulations for every World Series game for Yahoo! Sports, calculating how each team's performance changes in response to game conditions, opponent's abilities, roster moves, weather and more. Each game is simulated one play at a time and the game is replayed a minimum of 10,000 times to generate forecasted winning percentages, player statistics and a variety of game-changing scenarios.
Boston winning 66.8 percent of World Series simulations
AccuScore simulates each playoff game and the entire playoff series 10,000 times. This season, the team that has won over 50 percent of series simulations won their series with one exception: New York won 51 percent of simulations over Cleveland. AccuScore correctly projected Colorado to upset both Philadelphia and Arizona, but in simulations vs. Boston, the Red Sox ride home-field advantage and the dominant pitching of Josh Beckett to win 66.8 percent of series simulations.
The forecast below is based on the designated starters and was run on data available as of October 23. AccuScore's proprietary algorithm weights each game's data, and as each game is played the simulation winning percentages will change. The simulation winning percentages also will change if the projected starters change.
| Game | Starters | COL | BOS | |
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| Game 1 | Francis vs. Beckett | 31.2% | 68.8% | |
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| Game 2 | Jimenez vs. Schilling | 35.7% | 64.3% | |
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| Game 3 | Matsuzaka vs. Fogg | 52.1% | 49.2% | |
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| Game 4 | Lester vs. Cook | 56.3% | 43.7% | |
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| Game 5 | Beckett vs. Francis | 45.9% | 54.1% | |
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| Game 6 | Jimenez vs. Schilling | 35.7% | 64.3% | |
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| Game 7 | Fogg vs. Matsuzaka | 39.0% | 61.0% |
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| WIN SERIES | 33.2% | 66.8% |
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PITCHERS (11): Josh Beckett, Manny Delcarmen, Eric Gagne, Jon Lester, Javier Lopez, Daisuke Matsuzaka, Hideki Okajima, Jonathan Papelbon, Curt Schilling, Kyle Snyder, Mike Timlin.
CATCHERS (2): Doug Mirabelli, Jason Varitek.
INFIELDERS (7): Alex Cora, Eric Hinske, Mike Lowell, Julio Lugo, David Ortiz, Dustin Pedroia, Kevin Youkilis.
OUTFIELDERS (5): Coco Crisp, J.D. Drew, Jacoby Ellsbury, Bobby Kielty, Manny Ramirez.
CATCHERS (2): Chris Iannetta, Yorvit Torrealba.
INFIELDERS (5): Garrett Atkins, Jamey Carroll, Todd Helton, Kazuo Matsui, Troy Tulowitzki.
OUTFIELDERS (7): Jeff Baker, Brad Hawpe, Matt Holliday, Seth Smith, Ryan Spilborghs, Cory Sullivan, Willy Taveras.
He can’t lay off that pitch to save his life and it plays into the other team’s hands. His scouting report next year is going to read inside on the hands and sinking inside low.
That wasn’t a football game, that was the Boston massacre lol.
I root for the Pats but my favorite team is the Packers. I can’t see anybody beating the Patriots this season. They are in their own league. May be the best football team I have ever seen.
The pitcher breaks up the rallies, especially the 2 out rallies the Sox love.
pretty crazy score. I think the Pats will also beat the Colts. I missed the post game conference: did the press get on Bellichick for ‘ piling on ‘?
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nice bunt.
I did. They were and are FABULOUS!
GO PATS!!
Buck is making Manny sound like Monty Stratton!
Nice job Lester!!
5 strong from Lester. Brilliant performance.
Have you noticed that Lowell has elected to go to second for the force since Ortiz has been at first? He did that last night as well.
Talk about covering the point spread - yikes.
That’s pretty standard with a runner on first. Its the shortest throw.
Didn’t you say you were going to that?
A shorter throw is a safer throw.
They can bitch all they want about not letting up on the gas pedal. They’ll really shriek in Week 15 when we beat the Jets by 70 points.
Brady was out by middle of Q4. The last TD was the back up working a drive.
I didn’t see it, I had to go get dinner, but they probably did.
Most times this season, Lowell would make the throw to Youkilis at first.
He’s got one more inning then he’s done. Sox won’t want him hitting in the 7th.
yes. I was there - my first game. I thought we were in the standard seats but my buddy had the company seats in the West Clubhouse. Pretty darned nice place to watch the game. Watch the game and have a Manhattan on the rocks while your at it.
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